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May 23, 2012 2:18 AM EDT
Updated: Aug 23, 2010 5:57 AM EDT  

Morning @ Cantor

 

Morning @ Cantor 8/23

Today’s Stories From Cantor Fitzgerald

Sal Catrini (908) 517-5067

 

 

CONTENTS: All Headings Are Functioning Links

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Early US Landscape

Today’s Big Stories

Sector News: Energy, Industrials, Transports, TMT, Materials, Autos, Fins, Real Estate, Consumer, Gaming/Lodging, HC, Europe Trading Wrap, Asia Trading Wrap

Investment Banking Wrap: M&A, Money Raising

Today’s Events

Cantor Trading Recap

EARLY US LANDSCAPE****

 

 
 

 


o   US Stock Futures

o   S&P Futures up 6 , at sessions highs at 7am et …. Europe markets: at highs , up 0.9% at 7am et

o   Euro PMIs came out mixed…….EUR trades dn…but mostly recovers by 7 am et  

o   A new round of takeover talk and a rising mining sector have given leading shares a lift at the start of the week's trading.

o   Miners leads Monday on spec mining tax in Australia may be scrapped post election..BBG

o   Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week from zero hedge

o   Three-Month Euribor Rises for First Time in 11 Days

o   Libor : 3-month: Dollar: 0.318% vs prior 0.329%

o   Crude up small Oil Trades Near Six-Week Low

o   Hedge Funds Cut Gasoline Bets Most Since 2006: BBG

o   this morning, spot gold is up small to $1228.50

o   Spot gold was down $4.50 on Friday..for the week: spot gold was up 1%,

o   coffee at new 12 yr highs

o   Prices for coffee beans have returned to nearly 13-year highs, defying expectations for a selloff ahead of Brazil's harvest.  WSJ

o   Cocoa prices likely to rise – WSJ

o   this morning, base metals are little changed…aluminum is up 1%

o   The Baltic Dry was up another 4.2% on Friday, up 11.6% for the week

o   FX stories:  USD mixed to dn at 7am et

§  The dollar edged lower through the Asian session Monday, while the yen and Swiss franc continued recent gains on worries about growth prospects in the developed economies.

§  EUR trades dn…but mostly recovers by 7 am et 

§  USD/JPY falls on informal Shirakawa-Kan talks with no mention of FX intervention – TTN

o   Investors have increased their bets against the euro after six straight weeks of paring their anti-euro bets, according to data released Friday.

§   Net speculative bets, called shorts, against the euro were at 14,600 with a value of $2.3 billion in the week ended Tuesday, compared to the 3,700 contracts with a value of $595 million in data from the week prior, according to weekly Commitments of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday afternoon.

o   The GBP was stung a bit by a BOE/CEPR Roundtable in which it believed that a weaker GBP was key in the resilience of inflation

§  Swiss National Bank (Dow Jones)--The Swiss National Bank could still intervene in currency markets should that become necessary to maintain price stability despite having accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves from past interventions, the central bank's president says Saturday in a newspaper interview.

 

o   Treasuries: Rates flattish at 7am et

o   Investors Gobble Up Long-Term Tsys   The 30-year Treasury bond enjoyed its best week since May, as investors burrowed further into the haven of government debt amid signs of a weaker economy.

o   Even with a decline Friday, the price of the so-called long bond rose sharply on the week, driving the yield, which moves in the opposite direction, down to 3.661%.

o   Other Treasury debt also gained during the week, but longer-dated Treasurys did the best. The 10-year note's yield fell to 2.614%, while the two-year note yield fell to 0.496%, just above its record low.

o   The net effect was a narrower gap between long-term and short-term interest rates 

o   Rethinking The 'Long' Bond (ie 100 ye bonds!) – WSJ discusses

§  London Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard commented on the efforts by China to diversify its foreign exchange reserves. In particular he noted various countries, including China, Japan and the UK, have decreased treasury positions. As some countries have lowered their exposures to US government bonds, US citizens have increased savings and investments in bond funds.

o   Danielle forecast to be hurricane mid-week from USATODAY.com

o   The hurricane center predicted that Danielle will become the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season by late Tuesday. Its potential effect on the USA is uncertain.

 

o   Overseas Action

o   Europe markets: at highs , up 0.9% at 7am et

§  Mixed PMIs out of Europe today weigh on trade

·         The euro zone's private sector expanded at a slower pace in August, weighed down by both the manufacturing and services sectors, but remained well above the key break-even level of 50, a survey by financial-information firm Markit showed Monday

·         http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703846604575446771415258984.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

o   Asia: Nikkei (0.69%); Hang Seng (0.44%); Shanghai Comp (0.1%)

o   Japan fell on disappointment with talks held between Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa about the strength of the yen; Kan reportedly did not request that any monetary policy steps be taken to counter the strength

o   Australia's stock index trades little changed, but outperforms some of its regional counterparts despite what will likely be the country's first hung parliament in 70 years

o   Reforms to China’s political system are necessary if the nation’s rapid economic growth is to be maintained, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao says, according to state media reports.

o   Construction Bank bets estimates in China

§  China Construction Bank (601939.CH) edged down on a report that a housing price fall of 60% would cause an insignificant increase in the default rate on loans the bank issues.  SA

o    Japan's stimulus, forex plans remain uncertain

§   MarketWatch) -- A much-awaited meeting between Japan's government and central bank to discuss obstacles facing the economy took place over the telephone Monday

§   http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japans-stimulus-forex-plans-remain-uncertain-2010-08-22?siteid=rss&rss=1

o    Japan DJP official stated that he was not optimistic regarding the rise in yen and its impact on the country's employment scenario. He stressed that it needed to take comprehensive steps on economy – TTN

o    Moody’s Cuts Bahrain Credit Ratings, Citing Budget

o   Data:

§  Euro Zone Aug Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 55.0 v 56.1e; PMI Services: 55.6 v 55.4e; PMI Composite: 56.1 v 56.3e

§  France Aug Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 54.7 v 53.4e

§  Germany Aug Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 58.2 v 60.5e; PMI Services: 58.5 v 56.2e

§  Thailand had a strong Q2

 

o   Economics  duetoday:

o   Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 08:30 ET

o   Israeli Central Bank Base Rate Announcement: Consensus expectations are for the base rate to remain unchanged at 1.75%. There is a less than 10% chance that the rate could be raised by 25bps to 2.00% - TTN

o   13:00 (US) Treasury to Sell 30-Year TIPS

  • Earnings:

o   There are no major companies due to report this session

 

o   Coast Guard starts another round of hearings on the     Deepwater Horizon explosion

o   Kenneth Feinberg, who today will start drawing from a $20b     escrow fund for Gulf oil spill victims, hasn’t decided   whether they must waive their right to sue companies involved if they accept final reimbursement

o   National Assoc. of Insurance Commissioners holds 3pm     conference call; watch for any comments on medical-spending   rules for health insurers

o   Tropical Storm Frank, off the southern coast of Mexico, may     become a hurricane later today, the National Weather Service    said. Atlantic Tropical Storm Danielle may become a    hurricane within 24 hours.

o   Other key upcoming events:

o   JAZZ dn 40% after hrs… Jazz Pharmaceuticals will hold conference call regarding the FDA panel vote on JZP-6 (rekinla) for fibromyalgia; the call will take place at 0830ET on Monday, 23-Aug. dial in 866.713.8566 in the U.S. or 617.597.5325 outside the U.S. and entering 35059911

o   Federal investigators again try to question BP spill witnesses (Monday) from Wash Post

o   A federal investigative panel will begin its next round of hearings Monday into the Deepwater Horizon disaster and call witnesses who can address alleged shortcuts in the drilling of the BP oil well, problems with the failed blowout preventer and the confused scene after an explosion on the rig.

o   Up to 3 IPOs expected this week

o   Homebuilder TOL reports tues

o   BHP reports mid week

o   Friday brings the first revision of second-quarter GDP

o   US Treasury is scheduled to issue $102 billion in 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes

o   Specialty teen retailers Guess, American Eagle and J. Crew announce earnings

o   Tuesday's primaries

§  Midterm primaries held in Alaska, Arizona and Florida.

o   President Obama and his family on vacation in Martha's Vineyard, until Aug. 29

o   New Proxy Rule Puts Heat on Firms from WSJ.com

§  Stockholders are set to gain greater clout to elect corporate directors on Wednesday when the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to finalize a "proxy access" rule.

o   all eyes turn to this week's Jackson Hole Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium

§  10 a.m.Friday: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on the economic outlook, at the Kansas City Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming

§  public Fed venue (and last) before the September 21 FOMC meeting, many will be focused on Bernanke's speech to see if he will telegraph the purchases of even more securities – ZH

§  it will be worth watching whether Fed Chairman Bernanke will comment in his opening remarks on the recent data disappointments and/or the ongoing debate on the appropriate stance of monetary policy

§  And finally something quite odd about this year's meeting - as Bloomberg's Scott Lanman points out, the head of the FRBNY's trading desk, better known as the PPT, Brian Sack, is not invited to this meeting for the first time

TODAY’S BIG STORIES

 
 

 


o   Top M&A

o   HSBC nears £4bn deal for South Africa's Nedbank – Telegraph

§  Old Mutual could sell big piece of Nedbank – BBG

o   S Eight Republican Senators ask Obama administration to look at Huawei's bid to supply equipment to Sprint Nextel – NYT

o   CPB Campbell Soup thought to be planning £1.5B bid for United Biscuits's biscuit-making arm – Guardian

o   POT Stories busy….

§  POTASHCORP STILL REJECTS BHP OFFER, BEEN APPROACHED BY OTHERS – press release

·         POTASHCORP IN TALKS WITH SEVERAL THIRD PARTIES ON ALTERNATIVES   

§  Consortium Led By China's Hopu Studying Potash Bid – DJ

·         A consortium led by Chinese private-equity fund Hopu Investment Management Co. is studying the feasibility of a bid for Potash  Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., a person familiar with the situation said Monday.

·          The consortium is made up of investors from Canada, the U.S. and Asia, and includes at least two sovereign wealth funds, the knowledgeable person said. No decision has been finalized yet on whether to proceed with a bid for the Canadian fertilizer maker, the person said.

§  BHP, POT The Trader believes BHP Billiton could raise its offer for Potash to $163 thought at this price the deal wouldn't add to profits until 2014, according to Credit Suisse.

§  Sinochem, Vale eye Potash: Business Spectator

o   APD, APD Even without Airgas, shares of Air Products should appreciate nicely, says Barron's

o   CVX:  South Korea's National Pension Service is seeking to buy 23% of U.S. pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline from Chevron for an estimated $845 million. WSJ

o   Terex, Akamai:  WSJ(8/21)Options Report:Takeover Bets Play Out In Terex, Akamai

o   Retail for Sale: Time for Private Equity to Shop – CNBC

§  Three names to watch are: American Eagle Outfitters,  BJ's Wholesale and La-Z-Boy,

§  http://www.cnbc.com/id/38787249

o   SABMiller, Asahi Eye Foster's Beer; No Formal Bid Yet from CNBC

§  Foster’s (FGL.AU) jumped 8% on reports that SABMiller (SAB.LN) may offer £7B for the group’s beer arm.

o   Nearly $85 billion of transactions have been announced since last Monday, the highest weekly sum since the week of Dec. 13, 2009, when Exxon Mobil Corp. announced its $40 billion acquisition of XTO Energy Inc., according to Dealogic

§  One factor may be the cash burning in their pockets. U.S. public companies carried $2.03 trillion in cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter, according to data from FactSet Research. That's about 57% above the level at the same tome in 2006.

o   Dealmakers seize the moment on mergers and acquisitions from Financial Times

§  Dealmakers are rushing to capitalise on a window of opportunity to launch transactions, after volatile financing markets for much of this year kept a lid on a sustainable recovery in mergers and acquisitions

§  Deal volumes, which looked sluggish at best at the half-year stage, are running almost 20 per cent ahead of 2009, after a strong showing in July and August

o   WSJ: Price For 510 Madison Ave Among Highest Since Downturn Began

o   Top $ Raising

o   Barron's cover story says the General Motors IPO could value the car maker at $60B  

o   Credit markets stories: 

·         Bankers Pitch 100-Year Bonds

o    Bond investors are buying almost anything the market throws at them. Now some bankers want to put those appetites to a full test and have begun sounding out investors about 100-year bonds.

o   Europe leads way for Yankee bond sales from Financial Times

§  Non-US companies have issued record volumes of US bonds this year, as they turn to dollar markets to access cheap funding

o   Banks undervaluing our property,say small firms seeking loans from Telegraph Finance

§  A lobby group says that banks are undervaluing the property which small companies offer as security against loans, further inhibiting access to finance.

o   Ireland's NAMA will apply a discount of more than 60% to a second batch of loans it is buying from Anglo Irish Bank Corp

o   Money flows:  NYT on not really new theme…. Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds.

o   If that pace continues, more money will be pulled out of these mutual funds in 2010 than in any year since the 1980s, with the exception of 2008, when the global financial crisis peaked

o   http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/business/22invest.html?_r=2&hp

o   Big Derivatives fight:  Fighting Flares on New Rules For Street – WSJ

§  Banks, companies and trade associations challenged federal regulators Friday over the controversial question of how to regulate derivatives under the new Dodd-Frank financial revamp, the first big day of posturing since the law was enacted last month.

§  The meetings, particularly a three-hour roundtable hosted jointly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, illustrate how Wall Street's attention has shifted from Congress

§  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703579804575441750105850046.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fxml%2Frss%2F3_7011+%28WSJ.com%3A+What%27s+News+US%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

o   Muni’s:

o   Avoiding a Muni Wreck from Barron's

·         The SEC's move against New Jersey was just its first step to make muni bonds more transparent

o   Connecticut Muni Ratings Case Against S&P To Proceed – DJ

§  Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal said Friday the Superior Court has rejected Standard & Poor's motion to dismiss his case against the credit rating agency for allegedly giving artificially low credit ratings to municipalities

§   Those ratings cost taxpayers millions of dollars in unnecessary bond insurance and higher interest rates, Blumenthal said in a press release.

§   His case against S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos. (MHP), as well as companion cases against Moody's Corp. (MCO) and Fitch Inc., will all now advance in state court.

§   "We are seeking to hold Wall Street accountable to Main Street for millions of dollars unfairly imposed on Connecticut taxpayers," Blumenthal said.

o   Cities Privatize Assets Amid Cuts from WSJ.com

§  Cities and states across the nation are selling and leasing everything from airports to zoos—a fire sale that could help plug budget holes now but worsen their financial woes over the long run.

o   Fed Watch:

o   Some Fed officials losing spots at annual Jackson Hole retreat from Wash Post

§  Some Federal Reserve officials accustomed to an automatic invitation to the central bank's annual mountainside symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., came up empty-handed this year

o   Fed Officials Push FDIC-Like Backstop for ABS Markets from American Banker

§  Two Fed economists argue that an explicit backstop of certain asset-backed securities could ensure the stability of the system in future financial crises and help eliminate the concept of "too big to fail" institutions

 

o   Macro negative:

o   Eight US Banks Fail in Four States

o   Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar

§  John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

§  http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100823.htm

o   Upper-Income Taxpayers Plan for Increase  WSJ

§  An emerging group of higher-income taxpayers assume they will see higher taxes next year, no matter what Congress does to address the expiring tax cuts from the Bush administration.

o   U.S. Reviews Tech Spending from WSJ.com

§  Obama administration officials are considering overhauling 26 troubled federal technology projects valued at as much as $30 billion as part of a broader effort by White House budget officials to cut spending.

o   Loan-Mod Program Loses Steam  WSJ

§  The number of homeowners who began government-sponsored loan-modifications in July grew by the slowest rate since the Obama administration's program began 18 months ago and was dwarfed by the number of borrowers whose modifications were canceled

o   China bank property stress test finds risk: report from Reuters

§   A 50-percent drop in China's property prices will lead to a surge in bad real estate loans for Chinese lenders, a local newspaper reported, citing the results of the latest round of a Chinese bank stress test.

o   More suppliers going bust from Telegraph Finance

§  The number of businesses going bust that supply goods and services to the public sector has increased by 47pc, as government spending cuts lead to delayed and cancelled contracts.

o   “The Spanish government has been increasingly resorting to the social security reserve fund to buy its bonds.”

§  http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/how-many-times-can-one-driver-fall-asleep-at-the-same-wheel-and-live/

o   Moody's released tidbits of its Semi Annual European Sovereign Outlook and noted that the European economic growth was seen lower compared to other region of the world. The report suggested that lower growth posed downside risks for its sovereign ratings. Financial crisis and divergences to challenge EU 'cornerstone' but added that the fiscal consolidation could be positive for growth and that the stronger focus on government spending was 'encouraging'. Greece debt stabilization could occur before 2013

o   BOE/CEPR Roundtable: Commented that it saw signs that the global economy might be losing momentum with risks to growth largely to the downside. It believed that British Pound currency decline was key in the resilience of inflation and that the broad consensus that QE would be effective if used again - TTN

o   Macro Positive:

o   The Baltic Dry was up another 4.2% on Friday, up 11.6% for the week

o   Buybacks Over Deals from WSJ.com

§  A recent flurry of merger activity captured investors' imagination last week. While no one is calling for a new mergers boom, many are looking for companies to increasingly spread some of that money in other ways—namely through dividends and buybacks.

o   Doug Kass: Soon Time to 'Re-Risk' from CNBC

o   Tokyo Steel plans Sept across-the-board price rise from Business Spectator

·         Japan's biggest construction steelmaker cites rebound in steel scrap costs

o   German Businesses See Record 3.4% Growth In 2010 –AFP

§  The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) now expects
the country's economy to grow by a record 3.4% this year, its chief Martin
Wansleben said Saturday.

§  "The recovery is expanding," Wansleben told the weekly Der Spiegel, which is to hit newsstands on Monday

§  Businesses are investing again and "even consumption is accelerating thanks to favorable developments in the labour market," he added

§   The forecast is considerably higher than the revised 3.0% forecast issued Thursday by the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, and would see Europe's largest economy tie the growth record it set in 2006.

o   German Deficit Could Slip Under EUR60B - Finance Minister(AFP)

§  Germany's budget deficit could be less than EUR60 billion ($76.3 billion) thanks to a strong upturn in the country's economy, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a weekend interview. Whereas the government has forecast a shortfall of EUR65 billion, "I see good chances that we will finish under 60 billion euros this year," Schaeuble told the Rheinische Post regional newspaper.

o   A Glut of Hiring Alternatives

o   Instead of bringing on full-time talent, small employers are increasingly using temporary workers based in the U.S. and overseas

o   At one time, Carroll says, he had a sales staff of seven 20-somethings, but he found their work ethic lacking. "I felt like I wasn't doing the business; I was babysitting the employees," he says. Increasing commissions didn't help. "Millennials have a very different view of work. Money doesn't drive them, because they perceive that they don't need it,"

o   http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/aug2010/sb20100820_996039.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories

o   Russia Boosts U.S. Assets in Reserves as It Cuts U.K. Holdings - BBG

o   Russia boosted the share of U.S. government notes and bonds in its reserves by 2 percentage points at the end of last year as it decreased holdings of U.K. assets, the central bank said.

o    

o   flash crash stories:

o   Ominously, Flash Crash Still Baffles from DealBook

§  Months later, analysts are still seeking the cause of a quick and mysterious plunge of the stock markets; some suspect a conspiracy.

§  the bizarre patterns might have been the result of a Wall Street version of cyberwarfare.

§  The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission plan to issue a final report on their findings in September.

§  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/business/23flash.html?_r=1&dbk

o   Brokers face fines over role in flash crash - link from Financial Times

§  Brokers who allowed high-frequency traders to have access to the markets without undertaking proper checks on them face potential fines as part of a clampdown following the “flash crash”, the head of a US watchdog said on Sunday

o   America no longer needs Chinese money, for now from Telegraph Finance

o   As the Sino-American showdown in the South China and Yellow Seas escalates into the gravest superpower clash since the Cold War, the United States cannot wisely rely on China to help fund its budget deficit for any longer.

o   Healthcare stock in focus pre-open Monday

o   JAZZ dn 40% after hrs…data

o   WCRX up 2%  ,  Warner Chilcott said it reached an agreement to amend its credit facilities in order to add another $1.5 billion in new term loans, which will help pay for a previously announced special dividend. But the maker of branded prescription women's health-care and dermatology products also reduced its full-year earnings outlook as a result. Shares rose 2.2% to $28.75 after hours.

o   CPIX dn 9%...Cumberland Pharmaceuticals said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has extended its review of its drug Acetadote in patients with non-acetaminophen acute liver failure. Shares sank 8.6% to $5.50 in after-hours trading.

o   AU Optronics (2409.TT) fell 2% after a US court barred some of the company’s top executives from leaving the US as a result of an LCD panel price-fixing probe.

o   Miners leads Monday on spec mining tax in Australia may be scrapped post election..BBG, CNBC

o   Demand positive:  Shares of Kingspan Group surged 9% on Monday after the Irish building-materials firm posted operating profit growth for the first time in three years, helped by a recovery in U.S. and Central European markets, and forecast “robust” revenue growth in the second half.  MW

o   Demand positive:    Gome Profit Surges 66% on Rising China Demand for Appliances…….Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd., the Chinese retailer suing its billionaire founder, Huang Guangyu, said first-half profit rose 66 percent as Chinese consumer spending rebounded - BBG

o   AIG:   Reuters) - American International Group's aircraft leasing unit ILFC repaid nearly $4 billion of U.S. loans after raising new debt from investors

o   Political Stories:

o   Will Oz Set Pattern for Obama?  WSJ BLOG

§  If once is chance, twice is coincidence and a third time is a pattern, the American left better pray there isn't a pattern.

§   First it was the U.K. choosing right-leaning David Cameron in May and last night, Australia drifted even more right than anyone expected. With U.S. Senate campaigns set to ratchet up in the coming months and a federal election there about two years away, the Australia is trying to become a calling card for those on the right the world over.

§   "I reckon we're nearly there. And up next, [U.S. President Barack] Obama," said Timothy Sutton, a Coalition supporter and Australian land broker on the floor of Tony Abbott's election headquarters party at the Four Seasons in Sydney last night.

o   Dems urge Obama to take a stand

§  He has left wide swaths of the Democratic Party uncertain of his core beliefs.

§  Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41356.html#ixzz0xPza03eT

o   GOP's Cash Handicap Raises Concerns from WSJ.com

§  The Republican National Committee's $5.3 million war chest for the final stretch of the midterm campaign—half the amount of its Democratic counterpart—is causing anxiety among GOP operatives

o   Senate Landscape Shifts Farther in Favor of GOP from CQ

§  It’s hit that point in the election cycle where the competitive nature of Congressional races are shifting rapidly. Unfortunately for Democrats, the overwhelming majority of those shifts are in favor of Republicans.

o   Dean: Democrats Will Do Better Than Expected on Nov. 2 from Roll Call

§  Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean predicted Sunday that Democrats will fare better than expected this November, urging them to put aside their differences and "let's win."

o   Iran threatens to attack U.S. interests around the world if provoked – The Hill

§  Iran unveiled an unmanned "ambassador of death" drone Sunday as a senior official warned against any "illogical move" by America.

o   Israel Knesset Member Declares "We Are Preparing For War" from zero hedge

o   IAEA Maintains Monitoring Of Iran's First Nuclear Plant

§  (AFP)--The United Nations atomic watchdog IAEA said Saturday that it continued to monitor Iran's nuclear power plant in Bushehr, which was fired up amid suspicions by world powers about Tehran's nuclear intentions.   "The International Atomic Energy Agency regularly inspects the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran," IAEA press officer Ayhan Evrensel said in a statement.  "The Agency is taking the appropriate verification measures in line with its established safeguards procedures," he added.

o   Protests, Rhetoric Feed Jihadists' Fire from WSJ.com

§  Islamic radicals are seizing on protests against a planned Islamic community center near Ground Zero as a propaganda opportunity and are stepping up anti-U.S. chatter and threats on their websites.

o   Meeting to Clarify North Korea's Path from WSJ.com

§  The biggest meeting of North Korea's ruling party in 44 years may give a first look at its potential next leader, but another surprise might be in store: a step away from dictatorship to collective rule.

o   China Premier Wen calls for political reform: report from Reuters

§   China has to pursue political reform to safeguard its economic health, Premier Wen Jiabao said during a visit to the booming town of Shenzhen, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

o   Los Angeles 'Big One' Could Come Sooner Than Expected: Study from Discovery News

§  Strong earthquakes along the San Andreas fault are a lot more frequent than previously thought

o   Americans confused about healthcare reform: poll from Reuters

§  "The healthcare debate raised people's expectations and there is now disappointment as a result that the problem isn't solved,"

o   NYC Transit Worker Tests Positive For Tuberculosis -NY Post

o   Shootout Near School Shocks Mexico from WSJ.com

§  A shootout in front of a prestigious international school in Monterrey has fueled fears that violence is spreading even to wealthy areas of Mexico that had been seen as safe.

o   South Korea free trade pact back on U.S. agenda from Wash Post

o   WSJ(8/21) Prosecutors Eye WikiLeaks Charges

§  Pentagon lawyers have concluded that online whistleblower group WikiLeaks acted illegally in disclosing thousands of classified Afghanistan war reports and other material, and federal prosecutors are exploring possible criminal charges

o   Fund Stories

o   Buffett's Semi-Secret Stock-Picker Set to Retire – CNBC link

§  Lou Simpson will retire at the end of the year.

§  For decades, he's been quietly, independently, and profitably managing the now $4 billion investment portfolio at Geico, the Berkshire Hathaway insurance subsidiary.

§  Buffett will take over those responsibilities, but there's some speculation Simpson's departure could create an opportunity for Li Lu, the Chinese investor who Charlie Munger says is a "foregone conclusion" to become one of Berkshire's top decision makers on investments

o   TPG Capital  (Reuters) - TPG Capital [TPG.UL], one of the world's biggest private equity firms, said on Monday that it aims to raise 5 billion yuan ($736.4 million) in its first yuan-denominated fund in Shanghai

o   Hedge Fund Heavyweight Paulson Makes New Housing Bet - cnbc

§  will be throwing his hat into the race to acquire residential land—and dirt cheap.

§  Paulson, who manages the $31 billion Paulson & Co. fund, has made a "stalking horse" bid of $42.4 million to acquire the assets of Engle Homes, which includes land and lots in Arizona targeted for more than 8,000 homes, and nine completed residences.

§  http://www.cnbc.com//id/38789781

o   US Said To End Probe Of Fund Managers' Bets On Euro –Reuters

§  The U.S. Justice Department has dropped an investigation into whether a group of hedge fund managers conspired at an "idea dinner" to drive down the value of the euro, Reuters reports Friday, citing three people close to some of the funds.  Officials with the department's antitrust division recently told representatives of several hedge funds that the six-month inquiry had been closed, the sources said. Full story at http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67J4AO20100820

o   Hedge Fund Corners the Cocoa Market from zero hedge

§  London based Anthony Ward’s Amajaro hedge fund built up a billion dollar long position in the cocoa futures market which traders expected him to unwind going into expiration

§  The move triggered some extreme volatility in the markets. The difficulties of transporting and storing this quantity of a perishable commodity boggle the mind. Ward, a long time successful cocoa trader, is clearly taking advantage of a poor crop this year in the Ivory Coast, a major producer, betting on a price rise. The move was so unexpected that traders and big consumers, like Cadbury and Nestle, have been caught short. Although these giants hedge their requirements years in advance in the futures markets, no one expected this amount of product to be taken off the market so quickly

o   Hedge witch hunt from NY Post

§  One of New York's wealthiest hedge-fund gurus is on a witch hunt to track down the person who leaked his fund's latest quarterly investor letter.

§  the move this week by Paul Singer, founder of $17 billion New York hedge fund Elliott Management Corp., to actually seek a court order to force a media outlet to divulge its sources, is extremely rare.

 

 
 

 


o   Equity Recap

o   The M&A action continued its heavy pace, especially .vs. your typical august doldrums, in spite of that  the market  found a way to work its way lower but not much to move the needle. Trend is still down and some new technical’s have been established on our way back down to ultimately 870(that’s what the only people with money and conviction feel). The economic and macro data still is nothing to get excited about and the talk is not a matter of yes or no  but a matter of when, on the question of when the qe will stop. Corporate earnings have been better for the most part but the guidance in a lot of cases has been cloudy  and if you check with most retailers, things have not been too rosy there.  That has been my point, if we all would take the peter lynch type of approach and ask 7 out of 10 of our friends outside of wall street, how things are, you’ll get the cancer has been removed but the patient is still in the hospital. The action has been quiet on the trading front with most pm’s and analyst out enjoying their last week or 2 with their kids before they go back to school. Technically we took out that 1,071 level which had held prior to this, next up sp 1000. From what we’ve seen, there have been guys adding to tech, retail being covered, and some real selling but nothing to tilt the needle. Indexes  for the week Dow - .81%  /  S&P 500  - .65%  /  Nasdaq  +.33%  /  Russell 2000  - .46%

o   Billy Clark and Team

o   Credit Market Wrap

o   Much quieter last week in high yield primary issuance versus recent deluge, with $2bn raised on the week by 6 issuers.

o   Interesting to note first signs of push back from investors

o   Expect to see continued investment grade issuance, which was led this week by banks and financials, given the absolute treasury yields making it very enticing for issuers

o   HY secondary flows muted with late summer setting in...

o   Rates Commentary

o   Another day and another volatile curve day. 30yrs were once again the star or should I say 2/36’s and that hump of the long end yield curve. Yesterday there was a very large (9k) ultra bond contract trade in December contracts. Bottom line: as a result of yesterdays trade the 2/36’s (CTD on ultra bond contract) outperformed 2/26 bonds (CTD on regular bond contract by close to 3bp’s. That’s a rather significant DV01! From today’s trading action we surmise that the seller is still short ultra contracts (i.e. 2/36) and long 30yr bonds and regular bond contracts. We imagine that ‘36/’37 paper will remain rich over the near term. In addition to this the nominal yield curve flattened sharply, once again, as the need for yield both on domestic and global level continues to grip the credit markets. 

o   The market did suffer late afternoon as equity markets managed to stage a modest comeback from earlier levels (-1% to close only -.5% lower). Treasuries, particularly the middle part of the curve (5’s-10’s) led us lower with 5/30’s flattening another 5.5 bp’s bringing this recent flattening move in roughly 30bp’s since the last bond auction. There was a large 5/30 flattener put though early this morning through the futures contracts.  Also of note is the 10/30 spread which closed today in 3.5bp’s to 104 but 2/10’s steepening out to 212 for a 3bp gain. Certainly not a market for the faint of heart. We still expect modest flattening in the near term as the market will get approximately $250B in new debt next week ( includes bill through 30 yr tips) plus continued talk of China lightening up on US holdings. Obviously we will see how everything pans out. We have maintained small flattening trade and look to add to these over time. We are also better sellers of the 2’s, 5’s, and 7 year rolls so please feel free to enquire.

o   Primary Dealer

 

SECTOR NEWS WITH MACRO IMPLICATIONS

 

 
 

 

 

ENERGY

 
 

 


o   CVX:  South Korea's National Pension Service is seeking to buy 23% of U.S. pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline from Chevron for an estimated $845 million. WSJ

o   HP Barron's feature says Helmerich & Payne will continue to benefit from a move to new high performance drilling rigs

o   Feinberg Says Spill Victims May Be Able to Sue Some Companies – BBG

o   Hedge Funds Cut Gasoline Bets Most Since 2006: BBG

o   Germany May Drop a Planned Nuclear Tax, Sueddeutsche Says

o   Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks – guardian

o   Behind government dismissals of 'alarmist' fears there is growing concern over critical future energy supplies

o   Speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about a future supply crunch than they have admitted has been fuelled by the revelation that they are canvassing views from industry and the scientific community about "peak oil".

o   http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/peak-oil-department-energy-climate-change

o   Federal investigators again try to question BP spill witnesses (Monday) from Wash Post

o   A federal investigative panel will begin its next round of hearings Monday into the Deepwater Horizon disaster and call witnesses who can address alleged shortcuts in the drilling of the BP oil well, problems with the failed blowout preventer and the confused scene after an explosion on the rig.

o   BP Begins to Remove Drilling Pipe – WSJ

§  BP said that it has begun an attempt to remove the drilling pipe from the ruptured well that unleashed the Deepwater Horizon spill.

o   Compensation czar takes charge of $20 billion BP fund from Reuters

§  NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - A $20 billion compensation fund for economic victims of the BP Gulf oil spill opens for business on Monday amid accusations that the rules established by its administrator are unfair.

o   Oil-Fund Czar Vows Ample Payouts from WSJ.com

§  Kenneth Feinberg, administrator of the $20 billion fund set up to compensate victims of the Deepwater Horizon spill, said he aims to ensure claimants would be more likely to obtain higher and more-expeditious payouts from the fund than through litigation.

o   Ex-Chevron Chief Joins Saudi Oil Company Board – WSJ

§  Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah issued a decree to appoint former Chevron Corp. Chief Executive and Chairman David J. O'Reilly to the board of directors of Saudi Arabian Oil.

o   U.S. Saw Drill Ban Killing Many Jobs– WSJ

§  The Obama administration disclosed its deliberations about the effects of its moratorium on deepwater drilling, saying it would cost 23,000 jobs and freeze up to $10.2 billion in investment.

o   Higher Oil Prices Boost Sinopec's First-Half Profit – WSJ

§  China Petroleum & Chemical, also known as Sinopec, said its first-half net profit rose 6.7% as higher oil prices and fuel sales offset lower refining margins.

o   Chinese battery and car maker BYD Co. (1211.HK) said Sunday its first-half net profit more than double from a year earlier, supported by Beijing's measures to boost car sales.  BYD, which is 10%-owned by MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., a unit of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA, BRKB)

o   Dana To Bolster Defenses Against KNOC Bid-Dana Petroleum PLC (DNX.LN) will seek to bolster its defenses this week with interim results and more details of a planned acquisition, the Mail on Sunday reports.  According to the newspaper, Dana will outline plans to acquire the North Sea assets of Canada's Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) and unveil upbeat production news about some of its North Sea wells.   The company is being targeted by Korea National Oil Corp. in a GBP1.87 billion hostile bid.

o   Proliferation of old-style coal plants increases despite public outcry from Wash Post

§  Utilities across the country are building dozens of old-style coal plants that will cement the industry's standing as the largest industrial source of climate-changing gases for years to come

o   London-based Vedanta Resources' (VED.L) proposed acquisition of a majority stake in Cairn India (CAIL.BO) may be scuppered by India's petroleum ministry, which wants state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.BO) to be given a chance to buy the holding, the Mint newspaper

o   GDF Suez very interested in German gas storage sites being offered by Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA.LN) - Le Figaro

o   Dual shareholder says RSA (RSA.LN) offer for parts of Aviva "needs to be 10% higher" - Telegraph

 

 

o  

 
 

 


o   US reviews export rules for BAE from Financial Times

§  The US state department will formulate a company specific “policy” to address export licence approvals for BAE Systems and its subsidiaries following an analysis of the UK defence group’s guilty plea to criminal charges in March and discussions with BAE representatives

o   WLK Westlake Chemical raises dividend 10%

TECH/MEDIA/TELECOM

 
 

 

 


o   Acer Inc: Aims to become China's 2nd largest notebook maker, outpacing Asustek, HP, and Dell -  TTN

o   AMZN Kindle Outselling iBooks 60 To One – Allthingsdigital

§  http://voices.allthingsd.com/20100823/kindle-outselling-ibooks-60-to-one/?mod=ATD_rss

o   Smartphones: The seemingly recession-proof smart phone is suffering from a side effect of the rough economy: Manufacturers simply can't build enough of the gadgets because chip-makers that rolled back production last year are now scrambling to play catch-up- AP http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TEC_CHIP_SHORTAGES?SITE=OKOKL&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

o   AAPL: Digg founder says Apple iTV launch in September will 'change everything'- appleInsider

o   AAPL: Apple's iPhone displays 55% of smartphone ads- AppleInsider

o   MOT, AAPL Motorola most likely iPad rival- CNET

o   Acer, AAPL: Acer chairman expects iPad market share to drop to 20%, says paper- digitimes

o   AAPL, facebook: Facebook for iPhone boasts of over 100 million monthly users- IntoMobile

o   LG To Launch 10 More Smart Phones; To Launch Android Tablet- barron’s

o   Samsung expands lead in 2Q10 DRAM market,- iSuppli

o   NAND: A stronger price drop took place at the NAND flash spot market this week (August 16-20) amid inventory clearance among memory module houses- inSpectrum

o   Smart Grids: Earth2Tech breaks down the public/private debate

§  http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/earth2tech/~3/fXsi-zYFBKQ/

o   Virgin Mobile USA fortells unlimited prepaid mobile broadband for $40 a month- Engadget

o   BBY: Best Buy 'making tablets a focus' this holiday season, might stock one from Rocketfish- Engadget

o   Apps: Mobile operators predict app sales boom- FT

o   3DTV: TV Makers Predict a Bright Future for 3-D Sets- NYT

§  http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=f254e065f28aad2cdc8d47e528be7435

o   TV: Plenty to Watch Online, but Viewers Prefer to Pay for Cable- NYT

§  http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=22cfbce4b7e84aefd70f9fcf74d0f41f

o   DVDs: Studios Seek DVD Alternatives- WSJ

§  http://www.google.com/reader/view/#stream/feed%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Fxml%2Frss%2F3_7455.xml

 

 

MATERIALS

 
 

 


o   Miners leads Monday on spec mining tax in Australia may be scrapped post election..BBG

o   China, the world’s largest maker and user of aluminum, exported more of the metal than it imported for a second month in July as a surge in production added to an oversupply in the country.  BBG

o   Tuckey successor says scrap mine tax from Business Spectator

§  MP Tony Crook says prepared to negotiate with both parties

o   Tokyo Steel plans Sept across-the-board price rise from Business Spectator

§  Japan's biggest construction steelmaker cites rebound in steel scrap costs

o   Rio Tinto Strives to Repair Its China Ties from DealBook

§  Rio Tinto rebuffed a deal with Chinalco, and China arrested Rio workers on charges of taking bribes. But both sides are warily making amends.

o   Sinochem, Vale eye Potash: report from Business Spectator

§  BHP may have rivals in takeover bid for fertilizer giant.

o   Resource demand spurs M&A deal surge from FT.com

§  The rise of China and India has sparked a renewed surge in aggressive dealmaking in the resources sector, with more than $50bn in proposed take­overs this week alone

o   APD, APD Even without Airgas, shares of Air Products should appreciate nicely, says Barron's

o   POT Stories

o   POTASHCORP STILL REJECTS BHP OFFER, BEEN APPROACHED BY OTHERS – press release

§  POTASHCORP IN TALKS WITH SEVERAL THIRD PARTIES ON ALTERNATIVES   

o   POT Potash Corp. Said to Get Sinochem, Vale’s Inquiries- BBG

§  Sinochem and Vale made initial inquiries with Potash Corp.’s board of directors late last week about the possibility of holding talks

§  Other companies also contacted the board of the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, and talks may not materialize

§  http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a57QuuUdBH.Y

o   POT Potash Corp workers ask for hearings on BHP deal- Reuters

§  BHP Billiton must show that its planned acquisition of Potash Corp (POT.TO) will have clear benefits for Canada before the federal government approves any deal

§  The United Steelworkers are asking the government to hold public hearings before blessing any deal that would see the world's biggest mining company take over the world's biggest fertilizer producer

§  http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2015972020100820

o   BHP Billiton faces tough sell on POT Potash- Australian

§  Some of the leading investors in the Anglo-Australian mining group are worried that it will be drawn into an expensive bidding war for the company, whose shares have surged past BHP's rejected $US130-a-share offer.

§  Banking sources close to Potash said last night that at least two Chinese companies were on a list of potential white knight bidders that Potash may turn to if BHP's bid gains momentum

§  http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/bhp-billiton-faces-tough-sell-on-potash/story-e6frg9df-1225908675240

o   WSJ discusses BHP’s plans for POT Potash

§  To a large degree, BHP is buying an option on potash pricing, helped by cheap debt. It has $45 billion of financing lined up at an average cost of about 2.5%. If you don't believe in deflation, then selling cheap debt and using the proceeds to buy stocks can make sense—a leveraged buyout.

§  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703589804575445620646596534.html

o   Potash Could ‘Definitely’ Lure China, Neivert Says- BBG

§  Potash Corp., subject to a $40 billion takeover bid from BHP Billiton Ltd., could “definitely” be of interest to Chinese buyers, according to Charles Neivert, managing director of Dahlman Rose.

§  The bid price for the Canadian potash producer will have to go higher, and may exceed $150 a share he said

o   Barron’s discusses how much BHP will raise its offer

§  The Trader believes BHP Billiton could raise its offer for Potash to $163 thought at this price the deal wouldn't add to profits until 2014, according to Credit Suisse

§  BHP's $130 a-share cash bid offers Potash Corp. shareholders a 32% premium to average prices 30 days before the bid, but is well off the stock's (admittedly unrealistic) 2008 peak near 242.

§  With merger speculation rife, and vague hopes that the Chinese will scramble to snag a fertilizer source, the market quickly came to expect a sweetened offer of at least 150, and the stock jumped to 149.

§  http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204451004575433560241472100.html

o   Consortium Led By China's Hopu Studying Potash Bid – DJ

§  A consortium led by Chinese private-equity fund Hopu Investment Management Co. is studying the feasibility of a bid for Potash  Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., a person familiar with the situation said Monday.

§   The consortium is made up of investors from Canada, the U.S. and Asia, and includes at least two sovereign wealth funds, the knowledgeable person said. No decision has been finalized yet on whether to proceed with a bid for the Canadian fertilizer maker, the person said.

o   BHP in Canadian charm offensive- from Financial Times

§  BHP Billiton will launch its charm offensive in Canada this week, as the mining group seeks to convince Canadian regulators and PotashCorp shareholders of the value in its $39bn (£25.1bn) bid to take over the fertiliser producer

§  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/25ea1750-ae2b-11df-bb55-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

o   BHP Billiton urged to pull Potash Corp out of Western Sahara

§  Activist group wants BHP to halt the export of phosphates from disputed region if it takes control of Potash Corp

§  http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/bhp-billiton-potash-corp-western-sahara

o   miner Rio Tinto believes quarterly iron ore pricing is still a "relatively more satisfactory and well accepted" system, its chief executive Tom Albanese was quoted by a Chinese paper as saying

§  International spot prices for the steel-making ingredient have collapsed below quarterly rates since April, prompting fears among global miners that their Chinese customers could renege on contracts.

§  In an interview with 21st Century Business Herald published on Sunday, Mr Albanese said Rio was happy that so far his firm had not encountered such breaches of contracts

o   Lihir shareholders back NCM bid from Business Spectator

§  Early count shows support for $10bn tie-up.

 

o  

FINANCIALS

 
 

 


o   Regulators Close Troubled Community Lender ShoreBank

§  The decision to sell to management is a rare move by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which generally bars investors who own more than 10% of the failed bank from bidding on its assets. The FDIC also typically wants to know if bidders have "ever been an officer or director of a failed institution" and "participated in a material way in one or more transactions that caused a substantial loss to any such failed institution," according to an FDIC document

§   The structure of the deal "is unusual," said Atlanta banking attorney Chip MacDonald. But it "may have resulted in FDIC getting a better price and lower cost resolution" if "the management team was not responsible for the failed bank's problems," he said.  WSJ

o   Aside from ShoreBank, regulators on Friday closed four small banks in California, two in Florida and one in Virginia. WSJ

o   Threat of Wall Street Job Cuts Looms – WSJ link

§  The weak economy, volatile markets, regulatory upheaval and changes in how traders are paid are starting to trigger job cuts on Wall Street that could reverse a recent rebound in employment levels

o   Derivatives fight:  Fighting Flares on New Rules For Street – WSJ

§  Banks, companies and trade associations challenged federal regulators Friday over the controversial question of how to regulate derivatives under the new Dodd-Frank financial revamp, the first big day of posturing since the law was enacted last month.

§  The meetings, particularly a three-hour roundtable hosted jointly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, illustrate how Wall Street's attention has shifted from Congress

§  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703579804575441750105850046.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fxml%2Frss%2F3_7011+%28WSJ.com%3A+What%27s+News+US%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

o   Credit-Card Rates Climb  – WSJ link

§  Borrowing rates for a large portion of U.S. credit-card accounts have been rising and are likely to climb further in the near future.

o   BAC:  Ex-BofA CEO Lewis Calls Merrill Lawsuit 'Implausible' – CNBC

§  Lawyers for former Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis said in a court filing that a lawsuit accusing him of misleading investors during the company's 2009 merger with Merrill Lynch was "implausible" and "inconsistent," and should be tossed out.

§  The filing was a response to a civil lawsuit submitted by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in February which accused Lewis and Bank of America of failing to properly disclose losses and bonuses at Merrill before the deal closed.

§  http://www.cnbc.com/id/38801150

o   AIG:   Reuters) - American International Group's aircraft leasing unit ILFC repaid nearly $4 billion of U.S. loans after raising new debt from investors

o   GS:  Goldman Hurt by SEC Suit? Not Based on This Week’s Work- WSJ

§  This week was the busiest of year for M&A, according to Dealogic. Goldman was listed as an adviser on five deals valued at $60.1 billion.  The bank scored a role advising Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan as it fends of a hostile offer from BHP Billiton. Goldman was the sole adviser to Intel on its announced purchase of McAfee for $7.7 billion. It also advised Indian miner Vedanta on its $9.5 billion bid for a 40% stake in oil explorer Cairn’s Indian business.

§  So not only did Goldman rank No.1 in this week’s league tables, but it remained in its usual position in the global and U.S. rankings: No. 1.

§  http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/08/20/goldman-hurt-by-sec-suit-not-based-on-this-weeks-work/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fdeals%2Ffeed+%28WSJ.com%3A+Deal+Journal+-+WSJ.com%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

o   Bonuses furore hits banking chiefs’ pay from FT.com

§  The average pay of top bankers in the US and Europe fell by nearly 60 per cent in 2009 amid a furore over bonuses, according to data compiled for the Financial Times

o   UBS embarks on rebranding drive from FT.com

§  UBS, one of the banks hardest hit by the credit crisis, on Sunday sought to put the past behind it with the start of a worldwide advertising campaign

o   MF Global to enter money management from Financial Times

§  MF Global Holdings is to make a push into money management and investment banking, in an effort to capitalise on the derivatives brokerage’s strength in commodities markets

o   Investment Bank Shares Jump from TheStreet.com

§  The wave of deals is driving up shares of small advisory firms

o   Barclays Customers Unable To Access Cash After Computer Glitch

§  dow Jones)--U.K. bank Barclays PLC (BARC.LN)--which earlier this
month outsourced its ATM, or automated teller machine, services to NCR Corp
(NCR)--confirmed Sunday that customers were unable to access their bank
accounts and withdraw money on Saturday after cash machines went down.

o   china Construction Bank Corp. (0939.HK), the nation's second-largest lender by assets, Sunday reported a 27% increase in first half net profit, helped by a surge in fee-based businesses and lower impairment charges due to slower credit growth and improved global financial markets

o   State-run CCB, in which Bank of America Corp. (BAC) owns a stake of around 10%, said its net profit for the six months ended June 30 was 70.74 billion yuan ($10.41 billion), up from CNY55.81 billion a year earlier.   The result, which met analysts forecast, was buoyed by higher rev

o   Morgan Stanley's Direct Private-Equity Arm Stays Put - WSJ

§  Morgan Stanley Private Equity will stay within its Wall Street parent for
now

§  Morgan Stanley (MS) will continue to honor its capital commitment to the arm's most recent fund, Morgan Stanley Capital Partners V LP, which had a final closing late last year on a little more than $1 billion

§   Nearly one-third of the commitment to the fund came from the parent and its
employees, with the remainder from outside investors.

o   HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC, HSBA.LN) has emerged as the frontrunner to buy a controlling stake in Nedbank Group Ltd. (NED.JO), South Africa's fourth-largest bank, in a deal that could be announced as early as Monday, the Financial Times

o   BEN, BK, DPS Profile: Robert Levy, a sub advisor for the MassMutual Select Focused Value Fund likes shares of Franklin Resources as well as Bank of New York Mellon while selling shares of Dr. Pepper Snapple in July. – Barron’s

o   Barron's feature examines the executive compensation aspect of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act

o   PACW Pacific Western Bank purchases Los Padres Bank in FDIC-assisted transaction

o   WABC Westamerica Bank acquires Sonoma Valley Bank assets, liabilities from FDIC

o   OCN Ocwen Financial CFO David Gunter to retire, effective 27-Aug

o   AMPL Gadot Chemical Tankers and Terminals completes purchase of ADPO Ghent for €30M

o   Second tranche of Anglo Irish Bank loans transfers to NAMA for 61% discount - Irish Independent

 

o  

CONSUMER

 
 

 


o   Coffee hits new 12 yr highs Monday

o   SAFM Sanderson Farms reports a miss…

o   LOW Lowe's upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs

o   back-to-school :   Schooling shoppers – link from NY Post

§  This back-to-school season may teach consumers and retailers a cruel lesson. Wallet-conscious parents are holding out for the steep Labor Day weekend markdowns on everything from three-ring binders to ring-spun denim. Meanwhile, retailers have kept inventories so lean that experts say eye-popping deals and consumer choices will be in shorter...

o   Hedge Fund Corners the Cocoa Market from zero hedge

§  London based Anthony Ward’s Amajaro hedge fund built up a billion dollar long position in the cocoa futures market which traders expected him to unwind going into expiration

§  The move triggered some extreme volatility in the markets. The difficulties of transporting and storing this quantity of a perishable commodity boggle the mind. Ward, a long time successful cocoa trader, is clearly taking advantage of a poor crop this year in the Ivory Coast, a major producer, betting on a price rise. The move was so unexpected that traders and big consumers, like Cadbury and Nestle, have been caught short. Although these giants hedge their requirements years in advance in the futures markets, no one expected this amount of product to be taken off the market so quickly

o   BKS  (Reuters) - The war that has erupted between Barnes & Noble (BKS) two largest shareholders over control of the bookseller is putting a wrench in its plans to sell itself and could make the retailer less appealing.

§  The company is expected to report a quarterly loss on Tuesday, and the extent of the damage is likely to affect who shareholders vote for at next month's annual meeting.

o   U.S. restaurants starved for business from L.A. Times

§  The number of restaurants operating nationwide dropped this year for the first time in more than a decade, a survey shows, with California accounting for almost a third of the losses

§  With consumers and businesses keeping a lid on expenses, more and more small and mid-size restaurants are throwing in their dish towels and closing up shop.

o   SABMiller, Asahi Eye Foster's Beer; No Formal Bid Yet from CNBC

§  Foster’s (FGL.AU) jumped 8% on reports that SABMiller (SAB.LN) may offer £7B for the group’s beer arm.

o   CPB Campbell Soup thought to be planning £1.5B bid for United Biscuits's biscuit-making arm - Guardian

o   Swatch  Reuters) - Swatch Group, the world's largest watchmaker, is aiming for another record year in 2011 as new products come on to the market in the coming months, the group's new chairwoman was quoted as saying on Sunday.

o   Death reports of the for-profit education group may be early, says the WSJ 

o   KO, MCD, SJM Streetwise comments about recent takeover speculation and says while it is not a key reason to buy the market, the M&A theme is a net positive until it gets more out of hand. Traditional growth stocks with multi-generational brands such as Coca-Cola, McDonald's , and JM Smucker are noted to have performed well in sideways markets. – Barron’s

o   UTI Universal Technical holder Pivot Point reduces stake to 4.0% from 6.2% in amended 13D

o   MKC McCormick adopts 10b5-1 stock repurchase plan

o   JMBA Jamba has refranchised 102 stores to date, for which it incurred aggregate impairment charges of $5.5M

o   DIRECTV (DTV), McDonald's (MCD) mentioned as new buys in Louis Navellier's Blue Chip Growth September newsletter

o   Retail for Sale: Time for Private Equity to Shop – CNBC

§  Three names to watch are: American Eagle Outfitters,  BJ's Wholesale and La-Z-Boy,

§  http://www.cnbc.com/id/38787249

o   Cocoa prices likely to rise - WSJ

§  Problems in Ivory Coast's Cocoa Industry Likely to Drive Up Prices

§  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704504204575445262030750490.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_4

 

HEALTHCARE

 
 

 


o   JAZZ dn 40% after hrs… Jazz Pharmaceuticals will hold conference call regarding the FDA panel vote on JZP-6 (rekinla) for fibromyalgia; the call will take place at 0830ET on Monday, 23-Aug. dial in 866.713.8566 in the U.S. or 617.597.5325 outside the U.S. and entering 35059911

o   AMRI Albany Molecular received a FDA warning letter regarding Burlington, MA manufacturing facility

o   GPRO Gen Probe announces that Prodesse's ProFAST+ assay receives its CE (Conformité Européenne) Mark

o   DEPO Depomed provides update on Glumzeta 500mg supply disruption -- 8K

o   OSUR OraSure Technologies files $150M mixed shelf

o   EPCT EpiCept receives refusal to file letter from FDA on NDA for Ceplene (histamine dihydrochloride)

o   WCRX up 2%  ,  Warner Chilcott said it reached an agreement to amend its credit facilities in order to add another $1.5 billion in new term loans, which will help pay for a previously announced special dividend. But the maker of branded prescription women's health-care and dermatology products also reduced its full-year earnings outlook as a result. Shares rose 2.2% to $28.75 after hours.

o   CPIX dn 9%...Cumberland Pharmaceuticals said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has extended its review of its drug Acetadote in patients with non-acetaminophen acute liver failure. Shares sank 8.6% to $5.50 in after-hours trading.

o   AstraZeneca had internal debate on drug data from FT.com

o   Documents made public during litigation on the pharmaceutical group’s antipsychotic drug Seroquel highlight apparent efforts by the group to communicate favourable data selectively to boost prescriptions

o   ENCO Encorium Group files amended S-1; to distributed up to 3.4M rights at $1.75/share

o   The subscription rights will expire if not exercised by 17:00 ET on 30-Sep, though may be extended for additional periods ending no later than 15-Oct.

 

UTILITIES

 
 

 


o   Commodities Corner discusses the lack of impact the high demand for electricity and the low growth in stockpiles has had on natural gas prices. – Barron’s

TRANSPORTS

 
 

 

 


o   Expeditors   Reuters) - Expeditors International of Washington Inc said it, along with its Brazilian unit, received an administrative proceeding from the Brazilian Ministry of Justice, alleging the logistics firm infringed anti-competition laws.

o   Virgin Atlantic Fight Looms from WSJ.com

o   Virgin Atlantic's pilots union urged the airline to avoid a confrontation amid what the union described as "last-ditch" talks to settle a dispute over time off

o   Mexicana de Aviacion airline   consortium of Mexican investors have acquired 95% of Mexicana de Aviacion airline, which earlier this month filed for bankruptcy protection, the investors group said Saturday.  The Tenedora K group was formed "to capitalize" and "save" Nuevo Grupo Aeronautico, the holding company that controls Mexicana de Aviacion and two domestic airlines, Mexicana Click and Mexicana Link, it said in a statement.  AFP

GAMING, LODGING, & LEISURE

 
 

 

 


o   WYNN Wynn Resorts' Macau subsidiary reports 2H results--8K

 

AUTOS

 
 

 

 


o   Cult carmaker Morgan defies the gloom from FT.com

o   Morgan Motor Company, the centenarian British car manufacturer, has defied the difficulties of the global automobile industry with record sales of its cult sporty convertibles

o   General Motors   Barron's cover story says the General Motors IPO could value the car maker at $60B  

o   General MotorsBond Prices Suggest GM Stock May Be Overvalued (Dow Jones)

o     Investors thinking about getting in on General Motors' initial public offering may want to check the bond market before buying.   Although the company hasn't specified the price or size of the offering, GM's (GM) IPO is expected to raise about $16 billion, making it the second-largest in U.S. history. It's not clear how the offering will value the auto giant, but there are already clues in the bond market.   There are billions of dollars of bonds left over from GM's previous incarnation. Motors Liquidation Co., the surviving entity, listed $32.2 billion of liabilities at the end of June, including more than $28 billion of unsecured bond debt.

o     This debt still trades a lot. The bellwether issue is a bond that GM sold in 2003. It matures in 2033 and initially yielded 8.375%. This bond is currently trading at about 34 cents on the dollar.   Owners of GM's old bonds will get 10% of the new equity, plus warrants to buy another 15%. Factoring in things like dilution, bond holders will probably end up with about 20% of the new equity in GM after the IPO, according to Shelly Lombard, an analyst at independent fixed-income research firm Gimme Credit

o    The price of GM's 2033 8.375% bonds suggests investors are willing to pay 34 cents on the dollar, or about $10 billion, for taking on liabilities of more than $32 billion--knowing that they could end up owning about 20% of the new company.

o   GM considered, rejected HK listing: sources from Business Spectator

o   Hong Kong ruled out as it would have delayed listing. 21 Aug 2010 11:26 AM

o   Ford may lose some investors to GM IPO, Bill Ford says from Automotive News

o   Ford Motor Co. Executive Chairman Bill Ford said some investors may reduce their holdings in his company to buy shares in General Motors Co.'s initial public offering and spread their risk across the automobile industry.

o   Dealers: We want more cars! from Automotive News

o   Dealer H. Carter Myers III lost a motivated buyer of a GMC Terrain crossover last week because there were no Terrains on his lot.

o   Hyundai, Kia go upscale, add segments and pizazz from Automotive News

o   Hyundai and Kia are trying to hold on to their U.S. sales momentum by entering new segments, moving the brands upscale and bringing out vehicles with more eye-catching design.

o   Indian utility vehicles maker Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHM.BO) said it had signed a memorandum of understanding to buy a majority stake in troubled South Korean automaker Ssangyong

o   Ssangyong Motor (003620.KS) jumped 7% when Mahindra & Mahindra (MM.IN) signed a memorandum of understanding to buy a majority of the company

o   BWA: BorgWarner May Make Acquisitions, Resume Dividends (Bloomberg) -- BorgWarner Inc., the maker of automatic-transmission parts, would consider acquisitions in Asia and may resume dividend payments in November.

 

 
 

 

 


o   The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 4.42% the week ended Aug. 19, Freddie Mac said -- a fifth consecutive new record low. Ultracheap loans caused the Mortgage Bankers Association Refinancing Index to jump 17% to its highest level in 15 months as homeowners sprang into action.

o   BXP Boston Properties signs agreement with Harry Macklowe affiliate to acquire 510 Madison Avenue in NYC

o   WSJ: Price For 510 Madison Ave Among Highest Since Downturn Began

o   Auction of HSBC Unit Will Serve as Barometer of Mortgage Market from American Banker

o   As part of its disposal of U.S. consumer banking businesses, HSBC Holdings is shopping HSBC Mortgage around. As with many yard sale offerings, the property's attractiveness is ...

o   Stripped of Preemption, Banks Expected to Roll Up Mortgage Units from American Banker

o   It took just one sentence in the 2,300-page financial reform law to end federal preemption for mortgage lenders that operate as subsidiaries of national banks.

 

o   Hedge Fund Heavyweight Paulson Makes New Housing Bet - cnbc

§  will be throwing his hat into the race to acquire residential land—and dirt cheap.

§  Paulson, who manages the $31 billion Paulson & Co. fund, has made a "stalking horse" bid of $42.4 million to acquire the assets of Engle Homes, which includes land and lots in Arizona targeted for more than 8,000 homes, and nine completed residences.

§  http://www.cnbc.com//id/38789781

o   Blackstone invests in Chinese housing market from FT.com

o   Blackstone, the US private equity group, has agreed a deal with one of Hong Kong’s largest property developers to build luxury apartments in the country

o   Does Feddie Have a Future? from Barron's

o   Federal meddling in the home-mortgage market never ends.

o   The Fannie and Freddie effect is here long term from Financial Times

o   Nobody in Washington seems to know what to do with Fannie and Freddie. But act they must.

o   Nearly 50% leave Obama mortgage relief program from Wash Post

o   Nearly half of the homeowners who enrolled in the Obama administration's flagship mortgage-relief program have fallen out

o   Lloyd Blankfein, chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
(GS), has sold his co-op apartment on Manhattan's Park Avenue for about $12
million, the New York Times reports Friday.

o     Full story at
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/realestate/22deal1.html?_r=3&partner=rss&emc=rss

o   commercial property sector: The yoke of the credit choke from Business Spectator

o   Businesses' lack of access to credit was ignored as an issue during the election, but it could have dire consequences for the commercial property sector

o   Mortgage Fraud Is on the Rise Again from WSJ.com

o   Mortgage fraud, which helped inflate the housing bubble and left banks and government housing agencies with an avalanche of bad debt, is up again. The crime rose last year after declining for two years from its 2006 peak.

o   Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth from DealBook

o   Many economists now believe that the days of banking on an asset that could only rise in value are gone for good.

o   Good-Bye McMansion, Hello Tiny House?  WSJ link

o   How big is your ideal home? Somewhere between 1,400 and 2,600 square feet was the answer given by more than half of those who responded to a recent survey.

o   Mortgage Delinquency Runs Slightly Higher in Dems' Districts  WSJ link

o   FNM, FRE….In Praise (!) of Barney Frank –

o   By: Larry Kudlow, CNBC Anchor

o   For years, Frank was a staunch supporter of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant government housing agencies that played such an enormous role in the financial meltdown that thrust the economy into the Great Recession.

o   But in a recent CNBC interview, Frank told me that he was ready to say goodbye to Fannie and Freddie.

o   “I hope by next year we’ll have abolished Fannie and Freddie,” he said

o   http://www.cnbc.com/id/38791383

o   Bovis shares dip after its caution on the housing market guardian.co.

o   Bovis Homes Group posts H1 EPS £0.02 vs Reuters £0.02

o   Intends to resume declaring dividends at end of current financial year.

o   In last few weeks of the half year, after UK General Election and the Budget, the market became more fragile.

o    

 

 
 

 

 


o   Energy

o   Petrofac +1.8%.  1H profit numbers better please.

o   Dana Pete +0.2%.  Looking for increased bid from KNOC (FT)

o   Mining

o   Australian election hung parliament raises hopes of scrapping of Resource Tax.

o   UK miners + 1 ½--2%.

o   BHP + 1.9%.  SinoChem watching Potash bid.. Bernstein says sees no counter.

o    

o   AIR FRANCE-KLM to decide on future of Martinair – S&P

o   CASINO signs EUR 1.2bn revolving credit line – S&P

o   GDF SUEZ interest in Exxon, SHELL's German gas assets  – S&P

o   GDF SUEZ: Offer for Energa rejected – S&P

o   MEDIASET: Endemol expects to comply with debt covenants   – S&P

o   HEIJMANS 1H op profit ahead of forecasts  – S&P

o   GETINGE: Warning letter from FDA over Wayne plant – S&P

o   HSBC in talks to acquire Nedbank from OLD MUTUAL  – S&P

o   Oridion posts interim net income of US$3.15m  – S&P

o   SCHAFFNER ups guidance

o   SWATCH GROUP aims for another record year – Reuters

o   AMLIN: 1H PTP falls 39.3%

o   BAE SYSTEMS: US reviews rules on export licences – S&P 

o   BOVIS HOMES: 1H numbers miss estimates

o   DANA looks to persuade KNOC to raise offer - FT

o   HISCOX: Disaster losses hit 1H profits  – S&P

o   PETROFAC sees FY LFL profit growth at around 20%  – S&P

o   SABMILLER mulls bid for Foster's beer operations  – S&P

 

 
 

 

 

 


o   Japan

       NKY-0.68%, TPX -0.58%

       NKY fell as worry lingered about the pace of economic recovery and the impact of the strong yen. Report that PM Kan and BoJ government Shirakawa talked on the phone instead of meeting in person also led the market to think Japan may not take action against a strong yen. Turnover on the TPX fell to 1.04 trillion yen from 1.12 trillion yen last Friday

       Stocks fell across most sectors led by tech, materials, industrials, telecom and consumer. Oil & gas and utilities rose

       Exporters fell on a strong yen: autos -0.77%, CE -1.24%, precision -1.60%.

       Traders -0.66% after metal prices fell

       Best performing sectors on the TPX: oil & coal +0.80%, fishery, agriculture & forestry +0.54%, electric power & gas +0.42%; worst performing sectors: textiles & apparels -1.67%, precision -1.60%, pulp & paper -1.42%

       Flow: buying brokers, selling telco, autos and banks

o   Hong Kong

       HSI -0.44%; HSCEI -0.93%

       Stocks fell, tracking the regional market as concerns on the strength of global economic recovery weighed on stocks. Turnover on the HSI fell to HK $18.64B from HK$20.96B last Friday

o   China

       SHCOMP -0.11%; SZCOMP +0.39%

       Stocks close down after fluctuating in a narrow range as investors took profits. Turnover on the SHCOMP fell to 116.03B yuan from 118.67B yuan last Friday

       Stocks were mixed. Consumer, industrials, health care and tech rose while telecom, oil & gas, materials, financials and utilities fell

       Real estate -0.72%. Vanke’s chairman Wang Shi said home prices in China’s largest cities may fall 10% - 15%

 

Other stories: 

 

 

o   Changes in the latest Investor's Business Daily 100 List: Added: ARMH, CISG, PNRA, NNI, LXK, INTU, ANV, LVS. Deleted: ALK, KRA, ASPS, DGIT, BCPC, ALGN, SINA, CRM.

 

o   Barron's summary 

§  BEN, BK, DPS Profile: Robert Levy, a sub advisor for the MassMutual Select Focused Value Fund likes shares of Franklin Resources as well as Bank of New York Mellon  while selling shares of Dr. Pepper Snapple  in July.

§  DCS Up and Down Wall Street: Randall Forsyth believes the talk of a bubble in Treasuries is all hype and says the Claymore Dividend & Income Fund (DCS) could be worth a look by investors.

§  KO, MCD, SJM Streetwise comments about recent takeover speculation and says while it is not a key reason to buy the market, the M&A theme is a net positive until it gets more out of hand. Traditional growth stocks with multi-generational brands such as Coca-Cola, McDonald's , and JM Smucker are noted to have performed well in sideways markets.

§  MFE, INTC Technology Trader though not a 100% believer in the McAfee deal, is still a believer in Intel. Moving anti-virus from software into the processor could take a year or two. Shorter term concerns about the Sept. quarter for Intelare also noted.

§  AAPL, GOOG, NOK, MOT, RIMM Plugged In says the smartphone segment shows no signs of getting caught in a dip in the economic recovery. Bill Whyman of ISI Group is noted to have recently raised his 2010 projection of unit growth sales by 3% with foreign exchange playing a large part in the price of devices. Apple, Google, Nokia, Motorola and Research In Motion are all mentioned.

§  Economic Beat believes spending by consumers and businesses isn't falling.

§  BHP, POT The Trader believes BHP Billiton could raise its offer for Potash to $163 thought at this price the deal wouldn't add to profits until 2014, according to Credit Suisse. Taking profit the closer Potash (POT) shares trade to $160 is recommended. Retail stocks are still not seen as a bargain even with the group trading lower since April. Margin pressure in the 2H from competition and the increased cost of goods from China is noted.

§  Asia Trader suggests looking at Taiwan's financial sector and First Financial Holding Company.

§  European Trader says even without a strong rebound in the US and Europe, Akzo Nobel has a bright outlook.

§  The Striking Price notes risk in emerging markets is being priced like that in the US.

§  Current Yield sees safety with higher yields than Treasuries in emerging markets.

§  Commodities Corner discusses the lack of impact the high demand for electricity and the low growth in stockpiles has had on natural gas prices.

§  Barron's feature examines the executive compensation aspect of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act 

§  APD, APD Even without Airgas, shares of Air Products should appreciate nicely, says Barron's

§  HP Barron's feature says Helmerich & Payne will continue to benefit from a move to new high performance drilling rigs

§  Barron's portfolio manager interview: Putnam Investment's Jeff Knight 

§  Barron's cover story says the General Motors IPO could value the car maker at $60B  

 

 

INVESTMENT BANKING

 

 
 


INVESTMENT BANKING WRAP

 

M&A

 

 

o   POT Stories

o   POTASHCORP STILL REJECTS BHP OFFER, BEEN APPROACHED BY OTHERS – press release

§  POTASHCORP IN TALKS WITH SEVERAL THIRD PARTIES ON ALTERNATIVES   

o   POT Potash Corp. Said to Get Sinochem, Vale’s Inquiries- BBG

§  Sinochem and Vale made initial inquiries with Potash Corp.’s board of directors late last week about the possibility of holding talks

§  Other companies also contacted the board of the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, and talks may not materialize

§  http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a57QuuUdBH.Y

o   POT Potash Corp workers ask for hearings on BHP deal- Reuters

§  BHP Billiton must show that its planned acquisition of Potash Corp (POT.TO) will have clear benefits for Canada before the federal government approves any deal

§  The United Steelworkers are asking the government to hold public hearings before blessing any deal that would see the world's biggest mining company take over the world's biggest fertilizer producer

§  http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2015972020100820

o   BHP Billiton faces tough sell on POT Potash- Australian

§  Some of the leading investors in the Anglo-Australian mining group are worried that it will be drawn into an expensive bidding war for the company, whose shares have surged past BHP's rejected $US130-a-share offer.

§  Banking sources close to Potash said last night that at least two Chinese companies were on a list of potential white knight bidders that Potash may turn to if BHP's bid gains momentum

§  http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/bhp-billiton-faces-tough-sell-on-potash/story-e6frg9df-1225908675240

o   WSJ discusses BHP’s plans for POT Potash

§  To a large degree, BHP is buying an option on potash pricing, helped by cheap debt. It has $45 billion of financing lined up at an average cost of about 2.5%. If you don't believe in deflation, then selling cheap debt and using the proceeds to buy stocks can make sense—a leveraged buyout.

§  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703589804575445620646596534.html

o   Potash Could ‘Definitely’ Lure China, Neivert Says- BBG

§  Potash Corp., subject to a $40 billion takeover bid from BHP Billiton Ltd., could “definitely” be of interest to Chinese buyers, according to Charles Neivert, managing director of Dahlman Rose.

§  The bid price for the Canadian potash producer will have to go higher, and may exceed $150 a share he said

o   Barron’s discusses how much BHP will raise its offer

§  The Trader believes BHP Billiton could raise its offer for Potash to $163 thought at this price the deal wouldn't add to profits until 2014, according to Credit Suisse

§  BHP's $130 a-share cash bid offers Potash Corp. shareholders a 32% premium to average prices 30 days before the bid, but is well off the stock's (admittedly unrealistic) 2008 peak near 242.

§  With merger speculation rife, and vague hopes that the Chinese will scramble to snag a fertilizer source, the market quickly came to expect a sweetened offer of at least 150, and the stock jumped to 149.

§  http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204451004575433560241472100.html

o   Consortium Led By China's Hopu Studying Potash Bid – DJ

§  A consortium led by Chinese private-equity fund Hopu Investment Management Co. is studying the feasibility of a bid for Potash  Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., a person familiar with the situation said Monday.

§   The consortium is made up of investors from Canada, the U.S. and Asia, and includes at least two sovereign wealth funds, the knowledgeable person said. No decision has been finalized yet on whether to proceed with a bid for the Canadian fertilizer maker, the person said.

o   Nearly $85 billion of transactions have been announced since last Monday, the highest weekly sum since the week of Dec. 13, 2009, when Exxon Mobil Corp. announced its $40 billion acquisition of XTO Energy Inc., according to Dealogic

o   One factor may be the cash burning in their pockets. U.S. public companies carried $2.03 trillion in cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter, according to data from FactSet Research. That's about 57% above the level at the same tome in 2006.

o   Dealmakers seize the moment on mergers and acquisitions from Financial Times

o   Dealmakers are rushing to capitalise on a window of opportunity to launch transactions, after volatile financing markets for much of this year kept a lid on a sustainable recovery in mergers and acquisitions

o   Deal volumes, which looked sluggish at best at the half-year stage, are running almost 20 per cent ahead of 2009, after a strong showing in July and August

o   Merger mania predicted as cash-rich firms stalk takeover targets- guardian

o   ITV, Prudential, Sainsbury and AstraZeneca thought to be among many targets

o   Takeover fever is gripping global markets amid speculation that a mergers and acquisitions (M&A) boom is on the cards as cash-rich companies splash out on expansion.

o   Anglo-Australian mining group BHP Billiton led the charge last week with a £35bn bid for Potash Corp of Canada.

o   Analysts say British companies in the takeover frame include ITV, targeted by NBC; BG, the gas and exploration group, which is being stalked by oil majors such as Shell; insurance company Prudential, a possible target for a break-up bid by Aviva and Resolution; miner Xstrata, which is being eyed by Swiss commodities group Glencore; AstraZeneca, the drugs company, which could attract interest from GlaxoSmithKline or European rivals; and Sainsbury, where the Qataris have built up a minority stake.

o   http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/merger-mania-predicted

o   CNBC discusses possible retail names for sale

o   Wall Street Securities retail analyst Brian Sozzi thinks so. Three names to watch are: AEO American Eagle Outfitters,  BJ BJ's Wholesale and LZB La-Z-Boy, he says

o   "They have been beaten down a fair amount," Sozzi says, in an interview on CNBC. "These companies generate a significant amount of cash so it makes sense for private equity to at least take a look at this point in time."

o   http://www.cnbc.com/id/38787249

o   Suez eyes XOM Exxon/RDS Shell German gas assets- reuters

o   French energy group GDF Suez is interested in acquiring gas storage assets in Germany worth around 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) put up for sale by Exxon Mobil and Shell

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67K06X20100821

o   CPB Campbell Soup Company plans £1.5bn break-up of United Biscuits- guardian

o   Campbell has reportedly engaged Centerview Partners, a US boutique investment bank, to advise it on launching a break-up bid for United Biscuits

o   with analysts predicting a sale price of about £2bn. A stock market flotation has also been considered, but this appears unlikely following recent stock market volatility

o   http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/campbell-soup-united-biscuits-buyout

o   Barron’s discusses whether APD should raise ARG offer

o   if the bid –currently for $63.50 a share in cash -- fails, or if it goes through at a price below $70, the stock could climb by as much as 20% over the next year

o   anything over $70 would reduce earnings per share in 2011, putting pressure on Air Products stock.

o   http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203651904575437501490880646.html

o   BWA BorgWarner May Make Acquisitions, Resume Dividends- BBG

o   BorgWarner Inc., the maker of automatic-transmission parts, would consider acquisitions in Asia and may resume dividend payments in November

o   An acquisition, which could cost as much as $600 million, isn’t likely to happen this year and has a less than 50 percent chance of occurring in 2011

o   SABMiller, Asahi eye Foster's beer unit; no bids yet- Reuters

o   Beverage giants SABMiller and Asahi Breweries (2502.T) are looking at Foster's Group's beer operations, valued at more than $10 billion, but have not yet made any formal offers

o   Fund managers are divided over whether a suitor would emerge before Australia's largest brewer formally splits off the wine division in 2011 or wait, with complex debt and structural issues to be resolved

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE67M03020100823

o   Dana aims to convince KNOC to raise offer- FT

o   Dana Petroleum will this week make a final attempt to convince South Korea’s national oil group to raise its £1.87b takeover offer in return for the blessing of the board.

o   The North Sea and Egypt-focused oil explorer will use its interim results on Friday as a platform to stress its value

o   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf70fac2-ae13-11df-bb55-00144feabdc0.html\

o   Fujitsu ‘Very Actively’ Seeking Acquisitions, President Says- BBG

o    “Targets will be companies that have technologies that Fujitsu doesn’t have or that have customers that Fujitsu has never been able to reach so far,”

o   “We would like to get engaged very actively in M&A activities.”

o   Cairn deal may not get ministry nod- LiveMint

o   The deal has already been clouded by regulatory concerns raised by the petroleum ministry, tax implications and reservations expressed by Life Insurance Corp of India, which owns a 2.57% stake in Cairn, and analysts that the offer was unfair to shareholders.

o   http://www.livemint.com/2010/08/23002000/Cairn-deal-may-not-get-ministr.html?h=A1

o   Bank Failures from fri: 8 total

o   PACW Pacific Western Bank purchases Los Padres Bank in FDIC-assisted transaction

§  Los Padres Bank had $870M in assets, $534M in loans, and $771M in deposits

o   WABC Westamerica Bank acquires Sonoma Valley Bank assets, liabilities from FDIC

§  As of 30-Jun, Sonoma Valley Bank reported deposits totaling $256M and loans totaling $241M. Westamerica Bank assumed only the assets and liabilities of Sonoma Valley Bank

o   Butte Community Bank, Chico, CA, Pacific State Bank, Stockton, CA, ShoreBank, Chicago, IL, Imperial Savings and Loan Association, Martinsville, VA, Independent National Bank, Ocala, FL, Community National Bank at Bartow, Bartow, FL

o   http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/index.html

o   SJR Shaw family buys 1 mln shares of Shaw Communications- Reuters

o   Canadian cable and telecom company Shaw Communications Inc (SJRb.TO) (SJR.N) said the Shaw family and entities owned or controlled by them bought an additional 1 million class B non-voting shares of the company

o   DRBN Dress Barn plans to reorganize into holding company- Reuters

o   Once this is done, each of its Dress Barn, Maurices and Tween Brands (which operates under the Justice brand), would become units of Ascena Retail Group, which would replace the present company as the publicly held corporation, Dress Barn said

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE67J0IW20100820

o   Insurer RSA's offer for parts of Aviva 'needs to be 10pc higher'- Telegraph

o   Martin Brown, investment manager at Ignis Asset Management, said RSA's initial £5bn approach undervalued the Aviva business

o   "There's no reason for the deal to be dead other than for RSA to be unwilling to pay more, but RSA would not have to raise its offer by much for Aviva to be obliged to consider it.

o   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/insurance/7956638/Insurer-RSAs-offer-for-parts-of-Aviva-needs-to-be-10pc-higher.html

o   VIP VimpelCom Yields Surging on Sawiris Speculation- BBG

o   OAO VimpelCom bond yields hit a one- month high and may rise more should the Russian mobile-phone operator’s parent follow through on merger plans in Italy and Egypt

o   http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaI.8BRXCY4U

o   WSJ: Price For 510 Madison Ave Among Highest Since Downturn Began

o   Boston Properties said today that it has agreed to buy Harry Macklowe's embattled office tower at 510 Madison Avenue for about $280.5 million. The 350,000-square-foot property had been the subject of a bitter legal fight between Macklowe, SL Green and junior mezzanine lender O'Connor Capital Partners for several months

o   HSBC to buy up to 70% of Nedbank- Mail & Guardian 

o   HSBC will buy up to 70% of South Africa's Nedbank, in a potential $6,8-billion deal that would give Europe's largest lender a bigger presence in Africa's top economy and a gateway to the fast-growing continent.

o   HSBC is poised to win the auction for a controlling stake in Nedbank after fending off fierce competition from its UK-based rival Standard Chartered

o   http://www.mg.co.za/article/2010-08-23-hsbc-to-buy-up-70-of-nedbank

o   GDF Suez very interested in German gas storage sites being offered by Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA.LN) - Le Figaro

o   Cinda in talks to buy strategic stake in AIA- SCMP

o   China Cinda Asset Management Corp is leading a mainland consortium to buy into AIA, as the state asset manager aims to build itself into a financial services conglomerate

o   http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2c913216495213d5df646910cba0a0a0/

o   Germany to sell Commerzbank stake as soon as possible- reuters

o   "The faster we are out, the better," Schaeuble told the weekend edition of German newspaper Rheinische Post, adding the bank recently showed "a pleasing development

o   “We do not have the intention to stay Commerzbank owner for a long time", he said.

o   http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-50996120100822

o   GOOG Google officially Acquires Like.com- TechCrunch

o   It’s official. Google has acquired Like.com. In a post on Like.com’s homepage, the company’s CEO writes that the visual search engine has been bought by Google

o   http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/20/its-official-google-acquires-like-com/

o   Roche buys BioImagene for $100 mln, boosts diagnostics- Reuters

o   Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG is buying U.S-based BioImagene for some $100 million, making another bolt-on acquisition to cement its dominant position in tissue-based cancer diagnostics.

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67M0MG20100823

o   Takeover Bets Play Out in Terex, Akamai Technologies- WSJ

o   Traders picked up notable batches of bullish options on shares in heavy-machinery company Terex. The Connecticut-based company has been the subject of takeover rumors for months. It sold its mining business to Bucyrus International for $1.3 billion in December

o   Santander sets sights on Zachodni stake- FT

o   Santander is planning to step up its pursuit of a controlling stake in Poland’s fifth-largest bank. The Spanish group hopes to edge closer to a package deal that could see it acquire three overseas businesses from Allied Irish Banks

o   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50e5b868-ae0f-11df-bb55-00144feabdc0.html

o   Portuguese bank’s Execution deal stagnates- FT

o   Banco Espírito Santo has yet to follow through on its agreement to acquire a 50.1% stake in Execution Noble, raising questions over why the deal has taken more than six months to complete

o   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2c97f48a-ae05-11df-bb55-00144feabdc0.html

o   Arques says is in talks with various prospective buyers of gigaset- CNBC

o   Says negotiations with one prospective buyer are already in a very advanced stage

o   Says Siemens is prepared to constructively go along with this process, says Arques is having constructive talks to settle disputes with Siemens

o   Greeece's NBG to back Finansbank rights issue- reuters

o   Greece's National Bank (NBGr.AT) will back a rights issue by its Turkish unit Finansbank as Tier 2 capital is converted into core equity

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67H0ND20100818

o   Brazil banks could expand in Peru, Colombia – UBS- Reuters

o   Brazilian banks Itau Unibanco and Banco do Brasil, which have been looking to expand in Latin America, are likely to seek takeover targets in Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru or Chile, UBS analysts said in a report.

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2013886620100820

o   ENRC buys majority of Kolwezi, Congo assets- reuters

o   Kazakh mining group ENRC (ENRC.L) has agreed to pay $175 million for a majority stake in a company that has licences for copper assets in Congo, including a permit revoked from Canada's First Quantum Minerals

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67J1C120100820

o   First Quantum says ENRC Congo deal violates ruling- Reuters

o   First Quantum said that a tribunal at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris had issued an order the day before the ENRC announcement to prohibit Congo "from taking any action to transfer or allow the transfer of the Kolwezi tailings exploitation permit".

o   Mexican group buys stake in troubled airline- Reuters

o   Mexican consortium, aided by private equity firm Advent International, has stepped up to buy a controlling stake in troubled airline Mexicana after financial woes pushed the carrier to the brink of collapse

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2117802220100821

o   Bidders seek guarantees on Ireland's EBS- Sunday Tims

o   Private equity groups looking to take a majority stake in Ireland's EBS [EBSBS.UL] are to seek assurances from the Irish government that it will help bear any future exceptional losses at the building society

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67L03620100822

o   National Pension says bidding for Colonial Pipeline- reuters

o   South Korea's state-run National Pension Service is seeking to acquire a 23 percent stake in U.S. pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline from Chevron Corp (CVX.N), the world's No.5 pension fund said on Monday.

o   \ http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE67L01D20100822

o   Aussie's Prime shares jump on BIP Brookfield merger- Reuters

o   Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP.N) and Australia's Prime Infrastructure (PIH.AX) have agreed to merge to seek growth opportunities, the companies said, sending Prime shares up 20 percent.

o   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE67M00O20100823

 

 

 

$ RAISING

 

IPOs

o   Barron's cover story says the General Motors IPO could value the car maker at $60B  

 

PRICINGS

o   Initial Offerings

o   WSR Whitestone REIT 3.3m share IPO expected to priece 8/23 via Wunderlich and Ladenburg: Price Talk $14-16

o   SRGV SurgiVision Inc 3.6m share IPO expected to price 8/24 via Rodman: Price Talk $5

o   FULL Full Circle Capital Corp 2.8m share IPO expected to price 8/25 via Ladengburg: Price Talk $8-10

o   Secondary Offerings

o   Capitol Federal Financial Inc. (CFFN)--185 million shares expected to price via Sandler O'Neill & Partners.

 

o   ENCO Encorium Group files amended S-1; to distributed up to 3.4M rights at $1.75/share

o   The subscription rights will expire if not exercised by 17:00 ET on 30-Sep, though may be extended for additional periods ending no later than 15-Oct.

o   IPO Market Turning, Says Safeguard CEO

o   Peter Boni, CEO of Safeguard Scientifics, says the moribund IPO market may soon pick up steam, especially in the tech and life-sciences arenas

o   http://www.thestreet.com/video/10841187/ipo-market-turning-says-safeguard-ceo.html

o   Kuwait, Qatar funds raise AgBank IPO investment- Arabian business

o   Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), the country's sovereign wealth fund agreed to more than double its investment in Agricultural Bank of China's initial public offering to $1.9 billion

o   http://www.arabianbusiness.com/595470-kuwait-qatar-funds-raise-agbank-ipo-investment--paper

o   Hulu IPO may draw YHOO Yahoo!- NYPOST

o   Hulu, owned by three of the biggest US broadcast networks, is preparing a share sale as early as this year that may value the company at more than $2 billion

o   Yahoo!, owner of the second-most popular US Internet search engine, would consider acquiring a stake in Hulu to solidify itself as an entertainment destination and a "must-buy" for advertisers

o   http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/hulu_ipo_may_draw_yahoo_Ka63eWh6RsSslc5uvjzxwI?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=#ixzz0xQJMDafn

 

 
 

 

 

 


o   TODAY’S EVENTS

 

o   CONFERENCES

o   CFA Institute / ICMA: International Fixed Income and Derivatives Programme - Aug 21, 2010 - Aug 27, 2010

o   Commerzbank Life Sciences Forum

§  NTS: BASFY.PK, GRRMF.PK, MPSYY.PK, SBS.DE

o   EnerCom Incorporated Oil & Gas Conference - Aug 22, 2010 - Aug 26, 2010

§  10:25AM: CLB

§  11:15AM: DWSN 

§  11:40AM: VQ

§  12:05PM: WLL

§  12:30PM: XEC 

§  12:55PM: EXXI

§  1:45PM: HNR

§  3:30PM: GDP 

§  4:20PM: BEXP

§  5:35PM: PHX

§  6PM: ATLS

§  6:25PM: BBG

o   Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. Taiwan Corporate Day - Aug 23, 2010 - Aug 24, 2010

o   TODAY’S EVENTS

o   Shareholder Meetings

§  BLK, GASS, OSTE, NANX, HTM

o   ECONOMICS

o   0830 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

o   EARNINGS

o   Consumer/Retail/Education

·         TUES, SAFM

o   Financials

·         CISG

o   Healthcare

·         KNSY

o   Transports

·         GASS

o   Media

·         FMCN, CNYD

 

 

***All eco data from Bloomberg and DJ

 

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