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May 23, 2012 12:18 AM EDT
Updated: Aug 12, 2010 6:59 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,378.83 -265.42 -2.49%
S & P 1089.47 -31.59 -2.82%
NASDAQ 2208.63 -68.54 -3.01%
NYSE 6902.71 -237.04 -3.32%
Russell 2000 620.39 -25.97 -4.02%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.6885% -0.0709% -2.57%
FTSE 5265.82 +20.61 +0.39%
NIKKEI 225 9212.59 -80.26 -0.87%

 

The S & P fell to, and held, the previous sequential low of 1088, which is coincident with its 10-week moving average at that same level. While this is important technical support, I think it is rather obvious that the uptrend was broken and that the market failed after several opportunities to move above its June intraday high of 1130. Anyone that did ratchet up their stops was probably taken out. There was nothing to be optimistic about in yesterday’s action. The weakest groups were led by the Banks and were all economically sensitive sectors. The top performing groups, even though down, were all the most defensive of groups, including non-durable Household Products, Telecomm, Food, Beverage, Tobacco, and Utilities. Earnings season is behind us, and what little is left, i. e. Cisco, is of no help. Looking forward, housing and jobs data are not expected to improve. Q2 GDP should get revised down after that June trade deficit report. Economic growth has slowed in June and July, and that’s the data we’ll be seeing for the next month or two. So who can we call on for help? The Fed shot its wad. Congress has no intention of cooperating ahead of elections. This was our reasoning for turning more negative in August and now the technical supports have given way. Even if we get a bounce off of 1088, it should be sold into. The August high is in place. We are now looking for a “test” at or above the July low, S & P 1010, by October. Maybe we’ll consider getting bullish then.


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click graph for larger image


  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,379 10,238 10,782 9,622 11,000 ADV 396 259
S & P 1089 1088 1130 1011 1150 DECL 2686 2340
COMP 2209 2218 2341 2061 2400 TRIN 5.75 2.64
NDX 1845 1833 1939 1700 1983 UVOL 30,462k 102,971k
10-Yld 2.689 2.810 3.071 2.612 3.240 DVOL 1,130,307k 2,147,483k
RUT 620 639 677 587 705 TVOL 1,162,764k 2,261,756k