It always worries me when I see everyone on one side of the trade. In every article I read, every reporter, commentator, and newscaster, every economist and analyst, and, yes, every broker and PM that sends me an e-mail or IM thinks 1040 is support, it makes me wonder. When Goldman, Cramer, and Sue Herara report that we are seeing a head and shoulder top, I have to wonder what $30 pattern recognition program could have possibly missed it. It’s not that I’m wildly bullish on the market or the economy, but this decline came on the heels of old news, yet the reaction was severe. Institutional money should already be allocated in sectors they way fund managers want to finish the quarter, save for a little dry powder. Volume couldn’t hit a billion shares on Monday. This market is reacting to the S & P at 1040 like everyone is a technician. The index fell to 1040 in early trading, bounced, and then saved breaking it until the last half hour of trading, as if to try and trigger stop-loss orders below the obvious support. When it didn’t work, some shorts covered. There are few institutional bulls taking positions, at least serious positions, on the final trading day of the quarter. The question is, should the market fall to the projections that are so obvious coming out of a “head and shoulders top”? That projection would be 865. One concern was an expiring 1-year ECB loan facility. The lower than expected demand for reissuance was seen as a gauge of banking need, which was light and is good news.