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May 23, 2012 8:32 PM EDT
Updated: Sep 2, 2010 6:28 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,269.47 +254.75 +2.54%
S & P 1080.29 +30.96 +2.95%
NASDAQ 2176.84 +62.81 +2.97%
NYSE 6910.98 +206.83 +3.09%
Russell 2000 624.99 +22.93 +3.81%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.5730% +0.1047% +4.24%
FTSE 5361.68 -4.73 -0.09%
NIKKEI 225 9062.84 +135.82 +1.50%

 

Yesterday’s rally was broad based, showed excellent leadership, and keyed off of important manufacturing data. The ISM was clearly the catalyst, although it does appear that we’ve seen a tendency to buy the start of the month. This is a very important month. Bad Septembers have been so well telegraphed that much of the damage seems to have been pushed forward into August. That doesn’t mean that we should suddenly jump on a freight train and ride the bull market from here. This was a good, solid bounce. Seeing Banks lead, followed by Transports and Capital Goods, is a strong indication that this was a good turn. Volume was decent. Advances were 13 up for every 2 down. 1040 on the S & P held again. The fact that this one level has provided support so many times, it will become a level for technical traders. If broken, I don’t think that it will be the start of something big, but yesterday gave us quite a nice cushion for the time being. We’ve still got a lot of key economic data, including tomorrow’s employment report. There are still many hurdles to overcome, and one good number isn’t going to carry us all of the way. I don’t want to come off as too negative about yesterday’s action. It helps build and broaden the base pattern. However, we could very well back and fill throughout the next month, eventually leading to the year-end rally that we expect. Back in our Cantor Global Outlook 2010 piece, we put a year-end target of 1224 on the S & P. I’m sticking with that number.


click graph for larger image


click graph for larger image


  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,269 9936 10,455 9622 10,719 ADV 2661 2164
S & P 1080 1028 1099 1010 1115 DECL 428 444
COMP 2177 2094 2224 2061 2305 TRIN 0.25 0.19
NDX 1820 1734 1845 1700 1899 UVOL 1,143,364k 2,063,712k
10-Yld 2.573 2.459 2.747 2.266 2.910 DVOL 46,351k 86,398k
RUT 625 587 634 566 664 TVOL 1,190,918k 2,159,868k