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May 22, 2012 1:44 AM EDT
Updated: Jul 9, 2010 6:41 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,138.99 +120.71 +1.20%
S & P 1070.25 +9.98 +0.94%
NASDAQ 2175.40 +15.93 +0.74%
NYSE 6755.82 +70.04 +1.05%
Russell 2000 620.27 +8.61 +1.41%
10-Yr T-Yield 3.0234% +0.0431% +1.41%
FTSE 5121.15 +15.70 +0.31%
NIKKEI 225 9585.32 +49.58 +0.52%

 

It’s not like the news was suddenly that much better. In fact, I would argue that the news wasn’t all that great yesterday, but the rally marched onward. The Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 454,000 from 475,000, but there may be seasonal adjustments related to the auto mfgrs. not doing their usual 2-week layoffs this year. Overall, jobs aren’t the issue. We all know the data are worse than are being reported. June retail same-store sales were a mixed bag, with some companies offering guidance that only moved the company view to where the street already was. I would note that yesterday’s rally was mainly in the groups that lagged or missed out on the prior day’s strength. The Semis, Retail, and Banks were the heart and soul of Wednesday’s explosive rally. However, yesterday was Household Products, Food & Tobacco, Materials, Capital Goods, and Energy. If this were a “flight to safety” move, then we would have expected strength in the Dollar and in bonds, neither of which occurred. Therefore, this looked more like an evening out of the market rally to bring the laggards back in line with the idea that the bad news is already baked in the cake and that there is more room for the bulls to run, if properly prodded by earnings. The rally over the past two days was “the easy stuff”. 1040 was resistance, but not really overhead supply. That pretty much comes into play right here at 1070. The key resistance is the 200-day moving average at 1111, and we’ll need help from earnings to challenge that level.


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click graph for larger image


  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,139 9487 10,320 9034 10,500 ADV 2383 1817
S & P 1070 994 1093 969 1120 DECL 772 844
COMP 2175 2049 2218 1931 2274 TRIN .85 .95
NDX 1798 1673 1838 1633 1882 UVOL 941,980k 1,421,991k
10-Yld 3.024 2.879 3.142 2.530 3.240 DVOL 214,406k 569,231k
RUT 620 580 638 562 662 TVOL 1,166,423k 2,046,853k