Morning Comment
| Close | Change | % Change | |
| DJ Industrials | 9985.81 | -74.25 | -0.74% |
| S & P | 1047.22 | -8.11 | -0.77% |
| NASDAQ | 2118.69 | -22.85 | -1.07% |
| NYSE | 6665.26 | -30.86 | -0.46% |
| Russell 2000 | 599.76 | -5.11 | -0.84% |
| 10-Yr T-Yield | 2.4772% | -0.0568% | -2.24% |
| FTSE | 5162.29 | +6.45 | +0.13% |
| NIKKEI 225 | 8991.06 | +84.58 | +0.95% |
The decline in the Weekly Jobless Claims to 473,000 was certainly good news. It is only one number, but after weeks of seeing the numbers move against expectations, it was a welcome downtick nonetheless. It was not enough to prevent the worries from returning to the market. One last final revision to the consensus forecast for 2nd quarter GDP pushed the expectations down to 1.3%. It’s been falling below the 2.0% level ever since the trade deficit figures were released weeks ago. It is clear that we will see a downward revision. If we come in at 1.4% or better, I would expect a bit of a snapback rally. Resistance is at 1060, which halted the attempts to fill the gap over the past few days. Getting through 1060 should result in a free ride to 1067. Initial support is at 1045, with the May, June and Wednesday’s reversal low all lying between here at 1040. We would touch the support channel line at 1038.80 just below. Technically, we are in an area of decent support. We obviously lack a catalyst. However, a lot of negatives have been built into putting the market back at this level. We continue to see better action in the Russell 2000 and the pullback in the Dollar continued. We like seeing these small divergences, but we don’t expect anything more than a small technical bounce. In the bigger picture, we still have the elections and September quarter end to deal with. Bernanke should reiterate his comments about a weakening economy. We’ll take it as a victory if he doesn’t say that the future is “uncertain”.
| Last | Hrly Support | Hrly Resist | ST Support | ST Resist | NYSE | NASDAQ | ||
| INDU | 9986 | 10,000 | 10,455 | 9622 | 10,719 | ADV | 1070 | 848 |
| S & P | 1047 | 1028 | 1099 | 1010 | 1115 | DECL | 1937 | 1728 |
| COMP | 2119 | 2094 | 2224 | 2061 | 2305 | TRIN | 1.86 | 2.48 |
| NDX | 1769 | 1734 | 1845 | 1700 | 1899 | UVOL | 235,772k | 272,118k |
| 10-Yld | 2.477 | 2.459 | 2.747 | 2.266 | 2.910 | DVOL | 793,452k | 1,492,445k |
| RUT | 600 | 587 | 634 | 566 | 664 | TVOL | 1,045,313k | 1,804,516k |
