Morning Comment
| Close | Change | % Change | |
| DJ Industrials | 9743.62 | +57.14 | +0.59% |
| S & P | 1028.06 | +5.48 | +0.54% |
| NASDAQ | 2093.88 | +2.09 | +0.10% |
| NYSE | 6486.12 | +51.31 | +0.80% |
| Russell 2000 | 590.03 | -8.94 | -1.49% |
| 10-Yr T-Yield | 2.9373% | -0.0360% | -1.21% |
| FTSE | 4926.52 | -38.48 | -0.78% |
| NIKKEI 225 | 9279.65 | -58.39 | -0.63% |
The rally, spurred by several small catalysts over the weekend, helped lift the US averages at the open. The French Economy Minister said the European banks would pass the stress test. Australia left their key interest rates unchanged. The Bank of Japan may ease credit restrictions. Even our ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was shy of consensus, but that forecast was from weeks ago, so the real estimate was likely for worse than the 53.8 reading. The SIA reported May chip sales up 4.5%. However, in a precursor to what you might see in Tech and other sectors, the year over year increase was 48%. We are going to see comps to Q2 2009 that will be quite impressive. Of course, Wall Street is a forward looking discounting mechanism, so it will be listening for what companies say about their Q3 outlook. However, the expectations are for dire forecasts, so it will require a very negative outlook to overwhelm the market from here. Yesterday’s big rally unwound, not because of any specific news that I saw. The internals reflected very different outcomes. For instance, the VIX was down, the NYSE Index was up .8%, and Breadth was 1500 up to 1539 down. However, the Russell 2k lost 1.5% and the NASDAQ Breadth was 886 up to 1748 down. Technically, the S & P rallied back up to 1040 and couldn’t penetrate resistance, so the bears gained the upper hand. Overall, it still looks like consolidation for the week, as we look forward to earnings season providing a catalyst.
| Last | Hrly Support | Hrly Resist | ST Support | ST Resist | NYSE | NASDAQ | ||
| INDU | 9744 | 9487 | 10,114 | 9034 | 10,360 | ADV | 1500 | 886 |
| S & P | 1028 | 944 | 1074 | 969 | 1093 | DECL | 1539 | 1748 |
| COMP | 2094 | 2049 | 2218 | 1931 | 2274 | TRIN | 0.78 | 0.53 |
| NDX | 1735 | 1673 | 1838 | 1633 | 1882 | UVOL | 684,838k | 1,055,872k |
| 10-Yld | 2.937 | 2.879 | 3.142 | 2.530 | 3.240 | DVOL | 546,753k | 1,083,163k |
| RUT | 590 | 580 | 638 | 562 | 662 | TVOL | 1,315,646k | 2,169,894k |
