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May 22, 2012 1:29 AM EDT
Updated: Jul 7, 2010 6:39 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 9743.62 +57.14 +0.59%
S & P 1028.06 +5.48 +0.54%
NASDAQ 2093.88 +2.09 +0.10%
NYSE 6486.12 +51.31 +0.80%
Russell 2000 590.03 -8.94 -1.49%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.9373% -0.0360% -1.21%
FTSE 4926.52 -38.48 -0.78%
NIKKEI 225 9279.65 -58.39 -0.63%

 

The rally, spurred by several small catalysts over the weekend, helped lift the US averages at the open. The French Economy Minister said the European banks would pass the stress test. Australia left their key interest rates unchanged. The Bank of Japan may ease credit restrictions. Even our ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was shy of consensus, but that forecast was from weeks ago, so the real estimate was likely for worse than the 53.8 reading. The SIA reported May chip sales up 4.5%. However, in a precursor to what you might see in Tech and other sectors, the year over year increase was 48%. We are going to see comps to Q2 2009 that will be quite impressive. Of course, Wall Street is a forward looking discounting mechanism, so it will be listening for what companies say about their Q3 outlook. However, the expectations are for dire forecasts, so it will require a very negative outlook to overwhelm the market from here. Yesterday’s big rally unwound, not because of any specific news that I saw. The internals reflected very different outcomes. For instance, the VIX was down, the NYSE Index was up .8%, and Breadth was 1500 up to 1539 down. However, the Russell 2k lost 1.5% and the NASDAQ Breadth was 886 up to 1748 down. Technically, the S & P rallied back up to 1040 and couldn’t penetrate resistance, so the bears gained the upper hand. Overall, it still looks like consolidation for the week, as we look forward to earnings season providing a catalyst.


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  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 9744 9487 10,114 9034 10,360 ADV 1500 886
S & P 1028 944 1074 969 1093 DECL 1539 1748
COMP 2094 2049 2218 1931 2274 TRIN 0.78 0.53
NDX 1735 1673 1838 1633 1882 UVOL 684,838k 1,055,872k
10-Yld 2.937 2.879 3.142 2.530 3.240 DVOL 546,753k 1,083,163k
RUT 590 580 638 562 662 TVOL 1,315,646k 2,169,894k