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May 23, 2012 12:38 AM EDT
Updated: Aug 16, 2010 6:31 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,303.15 -16.80 -0.16%
S & P 1079.25 -4.36 -0.40%
NASDAQ 2173.48 -16.79 -0.77%
NYSE 6861.04 -20.90 -0.30%
Russell 2000 609.49 -7.49 -1.21%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.6716% -0.0739% -2.69%
FTSE 5264.24 -11.20 -0.21%
NIKKEI 225 9196.67 -56.79 -0.62%

 

While last week contained a lot of disappointing economic news and a couple of negative forecasts on the economy from Cisco and JC Penney, the bearish tide still stems from the FOMC meeting. The fact that the Fed is not looking to increase the money supply has increased concerns over a deflationary spiral. We can see that fear played out in the drop of long-term yields and the sudden sharp rally in the Dollar Index. In a deflationary environment, cash is king. Investors are looking for preservation of capital, and a 2.6% yield on top of a government guarantee is seen as a good deal. A stronger dollar and deflationary fears are negative for equities in general, and more negative for commodity related stocks. The drop in Tech, Industrial, Financial, Basic Material, and Energy were the catalysts for the bears last week. The Dollar Index has seen a very sharp spike out of the two-month downtrend and is targeting its 10-week moving average at 84. That is also just about a 50% retracement. Technically, the summer rally trend was busted early in the week and the pressure was maintained throughout. Hardest hit has been the risk trade. While we should see some oversold bounces along the way, the trend is down and the target for a low is out in October. Therefore, rallies should be sold. The S & P does have some support between 1057 and 1069. Resistance is at 1100 and I would expect to see traders getting negative on anything over 1087. The bears are in control, even on light volume.


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  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,303 10,263 10,644 9,622 10,782 ADV 1373 749
S & P 1079 1088 1121 1010 1130 DECL 1651 1767
COMP 2173 2160 2277 2061 2309 TRIN 1.19 1.17
NDX 1819 1783 1899 1700 1920 UVOL 354,471k 419,103k
10-Yld 2.672 2.612 2.908 2.603 3.026 DVOL 505,663k 1,101,662k
RUT 609 602 670 587 672 TVOL 871,304k 1,605,049k