Morning Comment
| Close | Change | % Change | |
| DJ Industrials | 10,465.94 | -1.22 | -0.01% |
| S & P | 11011.60 | +0.07 | +0.01% |
| NASDAQ | 2254.70 | +3.01 | +0.13% |
| NYSE | 6998.99 | +4.42 | +0.06% |
| Russell 2000 | 650.89 | +0.46 | +0.06% |
| 10-Yr T-Yield | 2.905% | -0.0742% | -2.49% |
| FTSE | 5363.73 | +105.71 | +2.01% |
| NIKKEI 225 | 9570.31 | +33.01 | +0.34% |
Friday was a real “eye-opener”. GDP may have come in at 2.4%, but there were weaknesses within the report that confirm the consumer was much weaker than anticipated. Personal Consumption was up just 1.6% versus expectations for a gain of 2.4%. Q1 was revised down to a gain of 1.9% from 3.0%. However, Overall GDP was revised higher for Q1, up 1.0% to 3.7% from 2.7%. Some of this data were stole from Q4, which saw downward revisions. Inventories did contribute just over 1.0% to GDP, a total of $75.7 billion. However, the bounce in inventory rebuild comes after falling $546.8 billion from Q4 2008 through all of 2009, so it is a fraction of what was lost. Still, it was disappointing and the marked reacted smartly. Two July Fed reports were released on manufacturing, one from the Chicago and the other from Milwaukee. They would have been unimportant, except that they were huge misses, and to the upside. New Orders were stronger, even as production moved up to meet demand. Therefore, the consumer might be retracting, but business and manufacturing are expanding. That restored a sense of balance between the GDP and Fed reports, forcing the day to end “balanced” or nearly unchanged. After the poor start, the bulls can claim some sort of victory. However, the economic news is moving back into the lead position, and today’s national ISM Manufacturing Index should overshadow anything from the regional Feds, so it had better be good news.
| Last | Hrly Support | Hrly Resist | ST Support | ST Resist | NYSE | NASDAQ | ||
| INDU | 10,466 | 10,000 | 10,594 | 9,622 | 10,783 | ADV | 1773 | 1411 |
| S & P | 1102 | 1056 | 1130 | 1011 | 1150 | DECL | 1251 | 1159 |
| COMP | 2255 | 2160 | 2341 | 2061 | 2400 | TRIN | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| NDX | 1864 | 1785 | 1939 | 1700 | 1983 | UVOL | 624,982k | 1,105,356k |
| 10-Yld | 2.905 | 2.878 | 3.142 | 2.810 | 3.240 | DVOL | 533,274k | 1,25,148k |
| RUT | 651 | 601 | 677 | 587 | 705 | TVOL | 1,176,053k | 2,167,215k |
