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May 22, 2012 3:18 AM EDT
Updated: Jul 27, 2010 6:31 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,525.43 +100.81 +0.97%
S & P 1115.01 +12.35 +1.12%
NASDAQ 2296.43 +26.96 +1.19%
NYSE 7046.00 +80.89 +1.16%
Russell 2000 665.22 +14.57 +2.24%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.9924% -0.0019% -0.06%
FTSE 5395.28 +44.16 +0.83%
NIKKEI 225 9496.85 -6.81 -0.07%

 

One of the major complaints about yesterday’s gain was that it was on extremely light volume for being in the middle of earnings season. This is true. summer rallies are traditionally the least strong, as many are rotating though vacations and public participation is low. In the long run, we may point to the slow volume as a technical divergence. However, in the short-term, we are still looking at a rally that is seasonally correct, has the support of solid leadership, and breadth has been exceptionally positive. Under these circumstances, I would not ignore a rally that simply lacks volume. Remember, I’m hoping for 1150 before coming under pressure in the Fall. That’s not all that far away. In the meantime, the S & P joined the Dow and NASDAQ by closing above its 200-day moving average. The Dow Transports have been exceptionally strong. FedEx was a major component in moving that index higher. The fact that the Transports, which are extremely sensitive to commerce, is doing quite well indicates positive economic activity. It may not be robust enough to warrant GDP growth at 3%, but earnings are weighed against expectations. The pessimists have beaten down estimates, so we’re seeing far more companies beat than miss. That is a positive for the market. The same is true of New Home Sales. 330k is not a great number, but it was better than anticipated. This is something we can live with. There is a very full calendar of earnings and data this week, and expectations remain low.


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  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,525 10,000 10,594 9622 10,783 ADV 2457 2018
S & P 1115 1056 1130 1011 1150 DECL 852 618
COMP 2296 2160 2341 2061 2400 TRIN 0.62 0.38
NDX 1890 1785 1939 1700 1983 UVOL 880,729k 1,936,377k
10-Yld 2.992 2.878 3.142 2.810 3.240 DVOL 128,656k 233,063k
RUT 665 601 677 587 705 TVOL 1,017,990k 2,183,079k