Morning Comment
| Close | Change | % Change | |
| DJ Industrials | 10,442.41 | -8.23 | -0.08% |
| S & P | 1113.20 | -4.31 | -0.39% |
| NASDAQ | 2289.09 | -20.71 | -0.90% |
| NYSE | 6978.86 | -9.38 | -0.13% |
| Russell 2000 | 660.03 | -6.89 | -1.03% |
| 10-Yr T-Yield | 3.2414% | +0.0219% | +0.68% |
| FTSE | 5218.20 | -80.91 | -1.53% |
| NIKKEI 225 | 10,112.89 | -125.12 | -1.22% |
China’s comments on allowing the Yuan to appreciate provided the otherwise directionless market with a solid boost at the open. The Euro, excited by the prospect of having better trading leverage through its currency, rallied and sent the European markets higher. The rise in the Euro also sent the “usual suspects” higher, including that making up the risk trade. Monday was also the first day post quadruple witching expiration. That may have contributed to the push in the morning. Technically, the opening spurt sent the S & P to 1131, just touching the 50% retracement factor of the entire April/May decline. Gann Theory and Fibonacci use 50% retracements as resistance, but that shouldn’t be interpreted as necessarily the end of rally. It is just a level that can be used as a target for a rally point after a big decline. Therefore, after hitting that point and starting to back off, the bears jumped on it, saying it was the end of this rally. I would not be so quick. If we were overbought or the market was coming off of a pattern that showed distribution in this area, it may be more valid. However, we are still under the neutral level on the indicators, moving up from being deeply oversold. We also broke out above the 200-day moving average and a small “double-bottom” pattern. Timing-wise, we are entering a more favorable earnings season. Don’t get wrapped up on one indicator grabbing headlines. The Euro weakness provided the catalyst for the late-day selloff. Keep an eye on the Euro trading today for direction.
| Last | Hrly Support | Hrly Resist | ST Support | ST Resist | NYSE | NASDAQ | ||
| INDU | 10,442 | 9810 | 10,652 | 9428 | 10,871 | ADV | 1268 | 861 |
| S & P | 1113 | 1040 | 1150 | 1005 | 1172 | DECL | 1794 | 1771 |
| COMP | 2289 | 2158 | 2367 | 2100 | 2417 | TRIN | .82 | 1.42 |
| NDX | 1896 | 1778 | 1900 | 1713 | 1975 | UVOL | 461,378k | 489,039k |
| 10-Yld | 3.241 | 3.152 | 3.565 | 3.049 | 3.704 | DVOL | 5999,651k | 1,375,365k |
| RUT | 660 | 617 | 686 | 599 | 708 | TVOL | 1,067,466k | 1,906,658k |
