Morning Comment
| Close | Change | % Change | |
| DJ Industrials | 10,447.93 | +127.83 | +1.24% |
| S & P | 1104.51 | +14.41 | +1.32% |
| NASDAQ | 2233.75 | +33.74 | +1.53% |
| NYSE | 7055.03 | +88.78 | +1.27% |
| Russell 2000 | 643.36 | +11.10 | +1.76% |
| 10-Yr T-Yield | 2.7025% | +0.0054% | +0.20% |
| FTSE | 5388.84 | -50.35 | -0.59% |
| NIKKEI 225 | 9226.00 | -75.32 | -0.82% |
Friday’s 54,000 drop in non-farm payrolls proved to be the final straw in a week where the dire forecasts were unfounded. Not only was the 2nd quarter GDP revision better than anticipated because of strength in consumer spending, the positive surprises continued throughout the week. We saw better manufacturing numbers, housing starts, weekly claims, and private sector job growth than expected. The key here is that the numbers aren’t really all that impressive, but they keep topping estimates. That has materially cut into the odds of a double-dip recession and has all but eliminated the risk of deflation. We are still within the “range” of 1010 to 1130, having moved up from a test at 1040 that appears to have been successful, to challenge the upper end of that trading range. There is still a great deal more work to be done. While volume has been anemic, the Breadth Index is poised to confirm an upside breakout. The closer we get to the elections, the less risk that the polls will be wrong. With less than two months until election day, the Republican’s are expected to take back the House, which will give us a more moderate agenda. The resistance and lack of compelling economic data due out this week should make for an opportunity for a consolidation. September is the time where investors should shift from summertime defensive positions, selling into strength, and buying the more economically sensitive investments like Tech, Retail, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials on weakness.
| Last | Hrly Support | Hrly Resist | ST Support | ST Resist | NYSE | NASDAQ | ||
| INDU | 10,447 | 10,014 | 10,455 | 9,622 | 10,719 | ADV | 2353 | 1943 |
| S & P | 1105 | 2149 | 1115 | 1010 | 1130 | DECL | 654 | 616 |
| COMP | 2234 | 2114 | 2272 | 2061 | 2305 | TRIN | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| NDX | 1870 | 1767 | 1900 | 1700 | 1920 | UVOL | 846,155k | 1,468,939 |
| 10-Yld | 2.703 | 2.563 | 2.822 | 2.468 | 2.950 | DVOL | 83,474k | 159,360k |
| RUT | 643 | 616 | 660 | 597 | 672 | TVOL | 946,134k | 1,647,797k |
