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May 22, 2012 5:08 AM EDT
Updated: Aug 4, 2010 8:30 AM EDT  

Financials

Lindblom, Ledwith, Mayerhofer (212) 829-5482

News and Views

 

Financials seemed to sit on sidelines yesterday, as Monday’s bank earning’s buzz fizzled. Few positive takes were the XLF traded down to 200 day @ $14.91, but was able to hold as rumblings of a downward revision of Q2 GDP made its rounds and MET trading well after pricing 75 mln shs @ $42. We didn’t see the flipper traffic we’ve been accustom to.  Mortgage Insurers took another hit after RDN’s earnings shortfall, this group remains heavily shorted. Despite Mastercard’s better numbers and Meredith’s positive comments, credit cards stalled yesterday.


Macro/Technicals

XLF : -0.01; -0.07
KIE : -0.20; -0.52
KRE : -0.11; -0.46
C : -0.04; -0.97
BAC : +0.02; +0.14
JPM : +0.07; +0.17
GS : -1.77; -1.16
WFC : +0.05; +0.18

Leaders: STC 7.6%, OZM 5.5%, WTNY 4.7%, LAZ 3.3%, MELI 3.1%, HMPR 2.7%, LAB 1.8%, FCF 1.7%
Laggards: RDN (19.6%), III (9.5%), OCN (7.82%), FSR (7.6%), ABK (7.5%), FMR (7%), CNO (6.03%)

Active Names

 

Big Banks  -  BAC, C, WFC, JPM, GS, MS, FITB, STT, USB, HBAN, HCBK, PBCT, FHN, RF, BBT

Mid/SmallcapBanks/S&L-  FBP, WAL, EWBC, GSBC, HMPR, IBKC, PRWT, RBPAA, WBCO,NYB,DCOM,SBIB,CVBF,GAIN,LKFN,TFSL,IBCP,BRKL

Brokers  KCG, SCHW, AMTD, ETFCD

Asset Managers/Inv co’s-  BX, FIG, GLG, GROW, JNS, LAZ, MF, LM,KFN

Insurance-  GNW, HIG, MET, ALL, TRV

CreditCards-  AXP, COF, MA, V, DFS

Specialty Finance/Mort Insurers-   ACAS, ABK, MBI, MTG, RDN

 


Earnings

 

UNM Unum Group reports Q2 EPS $0.69 ex-items vs Reuters $0.67 ($22.71)- The company is maintaining its previously stated outlook for full year 2010 and anticipates operating earnings growth for the year to be in a range of four percent to six percent. Earnings conference call reminder: 8/4/2010 at 09:00 ET. 866.575.6540 pw:8096394

AXS Axis Capital Holdings reports Q2 EPS $1.33 vs Reuters $1.17 ($31.38)- Company reports net premiums written of $788.9M vs Reuters $727.6M. Earnings conference call reminder: 8/4/2010 at 08:00 ET. 866.843.0890 pw:7993264

XL- XL Capital reports Q2 EPS $0.71 vs Reuters $0.64 ($17.80)-

ACF -AmeriCredit reports Q4 EPS $0.61 vs Reuters $0.42 ($24.10)- Company reports revenues of $361.7M vs Reuters $352.3M.

CNO -CNO Financial Group reports Q2 net operating income $0.16/sh ($5.30)
CAP -CAI International reports Q2 EPS $0.31 vs Reuters $0.24 ($13.08)- Company reports revenues of $17.4M vs Reuters $17.9M.

NATL -National Interstate reports Q2 EPS $0.39 vs Reuters $0.45 ($22.17)- Earnings conference call reminder: 8/4/2010 at 10:00 ET. 888.679.8035 pw:98055123

ACAS American Capital reports Q2 net operating income $0.09 vs Reuters $0.14 ($5.30) -Earnings conference call reminder: 8/4/2010 at 11:00 ET. 877.569.8701 pw:88487445

CACC Credit Acceptance Corp. reports Q2 EPS $1.32 ex-items vs Reuters $1.13

NFP National Financial Partners reports Q2 EPS $0.47 ex-items vs Reuters $0.50 ($11.10). Company reports revenues of $234.9M vs a single estimate of $230.2M. Earnings conference call reminder: 8/4/2010 at 08:00 ET. 617.597.5392 pw:NFP

PRI Primerica reports Q2 operating EPS $0.49 vs Reuters $0.37 ($22.60)- Company reports operating revenues of $233.9M vs Reuters $209.9M

HCC HCC Insurance reports Q2 EPS $0.72 vs Reuters $0.71 ($26.13)- The GAAP combined ratio for Q2 of 2010 was 85.6%, compared to 83.8% for the same quarter of 2009, and 88.0% in H1 of 2010, compared to 85.5% in the corresponding period of 2009. Earnings conference call reminder: 8/4/2010 at 09:00 ET. 800.374.0290

GBL GAMCO Investors reports Q2 EPS $0.30 vs Reuters $0.39 -- 1 estimate ($39.70)- Company reports revenues of $62.5M vs a single estimate of $60.0M.

PL Protective Life reports Q2 operating EPS $0.62 vs Reuters $0.62 ($22.32)

FFBC First Financial Bancorp reports Q2 EPS $0.30 vs Reuters $0.26 ($16.24)- Earnings conference call reminder: 8/4/2010 at 09:00 ET. 877.317.6789

ORIT Oritani Financial reports Q4 EPS ($0.11) vs Reuters ($0.04) -- 1 estimate- Provision for loan losses was $2.5M vs $2.5M q/q and $2.1M y/y.

 


Sector News, M&A, Capital Raises

 

MMC Marsh & McLennan completes sale of Kroll to Altegrity ($23.93)- MMC sold Kroll to Altegrity in an all-cash transaction valued at $1.13B.

C Citi to put Egg up for sale - FT ($4.13)- The FT cites people familiar with the situation who say that Citi plans to put its UK online bank up for sale as part of an effort to shed billions of dollars of non-core assets. According to analysts, Egg could draw interest from UK and international players, including Spain's Santander (STD) and Tesco's Metro Bank. Citi acquired Egg from Prudential (PRU.LN) three years ago for £575M.

BAC Bank of America spins off part of middle-market private-equity arm - FT ($14.34)- The bank has pushed Banc of America Capital Investors into Ridgemont Equity Partners, in which it is the only investor right now. A partner says the decision had been under discussion for a while, but a move was precipitated by last month's financial-reform bill in Washington. Sources say BAC also wanrs to concentrate on private-equity investments in large companies.

DFS Discover Financial US Spending Monitor falls 1.9 points in July to 86.5 ($15.54)- The third straight monthly drop involved 26% of consumers' saying they plan to cut their spending in the coming month, vs 23% in June. Nonetheless, people feel better about their finances, with 36% describing them as being in good or excellent shape, vs 33% in June. 21% of people feel their personal finances are improving, vs 20% in June.

TRV WSJ is positive on The Travelers Co ($50.12)- A "Heard on the Street" column can't figure out why Travelers trades at a lower multiple the JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and regional banks. It points out that Travelers has a strong balance sheet, a 2.9% dividend yield and has cut outstanding shares by 20% over the past year. The column lists unsurprising reasons that banks are unattractive, and while it concedes that banks will outpace TRV if the economy suddenly recovers, it thinks that in a mediocre economy, TRV is easily the better choice.

 

o    Banks Continue to Suffer From Weak Revenue: Whitney – CNBC link

§  Meredith Whitney appeared on CNBC and was about as bearish as ever, not only on financials, but on housing as well. In addition to saying that she expects the housing market to get worse in Q3 and Q4, reiterated  that all the recent earnings beats by financials have been an accounting sham

o    End of the John Mack Era at Morgan Stanley – CNBC link

o    EU financials in focus…today

§  Lloyds beats….up 1.5% today

§  Soc Gen big beat on earnings

§  Standard Chartered Plc, fell as much as 4.9 percent in London trading….the U.K. bank that gets more than three quarters of its earnings from Asia, posted record six-month profit as provisions for bad loans fell by more than half.

§  Munich Re's earnings beat analyst estimates and company raised it outlook for gross premium revenues. Shares opened 1.1% after the results.

§   Legal and General opened up by 0.7% as company reported a growth in earnings

§  Allied Irish Banks Plc tumbled 6.3% to €0.925 after reporting a wider first-half loss.

§  Insurance companies mostly beat estimates today in EU:

·         Munich Re, beats est..better gains on investments.  

·         AXA dn 2% - beat ests…

o    Insurers May Face Shift on Payouts – WSJ

§  Insurers may face changes in the way they make payouts on life insurance, said state regulators who are leading a review of now-controversial money-market-like accounts for death benefits.

§  Currently, some insurers automatically put policy proceeds into so-called retained-asset accounts for some beneficiaries rather than giving them the option of a check for the full amount

§  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704499604575407713185368310.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_business

o    LAZ Lazard announces secondary offering on behalf of holders

o    McGraw dismisses claim that credit rating agencies caused the crisis

§  Harold "Terry" McGraw III, chairman and CEO of McGraw-Hill, which owns Standard & Poor's, challenged a charge by a Chinese credit rating agency that Western counterparts are responsible for the financial crisis. "If you're in a populist mood, you've got to find the villain," he told Financial Times. Google/Agence France-Presse (04 Aug.)

·         BAC and PNC may divest BLK BlackRock under Basel- Reuters

o    Bank of America and PNC Financial Services Group may be forced to sell their stakes in asset manager BlackRock under far-reaching rules proposed last week by the Basel Committee of Bank Supervision

o    The rules, known as the Basel III capital requirements, would effectively prevent banks from holding big stakes in other companies

o    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6724UX20100803

 


Research Away

 

MET MetLife upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America Merrill Lynch ($41.68)- Target is $53.

TCBI Texas Capital upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse ($16.86)- The firm believes shares are undervalued. Target is $21.


Cantor Research

 

For the full pdf report, click the below link.
https://cantor.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/1a8543b4-2b2d-4a15-91a6-860bba9a293f.pdf


Top Events/Earnings Calendar

 

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

04

Before
NNN
BGCP
ICE
LSE
NEWS
IVR

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During

Unkn.

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After
OFG
ALL
CATM
HIG
AMSF
HCN
MXGL
FRT
HT
AEL
EQY
ESS
KRG
PRA
PRU
REG
RWT
NAVG
PRE

05

Before
JOE
MCGC
PMT
OHI
FIG
IPCC
MPW
NRF
QCCO
TICC
ARCC
FNM
HPT
MF
CBOE

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During
ZNT

Unkn.

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After
PSB
CLMS
FFG
AWH
CIM
CSA
DCT
HME
MAA
NGPC
PSA
WRI
YSI
AGO

06

Before
BAM
AIG
SHO

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During

Unkn.

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After
HGIC


Disclaimer: Prepared by staff of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. ("Cantor") and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision, should not be considered a recommendation by Cantor or any other person and does not constitute an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment nor is it a confirmation of terms. Any calculations and valuations presented herein are intended as a basis for discussion. Sources of information are believed to be reliable but Cantor makes no representation and gives no warranty that the information contained herein is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates given may change. Cantor undertakes no obligation to provide recipients with any additional information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. This material is intended solely for institutional investors and investors who Cantor reasonably believes are institutional investors. Cantor, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs or claims howsoever arising from any inaccuracies or omissions in the information contained herein or any reliance on that information. Cantor may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different or adverse to your interests. No liability is accepted by Cantor for any loss that may arise from any use of the information contained herein or derived here from. This product may not be reproduced or redistributed outside the recipient's organization. Sources: Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Dow Jones, Marketwatch, Trade-Alert, and the Wall Street Journal. ***All eco data from Bloomberg and DJ