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May 22, 2012 3:05 AM EDT
Updated: Jul 26, 2010 6:30 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,424.62 +102.32 +0.99%
S & P 1102.66 +8.99 +0.82%
NASDAQ 2269.47 +23.58 +1.05%
NYSE 6965.11 +63.20 +0.92%
Russell 2000 650.65 +15.17 +2.39%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.9943% +0.0590% +2.01%
FTSE 5314.45 +1.83 +0.03%
NIKKEI 225 9503.66 +72.70 +0.76%

 

Earnings took the lead over weak economic data and global concerns. Friday, the “stress test” for European banks came out “better than feared” but not as strong as one might have hoped. Still, it was good enough that the averages finished the week on a positive note, erasing the weakness of the prior week and closing at key technical levels. Starting with the Euro, Friday’s good news helped lift the Euro versus the Dollar back near 2-1/2 month highs. The Euro faces technical resistance at 1.3260 and significant overhead supply at 1.35. The S & P closed at its highest level since late June and just under its 200-day moving average, now at 1113. Resistance is initially at that level, then some resistance at 1130. If we push to 1150 by the first week of August, I intend to become very cautious, just as a warning. We are in the sweet spot. Earnings should carry as much weigh as the economic data. There are many economic reports out this week, but most of the attention will be focused on the 2nd quarter GDP report due out on Friday. While the official estimate is for growth of 2.5%, I expect the whisper number to fall to 2.0% by week’s end. Expectations are low, and that continues to give the bulls the advantage. Technically, the pattern remains a consolidation that was just breaking out on Friday with good breadth. We’ll need to see a follow-through, but the short-term is up, while the long term is still leaning toward a negative bias.


click graph for larger image


click graph for larger image


  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,425 10,000 10,594 9622 10,783 ADV 2437 1996
S & P 1103 1056 1130 1011 1150 DECL 600 568
COMP 2269 2160 2341 2061 2400 TRIN 1.02 1.48
NDX 1875 1785 1939 1700 1983 UVOL 912,468k 1,651,590k
10-Yld 2.994 2.878 3.142 2.810 3.240 DVOL 229,801k 717,946k
RUT 651 601 677 587 705 TVOL 1,150,987k 2,410,605k