Morning @ Cantor
Morning
@ Cantor 8/23 Today’s
Stories From Cantor Fitzgerald Sal
Catrini (908) 517-5067 CONTENTS: All
Headings Are Functioning Links
Sector News: Energy, Industrials, Transports, TMT, Materials, Autos, Fins, Real Estate, Consumer, Gaming/Lodging, HC, Europe
Trading Wrap, Asia
Trading Wrap
Investment Banking Wrap: M&A, Money Raising
o
US Stock Futures
o
S&P Futures up 6
, at sessions highs at 7am et …. Europe markets: at highs , up 0.9%
at 7am et
o
Euro PMIs came out mixed…….EUR trades dn…but
mostly recovers by 7 am et
o
A new round of takeover talk and a rising
mining sector have given leading shares a lift at the start of the week's
trading.
o
Miners leads Monday on spec mining tax in
Australia may be scrapped post election..BBG
o
Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days,
Third H.O. Event In One Week from
zero hedge
o
Three-Month Euribor Rises for First Time in
11 Days
o
Libor : 3-month:
Dollar: 0.318% vs prior 0.329%
o
Crude up small… Oil Trades Near Six-Week Low
o
Hedge Funds Cut Gasoline Bets Most Since
2006: BBG
o
this morning, spot gold is up small to
$1228.50
o
Spot gold was down $4.50 on Friday..for
the week: spot gold was up 1%,
o
coffee at new 12 yr highs
o
Prices for coffee beans have returned to
nearly 13-year highs, defying expectations for a selloff ahead of Brazil's
harvest. WSJ
o Cocoa
prices likely to rise – WSJ
o this
morning, base metals are little changed…aluminum is up 1%
o The Baltic Dry was up another 4.2% on Friday, up
11.6% for the week
o
FX stories: USD mixed to dn at 7am et
§
The dollar edged lower through the Asian
session Monday, while the yen and Swiss franc continued recent gains on worries
about growth prospects in the developed economies.
§
EUR trades dn…but mostly recovers by 7 am
et
§
USD/JPY
falls on informal Shirakawa-Kan talks with no mention of FX intervention – TTN
o
Investors
have increased their bets against the euro after six straight weeks of paring
their anti-euro bets, according to data released Friday.
§
Net
speculative bets, called shorts, against the euro were at 14,600 with a value
of $2.3 billion in the week ended Tuesday, compared to the 3,700 contracts with
a value of $595 million in data from the week prior, according to weekly
Commitments of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission on Friday afternoon.
o
The GBP was stung a bit by a BOE/CEPR
Roundtable in which it believed that
a weaker GBP was key in the resilience of inflation
§
Swiss National Bank (Dow Jones)--The Swiss
National Bank could still intervene in currency markets should that become
necessary to maintain price stability despite having accumulated massive
foreign exchange reserves from past interventions, the central bank's president
says Saturday in a newspaper interview.
o Treasuries: Rates flattish at 7am et
o
Investors Gobble Up Long-Term Tsys The
30-year Treasury bond enjoyed its best week since May, as investors burrowed
further into the haven of government debt amid signs of a weaker economy.
o
Even
with a decline Friday, the price of the so-called long bond rose sharply on the
week, driving the yield, which moves in the opposite direction, down to 3.661%.
o
Other Treasury debt also gained during the
week, but longer-dated Treasurys did the best. The 10-year note's yield fell to
2.614%, while the two-year note yield fell to 0.496%, just above its record
low.
o
The net effect was a narrower gap between
long-term and short-term interest rates
o
Rethinking
The 'Long' Bond (ie 100 ye bonds!) – WSJ discusses
§
London
Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard commented on the efforts by China to diversify its
foreign exchange reserves. In particular he noted various countries, including
China, Japan and the UK, have decreased treasury positions. As some countries
have lowered their exposures to US government bonds, US citizens have increased
savings and investments in bond funds.
o
Danielle forecast to be hurricane mid-week from USATODAY.com
o
The hurricane center predicted that Danielle
will become the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season by late Tuesday. Its
potential effect on the USA is uncertain.
o Overseas
Action
o
Europe markets: at
highs , up 0.9% at 7am et
§ Mixed
PMIs out of Europe today weigh on trade
·
The euro zone's private sector expanded at a
slower pace in August, weighed down by both the manufacturing and services
sectors, but remained well above the key break-even level of 50, a survey by
financial-information firm Markit showed Monday
·
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703846604575446771415258984.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews
o Asia:
Nikkei (0.69%); Hang Seng (0.44%); Shanghai Comp (0.1%)
o Japan fell
on disappointment with talks held between Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of
Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa about the strength of the yen; Kan reportedly
did not request that any monetary policy steps be taken to counter the strength
o Australia's stock index trades
little changed, but outperforms some of its regional counterparts despite what
will likely be the country's first hung parliament in 70 years
o Reforms
to China’s political system are necessary if the nation’s rapid economic growth
is to be maintained, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao says, according to state media
reports.
o Construction
Bank bets estimates in China
§ China
Construction Bank (601939.CH) edged down on a report that a housing
price fall of 60% would cause an insignificant increase in the default rate on
loans the bank issues. SA
o
Japan's stimulus, forex plans
remain uncertain
§
MarketWatch) -- A much-awaited meeting
between Japan's government and central bank to discuss obstacles facing the
economy took place over the telephone Monday
o
Japan
DJP official stated that he was not optimistic regarding the rise in yen and
its impact on the country's employment scenario. He stressed that it needed to
take comprehensive steps on economy – TTN
o
Moody’s
Cuts Bahrain Credit Ratings, Citing Budget
o Data:
§
Euro
Zone Aug Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 55.0 v 56.1e; PMI Services: 55.6 v 55.4e;
PMI Composite: 56.1 v 56.3e
§
France Aug Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 54.7 v
53.4e
§
Germany Aug Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 58.2 v
60.5e; PMI Services: 58.5 v 56.2e
§
Thailand had a strong Q2
o Economics duetoday:
o Chicago
Fed National Activity Index at 08:30 ET
o Israeli Central Bank Base Rate Announcement:
Consensus expectations are for the base rate to remain unchanged at 1.75%.
There is a less than 10% chance that the rate could be raised by 25bps to 2.00% - TTN
o 13:00 (US) Treasury to Sell 30-Year TIPS
- Earnings:
o There are no major companies due to report
this session
o
Coast Guard starts another round of hearings
on the Deepwater Horizon explosion
o
Kenneth Feinberg, who today will start
drawing from a $20b escrow fund for
Gulf oil spill victims, hasn’t decided
whether they must waive their right to sue companies involved if they
accept final reimbursement
o
National Assoc. of Insurance Commissioners
holds 3pm conference call; watch for
any comments on medical-spending rules
for health insurers
o
Tropical Storm Frank, off the southern coast
of Mexico, may become a hurricane
later today, the National Weather Service
said. Atlantic Tropical Storm Danielle may become a hurricane within 24 hours.
o Other key upcoming events:
o
JAZZ
dn 40% after hrs… Jazz Pharmaceuticals will hold conference
call regarding the FDA panel vote on JZP-6 (rekinla) for fibromyalgia; the call
will take place at 0830ET on Monday, 23-Aug. dial in 866.713.8566 in the U.S.
or 617.597.5325 outside the U.S. and entering 35059911
o
Federal investigators again try to question BP spill
witnesses (Monday) from Wash
Post
o A federal investigative panel will begin its next round
of hearings Monday into the Deepwater Horizon disaster and call witnesses who
can address alleged shortcuts in the drilling of the BP oil well, problems with
the failed blowout preventer and the confused scene after an explosion on the
rig.
o Up to
3 IPOs expected this week
o Homebuilder
TOL reports tues
o BHP
reports mid week
o Friday
brings the first revision of second-quarter GDP
o US
Treasury is scheduled to issue $102 billion in 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes
o Specialty
teen retailers Guess, American Eagle and J. Crew announce earnings
o Tuesday's
primaries
§ Midterm
primaries held in Alaska, Arizona and Florida.
o President
Obama and his family on vacation in Martha's Vineyard, until Aug. 29
o
New Proxy Rule Puts Heat on Firms from WSJ.com
§ Stockholders are set to gain greater clout to elect
corporate directors on Wednesday when the Securities and Exchange Commission is
expected to finalize a "proxy access" rule.
o all
eyes turn to this week's Jackson Hole Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium
§ 10
a.m.Friday: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on the economic outlook, at the
Kansas City Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
§ public
Fed venue (and last) before the September 21 FOMC meeting, many will be focused
on Bernanke's speech to see if he will telegraph the purchases of even more
securities – ZH
§ it
will be worth watching whether Fed Chairman Bernanke will comment in his opening
remarks on the recent data disappointments and/or the ongoing debate on the
appropriate stance of monetary policy
§ And
finally something quite odd about this year's meeting - as Bloomberg's Scott Lanman points out, the
head of the FRBNY's trading desk, better known as the PPT, Brian Sack, is not
invited to this meeting for the first time
o Top
M&A
o HSBC nears £4bn deal for South Africa's
Nedbank – Telegraph
§ Old Mutual could sell big piece of Nedbank –
BBG
o
S Eight Republican Senators ask Obama
administration to look at Huawei's bid to supply equipment to Sprint Nextel –
NYT
o
CPB Campbell Soup thought to be planning
£1.5B bid for United Biscuits's biscuit-making arm – Guardian
o POT Stories busy….
§ POTASHCORP STILL REJECTS BHP OFFER, BEEN APPROACHED
BY OTHERS – press release
·
POTASHCORP IN TALKS WITH SEVERAL THIRD
PARTIES ON ALTERNATIVES
§
Consortium
Led By China's Hopu Studying Potash Bid – DJ
·
A consortium led by Chinese private-equity
fund Hopu Investment Management Co. is studying the feasibility of a bid for
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., a
person familiar with the situation said Monday.
·
The
consortium is made up of investors from Canada, the U.S. and Asia, and includes
at least two sovereign wealth funds, the knowledgeable person said. No decision
has been finalized yet on whether to proceed with a bid for the Canadian fertilizer
maker, the person said.
§
BHP,
POT The Trader believes BHP Billiton could raise its offer
for Potash to $163 thought at this price the deal wouldn't add to profits until
2014, according to Credit Suisse.
§
Sinochem,
Vale eye Potash: Business Spectator
o
APD,
APD Even without Airgas, shares of Air Products should
appreciate nicely, says Barron's
o CVX:
South Korea's National Pension Service is seeking to buy 23% of U.S.
pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline from Chevron for an estimated $845 million.
WSJ
o Terex, Akamai: WSJ(8/21)Options Report:Takeover Bets Play
Out In Terex, Akamai
o Retail for Sale: Time for Private Equity to Shop –
CNBC
§ Three
names to watch are: American
Eagle Outfitters, BJ's
Wholesale and La-Z-Boy,
§ http://www.cnbc.com/id/38787249
o SABMiller, Asahi Eye Foster's Beer; No Formal
Bid Yet from CNBC
§ Foster’s (FGL.AU) jumped 8% on reports that
SABMiller (SAB.LN) may offer £7B for the group’s beer arm.
o Nearly
$85 billion of transactions have been announced since last Monday, the highest weekly sum since the week of
Dec. 13, 2009, when Exxon Mobil Corp. announced its $40 billion acquisition of
XTO Energy Inc., according to Dealogic
§ One factor may be the cash burning in their
pockets. U.S. public companies carried $2.03 trillion in cash and short-term
investments at the end of the first quarter, according to data from FactSet
Research. That's about 57% above the level at the same tome in 2006.
o
Dealmakers seize the
moment on mergers and acquisitions from Financial Times
§
Dealmakers are rushing to capitalise on a
window of opportunity to launch transactions, after volatile financing
markets for much of this year kept a lid on a sustainable recovery in mergers
and acquisitions
§
Deal volumes, which looked sluggish at best
at the half-year stage, are running almost 20 per cent ahead of 2009, after a
strong showing in July and August
o WSJ:
Price For 510 Madison Ave Among Highest Since Downturn Began
o
Top $ Raising
o
Barron's
cover story says the General Motors IPO could value the car maker at $60B
o Credit markets stories:
·
Bankers Pitch 100-Year
Bonds
o
Bond investors are buying almost anything the
market throws at them. Now some bankers want to put those appetites to a full
test and have begun sounding out investors about 100-year bonds.
o
Europe leads way for
Yankee bond sales from Financial Times
§
Non-US companies have issued record volumes
of US bonds this year, as they turn to dollar markets to access cheap funding
o
Banks
undervaluing our property,say small firms seeking loans from Telegraph Finance
§ A
lobby group says that banks are undervaluing the property which small companies
offer as security against loans, further inhibiting access to finance.
o Ireland's NAMA will apply a discount of more
than 60% to a second batch of loans it is buying from Anglo Irish
Bank Corp
o Money flows: NYT on not really new theme…. Investors
withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven
months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are
choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds.
o
If that pace continues, more money will be
pulled out of these mutual funds in 2010 than in any year since the 1980s, with
the exception of 2008, when the global financial crisis peaked
o
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/business/22invest.html?_r=2&hp
o Big Derivatives fight: Fighting Flares on New Rules For Street – WSJ
§ Banks, companies and trade associations challenged
federal regulators Friday over the controversial question of how to regulate
derivatives under the new Dodd-Frank financial revamp, the first big day of
posturing since the law was enacted last month.
§ The meetings, particularly a three-hour roundtable hosted
jointly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and
Exchange Commission, illustrate how Wall Street's attention has shifted from
Congress
§ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703579804575441750105850046.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fxml%2Frss%2F3_7011+%28WSJ.com%3A+What%27s+News+US%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
o Muni’s:
o Avoiding
a Muni Wreck from Barron's
·
The SEC's move against New Jersey was just
its first step to make muni bonds more transparent
o
Connecticut
Muni Ratings Case Against S&P To Proceed – DJ
§
Connecticut Attorney General Richard
Blumenthal said Friday the Superior Court has rejected Standard & Poor's
motion to dismiss his case against the credit rating agency for allegedly
giving artificially low credit ratings to municipalities
§
Those
ratings cost taxpayers millions of dollars in unnecessary bond insurance and
higher interest rates, Blumenthal said in a press release.
§
His
case against S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos. (MHP), as well as companion
cases against Moody's Corp. (MCO) and Fitch Inc., will all now advance in state
court.
§
"We are seeking to hold Wall Street
accountable to Main Street for millions of dollars unfairly imposed on
Connecticut taxpayers," Blumenthal said.
o
Cities
Privatize Assets Amid Cuts from WSJ.com
§ Cities and states across the nation are selling and
leasing everything from airports to zoos—a fire sale that could help plug
budget holes now but worsen their financial woes over the long run.
o Fed Watch:
o Some
Fed officials losing spots at annual Jackson Hole retreat from Wash Post
§
Some Federal Reserve officials accustomed to
an automatic invitation to the central bank's annual mountainside symposium in
Jackson Hole, Wyo., came up empty-handed this year
o Fed
Officials Push FDIC-Like Backstop for ABS Markets from American Banker
§ Two Fed economists argue that an explicit backstop of
certain asset-backed securities could ensure the stability of the system in
future financial crises and help eliminate the concept of "too big to
fail" institutions
o
Macro negative:
o
Eight
US Banks Fail in Four States
o
Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse
of the U.S. Dollar
§
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
§
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100823.htm
o
Upper-Income Taxpayers Plan for Increase WSJ
§
An emerging group of higher-income taxpayers
assume they will see higher taxes next year, no matter what Congress does to
address the expiring tax cuts from the Bush administration.
o
U.S.
Reviews Tech Spending from WSJ.com
§ Obama administration officials are considering
overhauling 26 troubled federal technology projects valued at as much as $30
billion as part of a broader effort by White House budget officials to cut
spending.
o
Loan-Mod Program Loses Steam WSJ
§
The number of homeowners who began
government-sponsored loan-modifications in July grew by the slowest rate since
the Obama administration's program began 18 months ago and was dwarfed by the
number of borrowers whose modifications were canceled
o
China
bank property stress test finds risk: report from Reuters
§
A
50-percent drop in China's property prices will lead to a surge in bad real
estate loans for Chinese lenders, a local newspaper reported, citing the
results of the latest round of a Chinese bank stress test.
o
More suppliers going
bust from
Telegraph Finance
§
The number of businesses going bust that
supply goods and services to the public sector has increased by 47pc, as
government spending cuts lead to delayed and cancelled contracts.
o
“The Spanish government has been increasingly
resorting to the social security reserve fund to
buy its bonds.”
o
Moody's
released tidbits of its Semi Annual European Sovereign Outlook and noted
that the European economic growth was seen lower compared to other region of
the world. The report suggested that lower growth posed downside risks for its
sovereign ratings. Financial crisis and divergences to challenge EU
'cornerstone' but added that the fiscal consolidation could be positive for
growth and that the stronger focus on government spending was 'encouraging'.
Greece debt stabilization could occur before 2013
o
BOE/CEPR
Roundtable: Commented that it saw signs that the global economy might be
losing momentum with risks to growth largely to the downside. It believed that
British Pound currency decline was key in the resilience of inflation and that
the broad consensus that QE would be effective if used again - TTN
o
Macro Positive:
o
The Baltic Dry was up another 4.2% on Friday,
up 11.6% for the week
o
Buybacks Over Deals from WSJ.com
§ A
recent flurry of merger activity captured investors' imagination last week.
While no one is calling for a new
mergers boom, many are looking for companies to increasingly spread some of
that money in other ways—namely through dividends and buybacks.
o
Doug Kass: Soon Time to
'Re-Risk' from
CNBC
o
Tokyo Steel plans Sept
across-the-board price rise from Business Spectator
·
Japan's biggest construction steelmaker cites
rebound in steel scrap costs
o
German
Businesses See Record 3.4% Growth In 2010 –AFP
§ The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) now
expects
the country's economy to grow by a record 3.4% this year, its chief Martin
Wansleben said Saturday.
§ "The recovery is expanding," Wansleben told the
weekly Der Spiegel, which is to hit newsstands on Monday
§ Businesses are investing again and "even consumption
is accelerating thanks to favorable developments in the labour market," he
added
§ The forecast is
considerably higher than the revised 3.0% forecast issued Thursday by the
Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, and would see Europe's largest economy tie
the growth record it set in 2006.
o German Deficit Could
Slip Under EUR60B - Finance Minister(AFP)
§ Germany's budget deficit could be less than EUR60 billion
($76.3 billion) thanks to a strong upturn in the country's economy, Finance
Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a weekend interview. Whereas the government
has forecast a shortfall of EUR65 billion, "I see good chances that we
will finish under 60 billion euros this year," Schaeuble told the
Rheinische Post regional newspaper.
o A Glut of Hiring Alternatives
o
Instead of bringing on full-time talent,
small employers are increasingly using temporary workers based in the U.S. and
overseas
o
At one time, Carroll says, he had a sales
staff of seven 20-somethings, but he found their work ethic lacking. "I
felt like I wasn't doing the business; I was babysitting the employees,"
he says. Increasing commissions didn't help. "Millennials have a very different view of work. Money doesn't drive
them, because they perceive that they don't need it,"
o Russia Boosts U.S.
Assets in Reserves as It Cuts U.K. Holdings -
BBG
o
Russia boosted the share of U.S. government
notes and bonds in its reserves by 2 percentage points at the end of last year
as it decreased holdings of U.K. assets, the central bank said.
o
o
flash crash stories:
o
Ominously, Flash Crash Still Baffles from DealBook
§ Months
later, analysts are still seeking the cause of a quick and mysterious plunge of
the stock markets; some suspect a conspiracy.
§ the
bizarre patterns might have been the result of a Wall Street version of
cyberwarfare.
§ The Securities
and Exchange Commission and the Commodity
Futures Trading Commission plan to issue a final report on their
findings in September.
§ http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/business/23flash.html?_r=1&dbk
o Brokers face
fines over role in flash crash - link from Financial Times
§ Brokers who allowed high-frequency traders to have
access to the markets without undertaking proper checks on them face potential
fines as part of a clampdown following the “flash crash”, the head of a US
watchdog said on Sunday
o America no longer needs
Chinese money, for now from Telegraph Finance
o
As the Sino-American showdown in the South
China and Yellow Seas escalates into the gravest superpower clash since the
Cold War, the United States cannot wisely rely on China to help fund its budget
deficit for any longer.
o
Healthcare
stock in focus pre-open Monday
o
JAZZ dn
40% after hrs…data
o
WCRX
up 2% , Warner Chilcott said it reached an agreement
to amend its credit facilities in order to add another $1.5 billion in new term
loans, which will help pay for a previously announced special dividend. But the
maker of branded prescription women's health-care and dermatology products also
reduced its full-year earnings outlook as a result. Shares rose 2.2% to $28.75
after hours.
o
CPIX dn
9%...Cumberland Pharmaceuticals said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has
extended its review of its drug Acetadote in patients with non-acetaminophen
acute liver failure. Shares sank 8.6% to $5.50 in after-hours trading.
o
AU Optronics (2409.TT) fell 2% after a
US court barred some of the company’s top executives from leaving the US as a
result of an LCD panel price-fixing probe.
o
Miners
leads Monday on spec mining tax in Australia may be
scrapped post election..BBG, CNBC
o
Demand
positive: Shares of Kingspan Group surged 9% on
Monday after the Irish building-materials firm posted operating profit growth
for the first time in three years, helped by a recovery in U.S. and Central
European markets, and forecast “robust” revenue growth in the second half. MW
o
Demand positive: Gome Profit Surges 66% on Rising China Demand for
Appliances…….Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd., the Chinese retailer
suing its billionaire founder, Huang Guangyu, said first-half profit rose 66
percent as Chinese consumer spending rebounded - BBG
o
AIG: Reuters) - American International Group's
aircraft leasing unit ILFC repaid nearly $4 billion of U.S. loans after raising
new debt from investors
o
Political Stories:
o
Will
Oz Set Pattern for Obama? WSJ BLOG
§
If once is chance, twice is coincidence and a
third time is a pattern, the American left better pray there isn't a pattern.
§
First
it was the U.K. choosing right-leaning David Cameron in May and last night,
Australia drifted even more right than anyone expected. With U.S. Senate
campaigns set to ratchet up in the coming months and a federal election there
about two years away, the Australia is trying to become a calling card for
those on the right the world over.
§
"I reckon we're nearly there. And up
next, [U.S. President Barack] Obama," said Timothy Sutton, a Coalition
supporter and Australian land broker on the floor of Tony Abbott's election
headquarters party at the Four Seasons in Sydney last night.
o
Dems
urge Obama to take a stand
§
He has left wide swaths of the Democratic
Party uncertain of his core beliefs.
§
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41356.html#ixzz0xPza03eT
o
GOP's
Cash Handicap Raises Concerns from WSJ.com
§ The Republican National Committee's $5.3 million war
chest for the final stretch of the midterm campaign—half the amount of its
Democratic counterpart—is causing anxiety among GOP operatives
o
Senate Landscape Shifts Farther in Favor of
GOP from
CQ
§
It’s hit that point in the election cycle
where the competitive nature of Congressional races are shifting rapidly.
Unfortunately for Democrats, the overwhelming majority of those shifts are in
favor of Republicans.
o
Dean: Democrats Will Do Better Than Expected
on Nov. 2 from
Roll Call
§
Former Democratic National Committee Chairman
Howard Dean predicted Sunday that Democrats will fare better than expected this
November, urging them to put aside their differences and "let's win."
o
Iran threatens to attack
U.S. interests around the world if provoked – The
Hill
§
Iran unveiled an unmanned "ambassador of
death" drone Sunday as a senior official warned against any
"illogical move" by America.
o
Israel Knesset Member Declares "We Are
Preparing For War" from zero hedge
o
IAEA
Maintains Monitoring Of Iran's First Nuclear Plant
§
(AFP)--The United Nations atomic watchdog
IAEA said Saturday that it continued to monitor Iran's nuclear power plant in
Bushehr, which was fired up amid suspicions by world powers about Tehran's
nuclear intentions. "The International Atomic Energy Agency
regularly inspects the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran," IAEA press
officer Ayhan Evrensel said in a statement. "The Agency is taking
the appropriate verification measures in line with its established safeguards
procedures," he added.
o
Protests,
Rhetoric Feed Jihadists' Fire from WSJ.com
§ Islamic radicals are seizing on protests against a
planned Islamic community center near Ground Zero as a propaganda opportunity
and are stepping up anti-U.S. chatter and threats on their websites.
o
Meeting to Clarify North
Korea's Path from WSJ.com
§
The biggest meeting of North Korea's ruling
party in 44 years may give a first look at its potential next leader, but
another surprise might be in store: a step away from dictatorship to collective
rule.
o
China Premier Wen calls
for political reform: report from Reuters
§
China
has to pursue political reform to safeguard its economic health, Premier Wen
Jiabao said during a visit to the booming town of Shenzhen, the official Xinhua
news agency reported.
o
Los Angeles 'Big One'
Could Come Sooner Than Expected: Study from Discovery News
§
Strong earthquakes along the San Andreas
fault are a lot more frequent than previously thought
o
Americans confused about healthcare reform:
poll from
Reuters
§ "The healthcare debate raised people's expectations
and there is now disappointment as a result that the problem isn't
solved,"
o
NYC Transit Worker Tests Positive For Tuberculosis -NY Post
o
Shootout
Near School Shocks Mexico from WSJ.com
§ A shootout in front of a prestigious international school
in Monterrey has fueled fears that violence is spreading even to wealthy areas
of Mexico that had been seen as safe.
o
South
Korea free trade pact back on U.S. agenda from Wash Post
o
WSJ(8/21) Prosecutors Eye WikiLeaks Charges
§
Pentagon lawyers have concluded that online
whistleblower group WikiLeaks acted illegally in disclosing thousands of
classified Afghanistan war reports and other material, and federal prosecutors
are exploring possible criminal charges
o
Fund Stories
o Buffett's Semi-Secret Stock-Picker Set to Retire –
CNBC link
§
Lou Simpson will retire at the end of the
year.
§
For decades, he's been quietly,
independently, and profitably managing the now $4 billion investment portfolio
at Geico, the
Berkshire Hathaway insurance subsidiary.
§
Buffett will take over those
responsibilities, but there's some
speculation Simpson's departure could create an opportunity for Li
Lu, the Chinese investor who Charlie Munger says is a
"foregone conclusion" to become one of Berkshire's top decision
makers on investments
o
TPG
Capital (Reuters) - TPG
Capital [TPG.UL], one of the world's biggest private equity firms, said on
Monday that it aims to raise 5 billion yuan ($736.4 million) in its first
yuan-denominated fund in Shanghai
o
Hedge
Fund Heavyweight Paulson Makes New Housing Bet - cnbc
§
will be throwing his hat into the race to
acquire residential land—and dirt cheap.
§
Paulson, who manages the $31 billion Paulson
& Co. fund, has made a "stalking horse" bid of $42.4 million to
acquire the assets of Engle Homes, which includes land and lots in Arizona
targeted for more than 8,000 homes, and nine completed residences.
§
http://www.cnbc.com//id/38789781
o
US
Said To End Probe Of Fund Managers' Bets On Euro –Reuters
§
The U.S. Justice Department has dropped an
investigation into whether a group of hedge fund managers conspired at an
"idea dinner" to drive down the value of the euro, Reuters reports
Friday, citing three people close to some of the funds. Officials with
the department's antitrust division recently told representatives of several
hedge funds that the six-month inquiry had been closed, the sources said. Full
story at http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67J4AO20100820
o
Hedge Fund Corners the
Cocoa Market from
zero hedge
§
London based Anthony Ward’s Amajaro hedge
fund built up a billion dollar long position in the cocoa futures market which
traders expected him to unwind going into expiration
§
The move triggered some extreme volatility in
the markets. The difficulties of transporting and storing this quantity of a
perishable commodity boggle the mind. Ward, a long time successful cocoa
trader, is clearly taking advantage of a poor crop this year in the Ivory
Coast, a major producer, betting on a price rise. The move was so unexpected
that traders and big consumers, like Cadbury and Nestle, have been caught
short. Although these giants hedge their requirements years in advance in the
futures markets, no one expected this amount of product to be taken off the
market so quickly
o
Hedge witch hunt from NY Post
§
One of New York's wealthiest hedge-fund gurus
is on a witch hunt to track down the person who leaked his fund's latest
quarterly investor letter.
§
the move this week by Paul Singer, founder of
$17 billion New York hedge fund Elliott Management Corp., to actually seek a
court order to force a media outlet to divulge its sources, is extremely rare.
o Equity
Recap
o
The M&A action continued its heavy pace,
especially .vs. your typical august doldrums, in spite of that the
market found a way to work its way lower but not much to move the needle.
Trend is still down and some new technical’s have been established on our way back
down to ultimately 870(that’s what the only people with money and conviction
feel). The economic and macro data still is nothing to get excited about and
the talk is not a matter of yes or no but a matter of when, on the
question of when the qe will stop. Corporate earnings have been better for the
most part but the guidance in a lot of cases has been cloudy and if you
check with most retailers, things have not been too rosy there. That has
been my point, if we all would take the peter lynch type of approach and ask 7
out of 10 of our friends outside of wall street, how things are, you’ll get the
cancer has been removed but the patient is still in the hospital. The action
has been quiet on the trading front with most pm’s and analyst out enjoying their
last week or 2 with their kids before they go back to school. Technically we
took out that 1,071 level which had held prior to this, next up sp 1000. From
what we’ve seen, there have been guys adding to tech, retail being covered, and
some real selling but nothing to tilt the needle. Indexes for the week
Dow - .81% / S&P 500 - .65% / Nasdaq
+.33% / Russell 2000 - .46%
o
Billy Clark and Team
o Credit
Market Wrap
o
Much quieter last week in high yield primary
issuance versus recent deluge, with $2bn raised on the week by 6 issuers.
o
Interesting to note first signs of push back
from investors
o
Expect to see continued investment grade
issuance, which was led this week by banks and financials, given the absolute
treasury yields making it very enticing for issuers
o
HY secondary flows muted with late summer
setting in...
o Rates
Commentary
o
Another day and another volatile curve day.
30yrs were once again the star or should I say 2/36’s and that hump of the long
end yield curve. Yesterday there was a very large (9k) ultra bond contract
trade in December contracts. Bottom line: as a result of yesterdays trade the
2/36’s (CTD on ultra bond contract) outperformed 2/26 bonds (CTD on regular
bond contract by close to 3bp’s. That’s a rather significant DV01! From today’s
trading action we surmise that the seller is still short ultra contracts (i.e. 2/36)
and long 30yr bonds and regular bond contracts. We imagine that ‘36/’37 paper
will remain rich over the near term. In addition to this the nominal yield
curve flattened sharply, once again, as the need for yield both on domestic and
global level continues to grip the credit markets.
o
The market did suffer late afternoon as
equity markets managed to stage a modest comeback from earlier levels (-1% to
close only -.5% lower). Treasuries, particularly the middle part of the curve
(5’s-10’s) led us lower with 5/30’s flattening another 5.5 bp’s bringing this
recent flattening move in roughly 30bp’s since the last bond auction. There was
a large 5/30 flattener put though early this morning through the futures
contracts. Also of note is the 10/30
spread which closed today in 3.5bp’s to 104 but 2/10’s steepening out to 212
for a 3bp gain. Certainly not a market for the faint of heart. We still expect
modest flattening in the near term as the market will get approximately $250B
in new debt next week ( includes bill through 30 yr tips) plus continued talk
of China lightening up on US holdings. Obviously we will see how everything
pans out. We have maintained small flattening trade and look to add to these
over time. We are also better sellers of the 2’s, 5’s, and 7 year rolls so
please feel free to enquire.
o
Primary Dealer
SECTOR NEWS WITH MACRO IMPLICATIONS
o CVX:
South Korea's National Pension Service is seeking to buy 23% of U.S.
pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline from Chevron for an estimated $845 million.
WSJ
o HP Barron's feature says Helmerich & Payne will continue to benefit from a move to new
high performance drilling rigs
o Feinberg Says Spill Victims May Be Able to
Sue Some Companies – BBG
o Hedge
Funds Cut Gasoline Bets Most Since 2006: BBG
o Germany May Drop a Planned Nuclear Tax,
Sueddeutsche Says
o
Peak
oil alarm revealed by secret official talks – guardian
o Behind
government dismissals of 'alarmist' fears there is growing concern over
critical future energy supplies
o Speculation
that government ministers are far more concerned about a future supply crunch
than they have admitted has been fuelled by the revelation that they are
canvassing views from industry and the scientific community about "peak
oil".
o http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/peak-oil-department-energy-climate-change
o
Federal investigators again try to question
BP spill witnesses (Monday) from Wash Post
o A federal investigative panel will begin its next round
of hearings Monday into the Deepwater Horizon disaster and call witnesses who
can address alleged shortcuts in the drilling of the BP oil well, problems with
the failed blowout preventer and the confused scene after an explosion on the
rig.
o
BP
Begins to Remove Drilling Pipe – WSJ
§
BP said that it has begun an attempt to
remove the drilling pipe from the ruptured well that unleashed the Deepwater
Horizon spill.
o
Compensation czar takes charge of $20 billion
BP fund from Reuters
§ NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - A $20 billion compensation fund
for economic victims of the BP Gulf oil spill opens for business on Monday amid
accusations that the rules established by its administrator are unfair.
o
Oil-Fund Czar Vows Ample Payouts from WSJ.com
§ Kenneth Feinberg, administrator of the $20 billion fund
set up to compensate victims of the Deepwater Horizon spill, said he aims to
ensure claimants would be more likely to obtain higher and more-expeditious
payouts from the fund than through litigation.
o
Ex-Chevron
Chief Joins Saudi Oil Company Board – WSJ
§
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah issued a decree
to appoint former Chevron Corp. Chief Executive and Chairman David J. O'Reilly
to the board of directors of Saudi Arabian Oil.
o
U.S.
Saw Drill Ban Killing Many Jobs– WSJ
§
The Obama administration disclosed its
deliberations about the effects of its moratorium on deepwater drilling, saying
it would cost 23,000 jobs and freeze up to $10.2 billion in investment.
o
Higher
Oil Prices Boost Sinopec's First-Half Profit – WSJ
§
China Petroleum & Chemical, also known as
Sinopec, said its first-half net profit rose 6.7% as higher oil prices and fuel
sales offset lower refining margins.
o
Chinese
battery and car maker BYD Co. (1211.HK)
said Sunday its first-half net profit more than double from a year earlier,
supported by Beijing's measures to boost car sales. BYD, which is
10%-owned by MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., a unit of Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA, BRKB)
o
Dana
To Bolster Defenses Against KNOC Bid-Dana Petroleum PLC (DNX.LN) will seek to
bolster its defenses this week with interim results and more details of a
planned acquisition, the Mail on Sunday reports. According to the
newspaper, Dana will outline plans to acquire the North Sea assets of Canada's
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) and unveil upbeat production news about some of its
North Sea wells. The company is being targeted by Korea National Oil
Corp. in a GBP1.87 billion hostile bid.
o
Proliferation of old-style coal plants
increases despite public outcry from Wash Post
§ Utilities across the country are building dozens of
old-style coal plants that will cement the industry's standing as the largest
industrial source of climate-changing gases for years to come
o
London-based Vedanta Resources' (VED.L) proposed acquisition
of a majority stake in Cairn India (CAIL.BO) may be
scuppered by India's petroleum ministry, which wants state-owned Oil and
Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.BO) to be
given a chance to buy the holding, the Mint newspaper
o
GDF Suez very interested in German
gas storage sites being offered by Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell
(RDSA.LN) - Le Figaro
o
Dual shareholder says RSA
(RSA.LN) offer for parts of Aviva "needs to be 10% higher" -
Telegraph
o
o
US reviews export rules
for BAE from
Financial Times
§
The US state department will formulate a
company specific “policy” to address export licence approvals for BAE Systems
and its subsidiaries following an analysis of the UK defence group’s guilty
plea to criminal charges in March and discussions with BAE representatives
o
WLK Westlake Chemical raises dividend 10%
o
Acer Inc: Aims to become China's 2nd largest
notebook maker, outpacing Asustek, HP, and Dell - TTN
o
AMZN Kindle Outselling iBooks 60 To One –
Allthingsdigital
§
http://voices.allthingsd.com/20100823/kindle-outselling-ibooks-60-to-one/?mod=ATD_rss
o
Smartphones: The seemingly
recession-proof smart phone is suffering from a side effect of the rough
economy: Manufacturers simply can't build enough of the gadgets because
chip-makers that rolled back production last year are now scrambling to play
catch-up- AP http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TEC_CHIP_SHORTAGES?SITE=OKOKL&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
o
AAPL: Digg founder says Apple iTV launch in
September will 'change everything'- appleInsider
o
AAPL: Apple's iPhone displays 55% of smartphone
ads- AppleInsider
o
MOT, AAPL Motorola most likely
iPad rival- CNET
o
Acer, AAPL: Acer chairman expects iPad
market share to drop to 20%, says paper- digitimes
o
AAPL, facebook:
Facebook for iPhone boasts of over 100 million monthly users- IntoMobile
o
LG To Launch 10 More Smart Phones; To Launch
Android Tablet- barron’s
o
Samsung expands lead in 2Q10
DRAM market,- iSuppli
o
NAND: A stronger price drop took place at the
NAND flash spot market this week (August 16-20) amid inventory clearance among
memory module houses- inSpectrum
o
Smart Grids: Earth2Tech breaks down
the public/private debate
§
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/earth2tech/~3/fXsi-zYFBKQ/
o
Virgin Mobile USA
fortells unlimited prepaid mobile broadband for $40 a month- Engadget
o
BBY: Best Buy 'making tablets a focus' this
holiday season, might stock one from Rocketfish- Engadget
o
Apps: Mobile operators predict app sales boom- FT
o
3DTV: TV Makers Predict a Bright Future for 3-D
Sets- NYT
§
http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=f254e065f28aad2cdc8d47e528be7435
o
TV: Plenty to Watch Online, but Viewers Prefer
to Pay for Cable- NYT
§
http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=22cfbce4b7e84aefd70f9fcf74d0f41f
o
DVDs: Studios Seek DVD Alternatives- WSJ
o Miners leads Monday on
spec mining tax in Australia may be scrapped post election..BBG
o China, the world’s largest maker and user of
aluminum, exported more of the metal than it imported for a
second month in July as a surge in
production added to an oversupply in the country. BBG
o
Tuckey successor says scrap mine tax from Business Spectator
§ MP Tony Crook says prepared to negotiate with both
parties
o
Tokyo Steel plans Sept across-the-board price rise from Business Spectator
§ Japan's biggest construction steelmaker cites rebound in
steel scrap costs
o Rio Tinto Strives to Repair Its China Ties from DealBook
§ Rio
Tinto rebuffed a deal with Chinalco, and China arrested Rio workers on charges
of taking bribes. But both sides are warily making amends.
o
Sinochem, Vale eye Potash: report from Business Spectator
§ BHP may have rivals in takeover bid for fertilizer giant.
o Resource demand spurs M&A deal surge from FT.com
§ The
rise of China and India has sparked a renewed surge in aggressive dealmaking in
the resources sector, with more than $50bn in proposed takeovers this week
alone
o APD, APD Even without Airgas,
shares of Air Products should appreciate nicely, says Barron's
o POT Stories
o POTASHCORP STILL REJECTS BHP OFFER, BEEN APPROACHED
BY OTHERS – press release
§ POTASHCORP
IN TALKS WITH SEVERAL THIRD PARTIES ON ALTERNATIVES
o POT Potash Corp. Said to Get Sinochem, Vale’s
Inquiries- BBG
§ Sinochem and Vale made
initial inquiries with Potash Corp.’s board of directors late last week about
the possibility of holding talks
§ Other companies also
contacted the board of the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, and talks may
not materialize
§ http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a57QuuUdBH.Y
o POT Potash Corp workers ask for hearings on BHP
deal- Reuters
§ BHP Billiton must show
that its planned acquisition of Potash Corp (POT.TO) will have clear benefits
for Canada before the federal government approves any deal
§ The United Steelworkers
are asking the government to hold public hearings before blessing any deal that
would see the world's biggest mining company take over the world's biggest
fertilizer producer
§ http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2015972020100820
o BHP Billiton faces tough sell on POT Potash-
Australian
§ Some of the leading
investors in the Anglo-Australian mining group are worried that it will be
drawn into an expensive bidding war for the company, whose shares have surged
past BHP's rejected $US130-a-share offer.
§ Banking sources close to
Potash said last night that at least two Chinese companies were on a list of
potential white knight bidders that Potash may turn to if BHP's bid gains
momentum
o WSJ discusses BHP’s plans for POT Potash
§ To a large degree, BHP is
buying an option on potash pricing, helped by cheap debt. It has $45 billion of
financing lined up at an average cost of about 2.5%. If you don't believe in
deflation, then selling cheap debt and using the proceeds to buy stocks can
make sense—a leveraged buyout.
§ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703589804575445620646596534.html
o Potash Could ‘Definitely’ Lure China, Neivert Says-
BBG
§ Potash Corp., subject to
a $40 billion takeover bid from BHP Billiton Ltd., could “definitely” be of
interest to Chinese buyers, according to Charles Neivert, managing director of
Dahlman Rose.
§ The bid price for the
Canadian potash producer will have to go higher, and may exceed $150 a share he
said
o Barron’s discusses how much BHP will raise its
offer
§ The Trader believes BHP
Billiton could raise its offer for Potash to $163 thought at this price the
deal wouldn't add to profits until 2014, according to Credit Suisse
§ BHP's $130 a-share cash
bid offers Potash Corp. shareholders a 32% premium to average prices 30 days
before the bid, but is well off the stock's (admittedly unrealistic) 2008 peak
near 242.
§ With merger speculation
rife, and vague hopes that the Chinese will scramble to snag a fertilizer
source, the market quickly came to expect a sweetened offer of at least 150,
and the stock jumped to 149.
§ http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204451004575433560241472100.html
o
Consortium Led By China's Hopu Studying
Potash Bid – DJ
§
A consortium led by Chinese private-equity
fund Hopu Investment Management Co. is studying the feasibility of a bid for
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., a person familiar with the situation
said Monday.
§
The consortium is made up of investors
from Canada, the U.S. and Asia, and includes at least two sovereign wealth
funds, the knowledgeable person said. No decision has been finalized yet on
whether to proceed with a bid for the Canadian fertilizer maker, the person
said.
o BHP in Canadian charm offensive- from
Financial Times
§ BHP
Billiton will launch its charm offensive in Canada this week, as the mining
group seeks to convince Canadian regulators and PotashCorp shareholders of the
value in its $39bn (£25.1bn) bid to take over the fertiliser producer
§ http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/25ea1750-ae2b-11df-bb55-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss
o BHP Billiton urged to pull Potash Corp out of
Western Sahara
§ Activist
group wants BHP to halt the export of phosphates from disputed region if it
takes control of Potash Corp
§ http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/bhp-billiton-potash-corp-western-sahara
o miner
Rio Tinto believes quarterly iron ore pricing is still a "relatively more satisfactory
and well accepted" system, its chief executive Tom Albanese was quoted by
a Chinese paper as saying
§
International
spot prices for the steel-making ingredient have collapsed below quarterly
rates since April, prompting fears among global miners that their Chinese
customers could renege on contracts.
§
In
an interview with 21st Century Business Herald published on Sunday, Mr
Albanese said Rio was happy that so far his firm had not encountered such
breaches of contracts
o
Lihir shareholders back
NCM bid from
Business Spectator
§
Early count shows support for $10bn tie-up.
o
o Regulators Close Troubled Community Lender
ShoreBank
§ The decision to sell to management is a rare
move by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which generally bars investors who
own more than 10% of the failed bank from bidding on its assets. The FDIC also
typically wants to know if bidders have "ever been an officer or director
of a failed institution" and "participated in a material way in one
or more transactions that caused a substantial loss to any such failed
institution," according to an FDIC document
§ The structure of the deal "is
unusual," said Atlanta banking attorney Chip MacDonald. But it "may
have resulted in FDIC getting a better price and lower cost resolution" if
"the management team was not responsible for the failed bank's
problems," he said. WSJ
o Aside from ShoreBank, regulators on Friday
closed four small banks in California, two in Florida and one in Virginia. WSJ
o Threat
of Wall Street Job Cuts Looms – WSJ link
§ The weak economy, volatile markets, regulatory upheaval
and changes in how traders are paid are starting to trigger job cuts on Wall
Street that could reverse a recent rebound in employment levels
o Derivatives
fight:
Fighting Flares on New Rules For Street – WSJ
§ Banks, companies and trade associations challenged
federal regulators Friday over the controversial question of how to regulate
derivatives under the new Dodd-Frank financial revamp, the first big day of
posturing since the law was enacted last month.
§ The meetings, particularly a three-hour roundtable hosted
jointly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and
Exchange Commission, illustrate how Wall Street's attention has shifted from
Congress
§ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703579804575441750105850046.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fxml%2Frss%2F3_7011+%28WSJ.com%3A+What%27s+News+US%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
o
Credit-Card Rates Climb – WSJ link
§ Borrowing rates for a large portion of U.S. credit-card
accounts have been rising and are likely to climb further in the near future.
o
BAC: Ex-BofA CEO Lewis Calls Merrill Lawsuit
'Implausible' – CNBC
§ Lawyers for former Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis said in
a court filing that a lawsuit accusing him of misleading investors during the
company's 2009 merger with Merrill Lynch was "implausible" and
"inconsistent," and should be tossed out.
§ The filing was a response to a civil lawsuit
submitted by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in February which accused Lewis and Bank of America of failing to
properly disclose losses and bonuses at Merrill before the deal closed.
§ http://www.cnbc.com/id/38801150
o
AIG: Reuters) - American International Group's
aircraft leasing unit ILFC repaid nearly $4 billion of U.S. loans after raising
new debt from investors
o
GS: Goldman Hurt
by SEC Suit? Not Based on This Week’s Work- WSJ
§ This week was the busiest of year for M&A, according
to Dealogic. Goldman was listed as an adviser on five deals valued at $60.1 billion. The bank scored a role advising Potash Corp.
of Saskatchewan as it fends of a hostile offer from BHP Billiton. Goldman was
the sole adviser to Intel on its announced purchase of McAfee for $7.7 billion.
It also advised Indian miner Vedanta on its $9.5 billion bid for a 40% stake in
oil explorer Cairn’s Indian business.
§ So not only did Goldman rank No.1 in this week’s league
tables, but it remained in its usual position in the global and U.S. rankings:
No. 1.
o Bonuses
furore hits banking chiefs’ pay from FT.com
§ The average pay of top bankers in the US and Europe fell
by nearly 60 per cent in 2009 amid a furore over bonuses, according to data
compiled for the Financial Times
o
UBS embarks on rebranding drive from FT.com
§
UBS, one of the banks hardest hit by the credit
crisis, on Sunday sought to put the past behind it with the start of a
worldwide advertising campaign
o MF Global to enter money management from Financial Times
§
MF Global Holdings is to make a push into
money management and investment banking, in an effort to capitalise on the
derivatives brokerage’s strength in commodities markets
o
Investment Bank Shares Jump from TheStreet.com
§
The wave of deals is driving up shares of
small advisory firms
o
Barclays Customers Unable To Access Cash After Computer
Glitch
§
dow Jones)--U.K. bank Barclays PLC
(BARC.LN)--which earlier this
month outsourced its ATM, or automated teller machine, services to NCR Corp
(NCR)--confirmed Sunday that customers were unable to access their bank
accounts and withdraw money on Saturday after cash machines went down.
o
china Construction Bank Corp. (0939.HK), the
nation's second-largest lender by assets, Sunday reported a 27% increase in
first half net profit, helped by a surge in fee-based businesses and lower
impairment charges due to slower credit growth and improved global financial
markets
o State-run CCB, in which Bank of America Corp. (BAC) owns
a stake of around 10%, said its net profit for the six months ended June 30 was
70.74 billion yuan ($10.41 billion), up from CNY55.81 billion a year earlier.
The result, which met analysts forecast, was buoyed by higher rev
o
Morgan Stanley's Direct Private-Equity Arm Stays Put - WSJ
§
Morgan Stanley Private Equity will stay
within its Wall Street parent for
now
§
Morgan Stanley (MS) will continue to honor
its capital commitment to the arm's most recent fund, Morgan Stanley Capital
Partners V LP, which had a final closing late last year on a little more than
$1 billion
§
Nearly
one-third of the commitment to the fund came from the parent and its
employees, with the remainder from outside investors.
o
HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC,
HSBA.LN) has emerged as the frontrunner to buy a controlling stake in Nedbank
Group Ltd. (NED.JO), South Africa's fourth-largest bank, in a deal that
could be announced as early as Monday, the Financial Times
o
BEN,
BK, DPS Profile: Robert Levy, a sub advisor for the MassMutual
Select Focused Value Fund likes shares of Franklin Resources as well as Bank of
New York Mellon while selling shares of Dr. Pepper Snapple in July. – Barron’s
o
Barron's feature examines the executive
compensation aspect of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act
o
PACW
Pacific Western Bank purchases Los Padres Bank in FDIC-assisted transaction
o
WABC
Westamerica Bank acquires Sonoma Valley Bank assets, liabilities from FDIC
o
OCN Ocwen
Financial CFO David Gunter to retire, effective 27-Aug
o
AMPL
Gadot Chemical Tankers and Terminals completes purchase of ADPO Ghent for €30M
o
Second tranche of Anglo Irish Bank loans
transfers to NAMA for 61% discount - Irish Independent
o
o
Coffee hits new 12 yr highs Monday
o SAFM Sanderson
Farms reports a miss…
o
LOW Lowe's upgraded to buy from neutral
at Goldman Sachs
o
back-to-school
: Schooling shoppers – link from NY Post
§
This back-to-school
season may teach consumers and retailers a cruel lesson. Wallet-conscious
parents are holding out for the steep Labor Day weekend markdowns on everything
from three-ring binders to ring-spun denim. Meanwhile, retailers have kept
inventories so lean that experts say eye-popping deals and consumer choices
will be in shorter...
o
Hedge Fund Corners the Cocoa Market from zero hedge
§
London based Anthony Ward’s Amajaro hedge
fund built up a billion dollar long position in the cocoa futures market which
traders expected him to unwind going into expiration
§
The move triggered some extreme volatility in
the markets. The difficulties of transporting and storing this quantity of a
perishable commodity boggle the mind. Ward, a long time successful cocoa
trader, is clearly taking advantage of a poor crop this year in the Ivory
Coast, a major producer, betting on a price rise. The move was so unexpected
that traders and big consumers, like Cadbury and Nestle, have been caught short.
Although these giants hedge their requirements years in advance in the futures
markets, no one expected this amount of product to be taken off the market so
quickly
o
BKS (Reuters) - The war that has erupted between
Barnes & Noble (BKS) two largest shareholders over control of the
bookseller is putting a wrench in its plans to sell itself and could make the
retailer less appealing.
§ The company is expected to report a quarterly loss on
Tuesday, and the extent of the damage is likely to affect who shareholders vote
for at next month's annual meeting.
o
U.S. restaurants starved for business from L.A. Times
§ The number of restaurants operating nationwide dropped
this year for the first time in more than a decade, a survey shows, with
California accounting for almost a third of the losses
§ With consumers and businesses keeping a lid on expenses,
more and more small and mid-size restaurants are throwing in their dish towels
and closing up shop.
o SABMiller,
Asahi Eye Foster's Beer; No Formal Bid Yet from CNBC
§ Foster’s (FGL.AU) jumped 8% on reports that
SABMiller (SAB.LN) may offer £7B for the group’s beer arm.
o
CPB Campbell Soup thought to be planning
£1.5B bid for United Biscuits's biscuit-making arm - Guardian
o
Swatch Reuters) - Swatch Group, the world's largest
watchmaker, is aiming for another record year in 2011 as new products come on
to the market in the coming months, the group's new chairwoman was quoted as
saying on Sunday.
o
Death
reports of the for-profit education group may be early,
says the WSJ
o
KO,
MCD, SJM Streetwise comments about recent takeover speculation
and says while it is not a key reason to buy the market, the M&A theme is a
net positive until it gets more out of hand. Traditional growth stocks with
multi-generational brands such as Coca-Cola, McDonald's , and JM Smucker are noted to have performed
well in sideways markets. – Barron’s
o
UTI
Universal Technical holder Pivot Point reduces stake to 4.0% from 6.2% in
amended 13D
o
MKC
McCormick adopts 10b5-1 stock repurchase plan
o
JMBA
Jamba has refranchised 102 stores to date, for which it incurred aggregate
impairment charges of $5.5M
o
DIRECTV (DTV), McDonald's (MCD) mentioned as
new buys in Louis Navellier's Blue Chip Growth September newsletter
o Retail for Sale: Time for Private Equity to Shop –
CNBC
§ Three
names to watch are: American
Eagle Outfitters, BJ's
Wholesale and La-Z-Boy,
§ http://www.cnbc.com/id/38787249
o Cocoa
prices likely to rise - WSJ
§ Problems
in Ivory Coast's Cocoa Industry Likely to Drive Up Prices
§ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704504204575445262030750490.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_4
o
JAZZ
dn 40% after hrs… Jazz Pharmaceuticals will hold conference
call regarding the FDA panel vote on JZP-6 (rekinla) for fibromyalgia; the call
will take place at 0830ET on Monday, 23-Aug. dial in 866.713.8566 in the U.S.
or 617.597.5325 outside the U.S. and entering 35059911
o
AMRI
Albany Molecular received a FDA warning letter regarding Burlington, MA
manufacturing facility
o
GPRO Gen Probe announces that Prodesse's ProFAST+
assay receives its CE (Conformité Européenne) Mark
o
DEPO
Depomed provides update on Glumzeta 500mg supply disruption -- 8K
o
OSUR
OraSure Technologies files $150M mixed shelf
o
EPCT EpiCept receives refusal to file letter from
FDA on NDA for Ceplene (histamine dihydrochloride)
o
WCRX
up 2% , Warner Chilcott said it reached an agreement
to amend its credit facilities in order to add another $1.5 billion in new term
loans, which will help pay for a previously announced special dividend. But the
maker of branded prescription women's health-care and dermatology products also
reduced its full-year earnings outlook as a result. Shares rose 2.2% to $28.75
after hours.
o
CPIX dn
9%...Cumberland Pharmaceuticals said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has
extended its review of its drug Acetadote in patients with non-acetaminophen
acute liver failure. Shares sank 8.6% to $5.50 in after-hours trading.
o
AstraZeneca had internal debate on drug data from FT.com
o
Documents made public during litigation on
the pharmaceutical group’s antipsychotic drug Seroquel highlight apparent
efforts by the group to communicate favourable data selectively to boost
prescriptions
o
ENCO Encorium Group files
amended S-1; to distributed up to 3.4M rights at $1.75/share
o
The subscription rights will expire if not
exercised by 17:00 ET on 30-Sep, though may be extended for additional periods
ending no later than 15-Oct.
UTILITIES
o
Commodities Corner discusses the lack of
impact the high demand for electricity and the low growth in stockpiles has had
on natural gas prices. – Barron’s
o
Expeditors Reuters) - Expeditors International of
Washington Inc said it, along with its Brazilian unit, received an
administrative proceeding from the Brazilian Ministry of Justice, alleging the
logistics firm infringed anti-competition laws.
o
Virgin Atlantic Fight Looms from WSJ.com
o
Virgin Atlantic's pilots union urged the
airline to avoid a confrontation amid what the union described as
"last-ditch" talks to settle a dispute over time off
o
Mexicana
de Aviacion airline
consortium of Mexican investors have acquired 95% of Mexicana de
Aviacion airline, which earlier this month filed for bankruptcy protection, the
investors group said Saturday. The Tenedora K group was formed "to
capitalize" and "save" Nuevo Grupo Aeronautico, the holding
company that controls Mexicana de Aviacion and two domestic airlines, Mexicana
Click and Mexicana Link, it said in a statement. AFP
o
WYNN Wynn
Resorts' Macau subsidiary reports 2H results--8K
o
Cult carmaker Morgan defies the gloom from FT.com
o
Morgan Motor Company, the centenarian British
car manufacturer, has defied the difficulties of the global automobile industry
with record sales of its cult sporty convertibles
o
General
Motors Barron's cover
story says the General Motors IPO
could value the car maker at $60B
o
General
Motors …Bond Prices
Suggest GM Stock May Be Overvalued (Dow Jones)
o
Investors thinking about getting in on
General Motors' initial public offering may want to check the bond market
before buying. Although the company hasn't specified the price or size
of the offering, GM's (GM) IPO is expected to raise about $16 billion, making
it the second-largest in U.S. history. It's not clear how the offering will
value the auto giant, but there are already clues in the bond market.
There are billions of dollars of bonds left over from GM's previous
incarnation. Motors Liquidation Co., the surviving entity, listed $32.2 billion
of liabilities at the end of June, including more than $28 billion of unsecured
bond debt.
o
This debt still trades a lot. The
bellwether issue is a bond that GM sold in 2003. It matures in 2033 and
initially yielded 8.375%. This bond is currently trading at about 34 cents on
the dollar. Owners of GM's old bonds will get 10% of the new equity,
plus warrants to buy another 15%. Factoring in things like dilution, bond
holders will probably end up with about 20% of the new equity in GM after the
IPO, according to Shelly Lombard, an analyst at independent fixed-income
research firm Gimme Credit
o
The
price of GM's 2033 8.375% bonds suggests investors are willing to pay 34 cents
on the dollar, or about $10 billion, for taking on liabilities of more than $32
billion--knowing that they could end up owning about 20% of the new company.
o
GM considered, rejected HK listing: sources from Business Spectator
o
Hong Kong ruled out as it would have delayed
listing. 21 Aug 2010 11:26 AM
o
Ford may lose some investors to GM IPO, Bill Ford says from Automotive News
o
Ford Motor Co. Executive Chairman Bill Ford
said some investors may reduce their holdings in his company to buy shares in
General Motors Co.'s initial public offering and spread their risk across the
automobile industry.
o
Dealers: We want more cars! from Automotive News
o
Dealer H. Carter Myers III lost a motivated
buyer of a GMC Terrain crossover last week because there were no Terrains on
his lot.
o
Hyundai, Kia go upscale, add segments and
pizazz from Automotive News
o Hyundai
and Kia are trying to hold on to their U.S. sales momentum by entering new
segments, moving the brands upscale and bringing out vehicles with more
eye-catching design.
o Indian
utility vehicles maker Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHM.BO)
said it had signed a memorandum of understanding to buy a majority stake in
troubled South Korean automaker Ssangyong
o Ssangyong
Motor (003620.KS) jumped 7% when Mahindra & Mahindra (MM.IN)
signed a memorandum of understanding to buy a majority of the company
o
BWA: BorgWarner May Make
Acquisitions, Resume Dividends (Bloomberg) -- BorgWarner Inc., the maker of
automatic-transmission parts, would consider acquisitions in Asia and may
resume dividend payments in November.
o
The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage
dropped to 4.42% the week ended Aug. 19, Freddie Mac said -- a fifth
consecutive new record low. Ultracheap loans caused the Mortgage Bankers
Association Refinancing Index to jump 17% to its highest level in 15 months as
homeowners sprang into action.
o
BXP
Boston Properties signs agreement with Harry Macklowe affiliate to acquire 510
Madison Avenue in NYC
o
WSJ: Price For 510 Madison Ave Among Highest
Since Downturn Began
o
Auction of HSBC Unit Will Serve as Barometer
of Mortgage Market from American Banker
o As
part of its disposal of U.S. consumer banking businesses, HSBC Holdings is
shopping HSBC Mortgage around. As with many yard sale offerings, the property's
attractiveness is ...
o
Stripped of Preemption, Banks Expected to
Roll Up Mortgage Units from American Banker
o
It took just one sentence in the 2,300-page
financial reform law to end federal preemption for mortgage lenders that
operate as subsidiaries of national banks.
o
Hedge
Fund Heavyweight Paulson Makes New Housing Bet - cnbc
§
will be throwing his hat into the race to
acquire residential land—and dirt cheap.
§
Paulson, who manages the $31 billion Paulson
& Co. fund, has made a "stalking horse" bid of $42.4 million to
acquire the assets of Engle Homes, which includes land and lots in Arizona
targeted for more than 8,000 homes, and nine completed residences.
§
http://www.cnbc.com//id/38789781
o
Blackstone invests in Chinese housing market from FT.com
o
Blackstone, the US private equity group, has
agreed a deal with one of Hong Kong’s largest property developers to build
luxury apartments in the country
o
Does Feddie Have a Future? from Barron's
o
Federal meddling in the home-mortgage market
never ends.
o
The Fannie and Freddie effect is here long term from Financial Times
o
Nobody in Washington seems to know what to do
with Fannie and Freddie. But act they must.
o
Nearly 50% leave Obama mortgage relief program from Wash Post
o
Nearly half of the homeowners who enrolled in
the Obama administration's flagship mortgage-relief program have fallen out
o
Lloyd Blankfein, chairman and chief executive
of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
(GS), has sold his co-op apartment on Manhattan's Park Avenue for about $12
million, the New York Times reports Friday.
o
Full story at
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/realestate/22deal1.html?_r=3&partner=rss&emc=rss
o
commercial
property sector: The yoke of the credit choke from Business Spectator
o
Businesses' lack of access to credit was
ignored as an issue during the election, but it could have dire consequences
for the commercial property sector
o
Mortgage Fraud Is on the Rise Again from WSJ.com
o
Mortgage fraud, which helped inflate the
housing bubble and left banks and government housing agencies with an avalanche
of bad debt, is up again. The crime rose last year after declining for two
years from its 2006 peak.
o
Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth from DealBook
o
Many economists now believe that the days of
banking on an asset that could only rise in value are gone for good.
o
Good-Bye
McMansion, Hello Tiny House? WSJ
link
o
How big is your ideal home? Somewhere between
1,400 and 2,600 square feet was the answer given by more than half of those who
responded to a recent survey.
o
Mortgage
Delinquency Runs Slightly Higher in Dems' Districts WSJ link
o
FNM, FRE….In Praise
(!) of Barney Frank –
o
By: Larry Kudlow, CNBC Anchor
o
For years, Frank was a staunch supporter of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant government housing agencies that played
such an enormous role in the financial meltdown that thrust the economy into
the Great Recession.
o
But
in a recent CNBC interview, Frank told me that he was ready to say goodbye to
Fannie and Freddie.
o
“I hope by next year we’ll have abolished
Fannie and Freddie,” he said
o
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38791383
o
Bovis shares dip after its caution on the
housing market guardian.co.
o
Bovis Homes Group posts H1 EPS £0.02 vs
Reuters £0.02
o
Intends to resume declaring dividends at end
of current financial year.
o In last few weeks of the half year, after UK
General Election and the Budget, the market became more fragile.
o
o
Energy
o
Petrofac +1.8%. 1H profit numbers better please.
o
Dana Pete +0.2%. Looking for increased bid from KNOC (FT)
o
Mining
o
Australian election
hung parliament raises hopes of scrapping of Resource Tax.
o
UK miners + 1 ½--2%.
o
BHP + 1.9%. SinoChem watching Potash bid.. Bernstein says
sees no counter.
o
o
AIR FRANCE-KLM to decide on future of
Martinair – S&P
o
CASINO signs EUR 1.2bn revolving credit line
– S&P
o
GDF SUEZ interest in Exxon, SHELL's German
gas assets – S&P
o
GDF SUEZ: Offer for Energa rejected – S&P
o
MEDIASET: Endemol expects to comply with debt
covenants – S&P
o
HEIJMANS 1H op profit ahead of forecasts – S&P
o
GETINGE: Warning letter from FDA over Wayne
plant – S&P
o
HSBC in talks to acquire Nedbank from OLD
MUTUAL – S&P
o
Oridion posts interim net income of
US$3.15m – S&P
o
SCHAFFNER ups guidance
o
SWATCH GROUP aims for another record year –
Reuters
o
AMLIN: 1H PTP falls 39.3%
o
BAE SYSTEMS: US reviews rules on export
licences – S&P
o
BOVIS HOMES: 1H numbers miss estimates
o
DANA looks to persuade KNOC to raise offer -
FT
o
HISCOX: Disaster losses hit 1H profits – S&P
o
PETROFAC sees FY LFL profit growth at around
20% – S&P
o
SABMILLER mulls bid for Foster's beer
operations – S&P
o Japan
•
NKY-0.68%, TPX -0.58%
•
NKY fell as worry lingered about the pace of
economic recovery and the impact of the strong yen. Report that PM Kan and BoJ
government Shirakawa talked on the phone instead of meeting in person also led
the market to think Japan may not take action against a strong yen. Turnover on
the TPX fell to 1.04 trillion yen from 1.12 trillion yen last Friday
•
Stocks fell across most sectors led by tech,
materials, industrials, telecom and consumer. Oil & gas and utilities rose
•
Exporters fell on a strong yen: autos -0.77%,
CE -1.24%, precision -1.60%.
•
Traders -0.66% after metal prices fell
•
Best performing sectors on the TPX: oil &
coal +0.80%, fishery, agriculture & forestry +0.54%, electric power &
gas +0.42%; worst performing sectors: textiles & apparels -1.67%, precision
-1.60%, pulp & paper -1.42%
•
Flow: buying brokers, selling telco, autos
and banks
o Hong
Kong
•
HSI -0.44%; HSCEI -0.93%
•
Stocks fell, tracking the regional market as
concerns on the strength of global economic recovery weighed on stocks.
Turnover on the HSI fell to HK $18.64B from HK$20.96B last Friday
o China
•
SHCOMP -0.11%; SZCOMP +0.39%
•
Stocks close down after fluctuating in a
narrow range as investors took profits. Turnover on the SHCOMP fell to 116.03B
yuan from 118.67B yuan last Friday
•
Stocks were mixed. Consumer, industrials,
health care and tech rose while telecom, oil & gas, materials, financials
and utilities fell
•
Real estate -0.72%. Vanke’s chairman Wang Shi
said home prices in China’s largest cities may fall 10% - 15%
Other
stories:
o
Changes
in the latest Investor's Business Daily 100 List:
Added: ARMH, CISG, PNRA, NNI, LXK, INTU,
ANV, LVS. Deleted: ALK, KRA, ASPS,
DGIT, BCPC, ALGN, SINA, CRM.
o
Barron's
summary
§
BEN,
BK, DPS Profile: Robert Levy, a sub advisor for the MassMutual
Select Focused Value Fund likes shares of Franklin Resources as well as Bank of
New York Mellon while selling shares of
Dr. Pepper Snapple in July.
§
DCS Up
and Down Wall Street: Randall Forsyth believes the talk of a bubble in
Treasuries is all hype and says the Claymore Dividend & Income Fund (DCS)
could be worth a look by investors.
§
KO,
MCD, SJM Streetwise comments about recent takeover speculation
and says while it is not a key reason to buy the market, the M&A theme is a
net positive until it gets more out of hand. Traditional growth stocks with
multi-generational brands such as Coca-Cola, McDonald's , and JM Smucker are
noted to have performed well in sideways markets.
§
MFE,
INTC Technology Trader though not a 100% believer in the
McAfee deal, is still a believer in Intel. Moving anti-virus from software into
the processor could take a year or two. Shorter term concerns about the Sept.
quarter for Intelare also noted.
§
AAPL,
GOOG, NOK, MOT, RIMM Plugged In says the smartphone segment shows
no signs of getting caught in a dip in the economic recovery. Bill Whyman of
ISI Group is noted to have recently raised his 2010 projection of unit growth
sales by 3% with foreign exchange playing a large part in the price of devices.
Apple, Google, Nokia, Motorola and Research In Motion are all mentioned.
§
Economic Beat believes spending by consumers
and businesses isn't falling.
§
BHP,
POT The Trader believes BHP Billiton could raise its offer
for Potash to $163 thought at this price the deal wouldn't add to profits until
2014, according to Credit Suisse. Taking profit the closer Potash (POT) shares
trade to $160 is recommended. Retail stocks are still not seen as a bargain
even with the group trading lower since April. Margin pressure in the 2H from
competition and the increased cost of goods from China is noted.
§
Asia Trader suggests looking at Taiwan's
financial sector and First Financial Holding Company.
§
European Trader says even without a strong
rebound in the US and Europe, Akzo Nobel has a bright outlook.
§
The Striking Price notes risk in emerging
markets is being priced like that in the US.
§
Current Yield sees safety with higher yields
than Treasuries in emerging markets.
§
Commodities Corner discusses the lack of
impact the high demand for electricity and the low growth in stockpiles has had
on natural gas prices.
§
Barron's feature examines the executive
compensation aspect of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act
§
APD,
APD Even without Airgas, shares of Air Products should
appreciate nicely, says Barron's
§
HP Barron's feature says Helmerich &
Payne will continue to benefit from a move to new high performance drilling
rigs
§
Barron's portfolio manager interview: Putnam
Investment's Jeff Knight
§
Barron's cover story says the General Motors
IPO could value the car maker at $60B
INVESTMENT
BANKING
INVESTMENT
BANKING WRAP
o POT Stories
o POTASHCORP STILL REJECTS BHP OFFER, BEEN APPROACHED
BY OTHERS – press release
§ POTASHCORP
IN TALKS WITH SEVERAL THIRD PARTIES ON ALTERNATIVES
o POT Potash Corp. Said to Get Sinochem, Vale’s
Inquiries- BBG
§ Sinochem and Vale made
initial inquiries with Potash Corp.’s board of directors late last week about
the possibility of holding talks
§ Other companies also
contacted the board of the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, and talks may
not materialize
§ http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a57QuuUdBH.Y
o POT Potash Corp workers ask for hearings on BHP
deal- Reuters
§ BHP Billiton must show
that its planned acquisition of Potash Corp (POT.TO) will have clear benefits
for Canada before the federal government approves any deal
§ The United Steelworkers
are asking the government to hold public hearings before blessing any deal that
would see the world's biggest mining company take over the world's biggest
fertilizer producer
§ http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2015972020100820
o BHP Billiton faces tough sell on POT Potash-
Australian
§ Some of the leading
investors in the Anglo-Australian mining group are worried that it will be
drawn into an expensive bidding war for the company, whose shares have surged
past BHP's rejected $US130-a-share offer.
§ Banking sources close to
Potash said last night that at least two Chinese companies were on a list of
potential white knight bidders that Potash may turn to if BHP's bid gains
momentum
o WSJ discusses BHP’s plans for POT Potash
§ To a large degree, BHP is
buying an option on potash pricing, helped by cheap debt. It has $45 billion of
financing lined up at an average cost of about 2.5%. If you don't believe in
deflation, then selling cheap debt and using the proceeds to buy stocks can
make sense—a leveraged buyout.
§ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703589804575445620646596534.html
o Potash Could ‘Definitely’ Lure China, Neivert Says-
BBG
§ Potash Corp., subject to
a $40 billion takeover bid from BHP Billiton Ltd., could “definitely” be of
interest to Chinese buyers, according to Charles Neivert, managing director of
Dahlman Rose.
§ The bid price for the
Canadian potash producer will have to go higher, and may exceed $150 a share he
said
o Barron’s discusses how much BHP will raise its
offer
§ The Trader believes BHP
Billiton could raise its offer for Potash to $163 thought at this price the
deal wouldn't add to profits until 2014, according to Credit Suisse
§ BHP's $130 a-share cash
bid offers Potash Corp. shareholders a 32% premium to average prices 30 days
before the bid, but is well off the stock's (admittedly unrealistic) 2008 peak
near 242.
§ With merger speculation
rife, and vague hopes that the Chinese will scramble to snag a fertilizer
source, the market quickly came to expect a sweetened offer of at least 150,
and the stock jumped to 149.
§ http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204451004575433560241472100.html
o
Consortium Led By China's Hopu Studying
Potash Bid – DJ
§
A consortium led by Chinese private-equity
fund Hopu Investment Management Co. is studying the feasibility of a bid for
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., a person familiar with the situation
said Monday.
§
The consortium is made up of investors
from Canada, the U.S. and Asia, and includes at least two sovereign wealth
funds, the knowledgeable person said. No decision has been finalized yet on
whether to proceed with a bid for the Canadian fertilizer maker, the person
said.
o Nearly $85 billion of transactions have been
announced since last Monday, the highest weekly sum since the week of Dec. 13, 2009, when Exxon
Mobil Corp. announced its $40 billion acquisition of XTO Energy Inc., according
to Dealogic
o One factor may be the
cash burning in their pockets. U.S. public companies carried $2.03 trillion in
cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter, according to
data from FactSet Research. That's about 57% above the level at the same tome
in 2006.
o Dealmakers seize the moment on mergers and
acquisitions from Financial Times
o Dealmakers are rushing to
capitalise on a window of opportunity to launch transactions, after volatile
financing markets for much of this year kept a lid on a sustainable recovery in
mergers and acquisitions
o Deal volumes, which
looked sluggish at best at the half-year stage, are running almost 20 per cent
ahead of 2009, after a strong showing in July and August
o
Merger mania predicted as cash-rich firms
stalk takeover targets- guardian
o
ITV, Prudential, Sainsbury and AstraZeneca
thought to be among many targets
o
Takeover fever is gripping global markets
amid speculation that a mergers and acquisitions (M&A) boom is on the cards
as cash-rich companies splash out on expansion.
o
Anglo-Australian mining group BHP Billiton led the charge last week with a £35bn bid
for Potash Corp of Canada.
o
Analysts say British companies in the
takeover frame include ITV, targeted by NBC; BG, the
gas and exploration group, which is being stalked by oil majors such as Shell;
insurance company Prudential, a possible target for
a break-up bid by Aviva and Resolution; miner Xstrata, which is being eyed by Swiss commodities
group Glencore; AstraZeneca, the drugs company,
which could attract interest from GlaxoSmithKline or European rivals; and Sainsbury, where the Qataris have built up a minority
stake.
o http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/merger-mania-predicted
o CNBC discusses possible retail names for sale
o Wall Street Securities
retail analyst Brian Sozzi thinks so. Three names to watch are: AEO American
Eagle Outfitters, BJ BJ's Wholesale and
LZB La-Z-Boy, he says
o "They have been
beaten down a fair amount," Sozzi says, in an interview on CNBC.
"These companies generate a significant amount of cash so it makes sense
for private equity to at least take a look at this point in time."
o http://www.cnbc.com/id/38787249
o Suez eyes XOM Exxon/RDS Shell German gas assets-
reuters
o French energy group GDF
Suez is interested in acquiring gas storage assets in Germany worth around 1
billion euros ($1.3 billion) put up for sale by Exxon Mobil and Shell
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67K06X20100821
o CPB Campbell Soup Company plans £1.5bn break-up of
United Biscuits- guardian
o Campbell has reportedly
engaged Centerview Partners, a US boutique investment bank, to advise it on
launching a break-up bid for United Biscuits
o with analysts predicting
a sale price of about £2bn. A stock market flotation has also been considered,
but this appears unlikely following recent stock market volatility
o http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/campbell-soup-united-biscuits-buyout
o Barron’s discusses whether APD should raise ARG
offer
o if the bid –currently for
$63.50 a share in cash -- fails, or if it goes through at a price below $70,
the stock could climb by as much as 20% over the next year
o anything over $70 would
reduce earnings per share in 2011, putting pressure on Air Products stock.
o http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203651904575437501490880646.html
o BWA BorgWarner May Make Acquisitions, Resume
Dividends- BBG
o BorgWarner Inc., the
maker of automatic-transmission parts, would consider acquisitions in Asia and
may resume dividend payments in November
o An acquisition, which
could cost as much as $600 million, isn’t likely to happen this year and has a
less than 50 percent chance of occurring in 2011
o SABMiller, Asahi eye Foster's beer unit; no bids
yet- Reuters
o Beverage giants SABMiller
and Asahi Breweries (2502.T) are looking at Foster's Group's beer operations,
valued at more than $10 billion, but have not yet made any formal offers
o Fund managers are divided
over whether a suitor would emerge before Australia's largest brewer formally
splits off the wine division in 2011 or wait, with complex debt and structural
issues to be resolved
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE67M03020100823
o Dana aims to convince KNOC to raise offer- FT
o Dana Petroleum will this
week make a final attempt to convince South Korea’s national oil group to raise
its £1.87b takeover offer in return for the blessing of the board.
o The North Sea and
Egypt-focused oil explorer will use its interim results on Friday as a platform
to stress its value
o http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf70fac2-ae13-11df-bb55-00144feabdc0.html\
o Fujitsu ‘Very Actively’ Seeking Acquisitions,
President Says- BBG
o “Targets will be companies that have
technologies that Fujitsu doesn’t have or that have customers that Fujitsu has
never been able to reach so far,”
o “We would like to get
engaged very actively in M&A activities.”
o Cairn deal may not get ministry nod- LiveMint
o The deal has already been
clouded by regulatory concerns raised by the petroleum ministry, tax
implications and reservations expressed by Life Insurance Corp of India, which
owns a 2.57% stake in Cairn, and analysts that the offer was unfair to
shareholders.
o http://www.livemint.com/2010/08/23002000/Cairn-deal-may-not-get-ministr.html?h=A1
o Bank Failures from fri: 8 total
o PACW Pacific Western Bank
purchases Los Padres Bank in FDIC-assisted transaction
§ Los Padres Bank had $870M
in assets, $534M in loans, and $771M in deposits
o WABC Westamerica Bank
acquires Sonoma Valley Bank assets, liabilities from FDIC
§ As of 30-Jun, Sonoma
Valley Bank reported deposits totaling $256M and loans totaling $241M.
Westamerica Bank assumed only the assets and liabilities of Sonoma Valley Bank
o Butte Community Bank, Chico,
CA, Pacific State Bank, Stockton, CA, ShoreBank, Chicago, IL, Imperial Savings
and Loan Association, Martinsville, VA, Independent National Bank, Ocala, FL,
Community National Bank at Bartow, Bartow, FL
o http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/index.html
o SJR
Shaw family buys 1 mln shares of Shaw Communications- Reuters
o Canadian cable and telecom company Shaw
Communications Inc (SJRb.TO) (SJR.N) said the Shaw family and entities owned or
controlled by them bought an additional 1 million class B non-voting shares of
the company
o DRBN
Dress Barn plans to reorganize into holding company- Reuters
o Once this is done, each of its Dress Barn, Maurices
and Tween Brands (which operates under the Justice brand), would become units
of Ascena Retail Group, which would replace the present company as the publicly
held corporation, Dress Barn said
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE67J0IW20100820
o Insurer RSA's offer for parts of Aviva 'needs to be
10pc higher'- Telegraph
o Martin Brown, investment
manager at Ignis Asset Management, said RSA's initial £5bn approach undervalued
the Aviva business
o "There's no reason
for the deal to be dead other than for RSA to be unwilling to pay more, but RSA
would not have to raise its offer by much for Aviva to be obliged to consider
it.
o VIP VimpelCom Yields Surging on Sawiris
Speculation- BBG
o OAO VimpelCom bond yields
hit a one- month high and may rise more should the Russian mobile-phone
operator’s parent follow through on merger plans in Italy and Egypt
o http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaI.8BRXCY4U
o WSJ: Price For 510 Madison Ave Among Highest Since
Downturn Began
o Boston Properties said
today that it has agreed to buy Harry Macklowe's embattled office tower at 510
Madison Avenue for about $280.5 million. The 350,000-square-foot property had
been the subject of a bitter legal fight between Macklowe, SL Green and junior
mezzanine lender O'Connor Capital Partners for several months
o HSBC to buy up to 70% of Nedbank- Mail &
Guardian
o HSBC will buy up to 70%
of South Africa's Nedbank, in a potential $6,8-billion deal that would give
Europe's largest lender a bigger presence in Africa's top economy and a gateway
to the fast-growing continent.
o HSBC is poised to win the
auction for a controlling stake in Nedbank after fending off fierce competition
from its UK-based rival Standard Chartered
o http://www.mg.co.za/article/2010-08-23-hsbc-to-buy-up-70-of-nedbank
o GDF Suez very interested in German gas storage
sites being offered by Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA.LN) - Le
Figaro
o Cinda in talks to buy strategic stake in AIA- SCMP
o China Cinda Asset
Management Corp is leading a mainland consortium to buy into AIA, as the state
asset manager aims to build itself into a financial services conglomerate
o http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2c913216495213d5df646910cba0a0a0/
o Germany to sell Commerzbank stake as soon as
possible- reuters
o "The faster we are
out, the better," Schaeuble told the weekend edition of German newspaper
Rheinische Post, adding the bank recently showed "a pleasing development
o “We do not have the
intention to stay Commerzbank owner for a long time", he said.
o http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-50996120100822
o GOOG Google officially Acquires Like.com-
TechCrunch
o It’s official. Google has
acquired Like.com. In a post on Like.com’s homepage, the company’s CEO writes
that the visual search engine has been bought by Google
o http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/20/its-official-google-acquires-like-com/
o Roche buys BioImagene for $100 mln, boosts
diagnostics- Reuters
o Swiss drugmaker Roche
Holding AG is buying U.S-based BioImagene for some $100 million, making another
bolt-on acquisition to cement its dominant position in tissue-based cancer
diagnostics.
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67M0MG20100823
o Takeover Bets Play Out in Terex, Akamai
Technologies- WSJ
o Traders picked up notable
batches of bullish options on shares in heavy-machinery company Terex. The
Connecticut-based company has been the subject of takeover rumors for months.
It sold its mining business to Bucyrus International for $1.3 billion in
December
o Santander sets sights on Zachodni stake- FT
o Santander is planning to
step up its pursuit of a controlling stake in Poland’s fifth-largest bank. The
Spanish group hopes to edge closer to a package deal that could see it acquire
three overseas businesses from Allied Irish Banks
o http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50e5b868-ae0f-11df-bb55-00144feabdc0.html
o Portuguese bank’s Execution deal stagnates- FT
o Banco Espírito Santo has
yet to follow through on its agreement to acquire a 50.1% stake in Execution
Noble, raising questions over why the deal has taken more than six months to
complete
o http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2c97f48a-ae05-11df-bb55-00144feabdc0.html
o Arques says is in talks with various prospective
buyers of gigaset- CNBC
o Says negotiations with
one prospective buyer are already in a very advanced stage
o Says Siemens is prepared
to constructively go along with this process, says Arques is having
constructive talks to settle disputes with Siemens
o Greeece's NBG to back Finansbank rights issue-
reuters
o Greece's National Bank
(NBGr.AT) will back a rights issue by its Turkish unit Finansbank as Tier 2
capital is converted into core equity
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67H0ND20100818
o Brazil banks could expand in Peru, Colombia – UBS-
Reuters
o Brazilian banks Itau
Unibanco and Banco do Brasil, which have been looking to expand in Latin
America, are likely to seek takeover targets in Mexico, Argentina, Colombia,
Peru or Chile, UBS analysts said in a report.
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2013886620100820
o ENRC buys majority of Kolwezi, Congo assets-
reuters
o Kazakh mining group ENRC
(ENRC.L) has agreed to pay $175 million for a majority stake in a company that
has licences for copper assets in Congo, including a permit revoked from
Canada's First Quantum Minerals
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67J1C120100820
o First Quantum says ENRC Congo deal violates ruling-
Reuters
o First Quantum said that a
tribunal at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris had issued an order
the day before the ENRC announcement to prohibit Congo "from taking any
action to transfer or allow the transfer of the Kolwezi tailings exploitation
permit".
o Mexican group buys stake in troubled airline-
Reuters
o Mexican consortium, aided
by private equity firm Advent International, has stepped up to buy a
controlling stake in troubled airline Mexicana after financial woes pushed the
carrier to the brink of collapse
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2117802220100821
o Bidders seek guarantees on Ireland's EBS- Sunday
Tims
o Private equity groups
looking to take a majority stake in Ireland's EBS [EBSBS.UL] are to seek
assurances from the Irish government that it will help bear any future
exceptional losses at the building society
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67L03620100822
o National Pension says bidding for Colonial
Pipeline- reuters
o South Korea's state-run
National Pension Service is seeking to acquire a 23 percent stake in U.S.
pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline from Chevron Corp (CVX.N), the world's No.5
pension fund said on Monday.
o \ http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE67L01D20100822
o Aussie's Prime shares jump on BIP Brookfield
merger- Reuters
o Brookfield Infrastructure
Partners (BIP.N) and Australia's Prime Infrastructure (PIH.AX) have agreed to
merge to seek growth opportunities, the companies said, sending Prime shares up
20 percent.
o http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE67M00O20100823
IPOs
o
Barron's cover
story says the General Motors IPO could value the car maker at $60B
PRICINGS
o Initial
Offerings
o WSR
Whitestone REIT 3.3m share IPO
expected to priece 8/23 via Wunderlich and Ladenburg: Price Talk $14-16
o SRGV
SurgiVision Inc 3.6m share IPO
expected to price 8/24 via Rodman: Price Talk $5
o FULL
Full Circle Capital Corp 2.8m share
IPO expected to price 8/25 via Ladengburg: Price Talk $8-10
o Secondary
Offerings
o
Capitol Federal Financial Inc. (CFFN)--185
million shares expected to price via Sandler O'Neill & Partners.
o
ENCO Encorium Group files
amended S-1; to distributed up to 3.4M rights at $1.75/share
o
The subscription rights will expire if not
exercised by 17:00 ET on 30-Sep, though may be extended for additional periods
ending no later than 15-Oct.
o IPO
Market Turning, Says Safeguard CEO
o
Peter Boni, CEO of Safeguard Scientifics,
says the moribund IPO market may soon pick up steam, especially in the tech and
life-sciences arenas
o
http://www.thestreet.com/video/10841187/ipo-market-turning-says-safeguard-ceo.html
o Kuwait,
Qatar funds raise AgBank IPO investment- Arabian business
o
Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), the
country's sovereign wealth fund agreed to more than double its investment in
Agricultural Bank of China's initial public offering to $1.9 billion
o
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/595470-kuwait-qatar-funds-raise-agbank-ipo-investment--paper
o Hulu
IPO may draw YHOO Yahoo!- NYPOST
o
Hulu, owned by three of the biggest US
broadcast networks, is preparing a share sale as early as this year that may
value the company at more than $2 billion
o
Yahoo!, owner of the second-most popular US
Internet search engine, would consider acquiring a stake in Hulu to solidify
itself as an entertainment destination and a "must-buy" for
advertisers
o TODAY’S
EVENTS
o
CONFERENCES
o CFA
Institute / ICMA: International Fixed Income and Derivatives Programme - Aug
21, 2010 - Aug 27, 2010
o Commerzbank
Life Sciences Forum
§ NTS: BASFY.PK, GRRMF.PK, MPSYY.PK, SBS.DE
o EnerCom
Incorporated Oil & Gas Conference - Aug 22, 2010 - Aug 26, 2010
§ 10:25AM: CLB
§ 11:15AM: DWSN
§ 11:40AM: VQ
§ 12:05PM: WLL
§ 12:30PM: XEC
§ 12:55PM: EXXI
§ 1:45PM: HNR
§ 3:30PM: GDP
§ 4:20PM: BEXP
§ 5:35PM: PHX
§ 6PM: ATLS
§ 6:25PM: BBG
o Nomura
Securities Co., Ltd. Taiwan Corporate Day - Aug 23, 2010 - Aug 24, 2010
o
TODAY’S EVENTS
o
Shareholder Meetings
§
BLK, GASS, OSTE, NANX, HTM
o
ECONOMICS
o
0830 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
o EARNINGS
o Consumer/Retail/Education
·
TUES, SAFM
o Financials
·
CISG
o Healthcare
·
KNSY
o Transports
·
GASS
o Media
·
FMCN, CNYD
***All eco data from Bloomberg and DJ
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the information contained herein or any reliance on that information. Cantor
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