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May 23, 2012 12:46 AM EDT
Updated: Aug 17, 2010 6:30 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,302.01 -1.14 -0.01%
S & P 1079.38 +0.13 +0.01%
NASDAQ 2181.87 +8.39 +0.39%
NYSE 6871.58 +10.54 +0.15%
Russell 2000 615.10 +5.61 +0.92%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.5626% -0.1089% -4.08%
FTSE 5328.27 +52.17 +0.99%
NIKKEI 225 9161.68 -34.99 -0.38%

 

Those returning from vacation last week pushed the market lower by 100 points at the open, reacting to last week’s slide of between 3% and 6%, depending on the index. Volume was actually rather robust at the open, but quickly evaporated in the afternoon. Yesterday’s action was little more than a technical bounce off of support. There was a little opening gap from late July at 1069 in the S & P. We opened and bounced off of this level, eventually pushing to a small gain in the index. The groups that were hardest hit last week led the recovery. The very defensive groups that performed better on a relative basis last week were a drag on the averages yesterday. That is nothing more than a classic technical bounce. Volume ended the day so light that it is nearly half of the old 50-day moving average pace of 1.5 billion shares. This week is one of the last opportunities before schools start, so the volume is still being impacted by vacation-level trading. Technically, we’re due for a little bounce, but the S & P will face supply starting at 1087. If we get to 1100, by some miracle, it would be an opportunity to short more aggressively. Needless to say, the bears are in control. The trend is down. We do expect to see lower lows in September and potentially into October. The big difference yesterday was that the Dollar was a little weaker, indicating a little less deflationary fear. However, the drop in bond yields suggests investors are still expecting further bad news on the economy. We’ll see if we get help from today’s news.


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click graph for larger image


  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,302 10,263 10,644 9,622 10,782 ADV 1889 1601
S & P 1079 1057 1121 1010 1130 DECL 1099 976
COMP 2182 2160 2277 2061 2309 TRIN 1.59 0.99
NDX 1822 1783 1899 1700 1920 UVOL 389,331k 999,129k
10-Yld 2.563 2.612 2.908 2.603 3.026 DVOL 367,114k 606,528k
RUT 615 602 670 587 672 TVOL 780,687k 1,627,627k