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May 18, 2012 1:46 PM EDT
Updated: Jul 1, 2010 6:27 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 9774.02 -96.28 -0.98%
S & P 1030.71 -10.53 -1.01%
NASDAQ 2109.24 -25.94 -1.21%
NYSE 6469.65 -50.44 -0.77%
Russell 2000 609.49 -6.47 -1.05%
10-Yr T-Yield 2.9149% -0.0342% -1.16%
FTSE 4882.26 -34.61 -0.70%
NIKKEI 225 9191.060 -191.04 -2.04%

 

Well, it happened, the end of the world. The S & P finally broke the 1040 level. As we unwound a lousy quarter, the window dressing unloaded equities and sent the market averages lower. However, the news wasn’t all that bad. Okay, the ADP estimate of 13,000 is way below the 60,000 anticipated, but the MBA mortgage applications for the week surged 8.8%. The Chicago PMI was better than expected, with New Orders holding at a solid 59.1 as employment moved back above 50 to 54.2. However, the economy wasn’t the story. Neither was Europe, even as the expiration of the 442 billion Euro 1-year notes required only 132 billion 3-month loans. Expectations were for 250 to 300 billion Euros. The attention was on the quarter and the support. However, even as the S & P faded below 1040, the VIX was down. In the final minutes, the VIX did push to the plus side, but the action intraday showed no signs of panic. Don’t forget, breaking 1040 is supposed to be the end of the world. The only group in the green was Autos, and that was due to Ford repaying $4 billion in debt to the union. Despite the fact that every group was down, the advance/decline was just 11 to 19 on the NYSE. If this were a broadbased panic out of the market, then we’d expect weaker relative performance from the Russell 2000, but it was pretty much in line with the decline in the S & P. The bears have everything they’ve ever asked for, a break of technical support and a weakening economy. If they can’t do something early, watch out for short covering


click graph for larger image


click graph for larger image


  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 9774 9810 10,652 9428 10,871 ADV 1118 927
S & P 1031 1040 1150 1005 1172 DECL 1918 1672
COMP 2109 2158 2367 2100 2417 TRIN 1.54 2.80
NDX 1739 1778 19000 1713 1975 UVOL 377,037k 353,354k
10-Yld 2.915 2.910 3.565 2.870 3.704 DVOL 1,024,104k 1,739,471k
RUT 609 617 686 599 708 TVOL 1,421,665k 2,221,561k