Morning Comment
| Close | Change | % Change | |
| DJ Industrials | 10,525.43 | +100.81 | +0.97% |
| S & P | 1115.01 | +12.35 | +1.12% |
| NASDAQ | 2296.43 | +26.96 | +1.19% |
| NYSE | 7046.00 | +80.89 | +1.16% |
| Russell 2000 | 665.22 | +14.57 | +2.24% |
| 10-Yr T-Yield | 2.9924% | -0.0019% | -0.06% |
| FTSE | 5395.28 | +44.16 | +0.83% |
| NIKKEI 225 | 9496.85 | -6.81 | -0.07% |
One of the major complaints about yesterday’s gain was that it was on extremely light volume for being in the middle of earnings season. This is true. summer rallies are traditionally the least strong, as many are rotating though vacations and public participation is low. In the long run, we may point to the slow volume as a technical divergence. However, in the short-term, we are still looking at a rally that is seasonally correct, has the support of solid leadership, and breadth has been exceptionally positive. Under these circumstances, I would not ignore a rally that simply lacks volume. Remember, I’m hoping for 1150 before coming under pressure in the Fall. That’s not all that far away. In the meantime, the S & P joined the Dow and NASDAQ by closing above its 200-day moving average. The Dow Transports have been exceptionally strong. FedEx was a major component in moving that index higher. The fact that the Transports, which are extremely sensitive to commerce, is doing quite well indicates positive economic activity. It may not be robust enough to warrant GDP growth at 3%, but earnings are weighed against expectations. The pessimists have beaten down estimates, so we’re seeing far more companies beat than miss. That is a positive for the market. The same is true of New Home Sales. 330k is not a great number, but it was better than anticipated. This is something we can live with. There is a very full calendar of earnings and data this week, and expectations remain low.
| Last | Hrly Support | Hrly Resist | ST Support | ST Resist | NYSE | NASDAQ | ||
| INDU | 10,525 | 10,000 | 10,594 | 9622 | 10,783 | ADV | 2457 | 2018 |
| S & P | 1115 | 1056 | 1130 | 1011 | 1150 | DECL | 852 | 618 |
| COMP | 2296 | 2160 | 2341 | 2061 | 2400 | TRIN | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| NDX | 1890 | 1785 | 1939 | 1700 | 1983 | UVOL | 880,729k | 1,936,377k |
| 10-Yld | 2.992 | 2.878 | 3.142 | 2.810 | 3.240 | DVOL | 128,656k | 233,063k |
| RUT | 665 | 601 | 677 | 587 | 705 | TVOL | 1,017,990k | 2,183,079k |
