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May 23, 2012 9:19 PM EDT
Updated: Sep 7, 2010 6:32 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,447.93 +127.83 +1.24%
S & P 1104.51 +14.41 +1.32%
NASDAQ 2233.75 +33.74 +1.53%
NYSE 7055.03 +88.78 +1.27%
Russell 2000 643.36 +11.10 +1.76%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.7025% +0.0054% +0.20%
FTSE 5388.84 -50.35 -0.59%
NIKKEI 225 9226.00 -75.32 -0.82%

 

Friday’s 54,000 drop in non-farm payrolls proved to be the final straw in a week where the dire forecasts were unfounded. Not only was the 2nd quarter GDP revision better than anticipated because of strength in consumer spending, the positive surprises continued throughout the week. We saw better manufacturing numbers, housing starts, weekly claims, and private sector job growth than expected. The key here is that the numbers aren’t really all that impressive, but they keep topping estimates. That has materially cut into the odds of a double-dip recession and has all but eliminated the risk of deflation. We are still within the “range” of 1010 to 1130, having moved up from a test at 1040 that appears to have been successful, to challenge the upper end of that trading range. There is still a great deal more work to be done. While volume has been anemic, the Breadth Index is poised to confirm an upside breakout. The closer we get to the elections, the less risk that the polls will be wrong. With less than two months until election day, the Republican’s are expected to take back the House, which will give us a more moderate agenda. The resistance and lack of compelling economic data due out this week should make for an opportunity for a consolidation. September is the time where investors should shift from summertime defensive positions, selling into strength, and buying the more economically sensitive investments like Tech, Retail, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials on weakness.


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  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,447 10,014 10,455 9,622 10,719 ADV 2353 1943
S & P 1105 2149 1115 1010 1130 DECL 654 616
COMP 2234 2114 2272 2061 2305 TRIN 0.36 0.37
NDX 1870 1767 1900 1700 1920 UVOL 846,155k 1,468,939
10-Yld 2.703 2.563 2.822 2.468 2.950 DVOL 83,474k 159,360k
RUT 643 616 660 597 672 TVOL 946,134k 1,647,797k