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May 18, 2012 12:49 PM EDT
Updated: Jun 22, 2010 6:32 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,442.41 -8.23 -0.08%
S & P 1113.20 -4.31 -0.39%
NASDAQ 2289.09 -20.71 -0.90%
NYSE 6978.86 -9.38 -0.13%
Russell 2000 660.03 -6.89 -1.03%
10-Yr T-Yield 3.2414% +0.0219% +0.68%
FTSE 5218.20 -80.91 -1.53%
NIKKEI 225 10,112.89 -125.12 -1.22%

 

China’s comments on allowing the Yuan to appreciate provided the otherwise directionless market with a solid boost at the open. The Euro, excited by the prospect of having better trading leverage through its currency, rallied and sent the European markets higher. The rise in the Euro also sent the “usual suspects” higher, including that making up the risk trade. Monday was also the first day post quadruple witching expiration. That may have contributed to the push in the morning. Technically, the opening spurt sent the S & P to 1131, just touching the 50% retracement factor of the entire April/May decline. Gann Theory and Fibonacci use 50% retracements as resistance, but that shouldn’t be interpreted as necessarily the end of rally. It is just a level that can be used as a target for a rally point after a big decline. Therefore, after hitting that point and starting to back off, the bears jumped on it, saying it was the end of this rally. I would not be so quick. If we were overbought or the market was coming off of a pattern that showed distribution in this area, it may be more valid. However, we are still under the neutral level on the indicators, moving up from being deeply oversold. We also broke out above the 200-day moving average and a small “double-bottom” pattern. Timing-wise, we are entering a more favorable earnings season. Don’t get wrapped up on one indicator grabbing headlines. The Euro weakness provided the catalyst for the late-day selloff. Keep an eye on the Euro trading today for direction.


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  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,442 9810 10,652 9428 10,871 ADV 1268 861
S & P 1113 1040 1150 1005 1172 DECL 1794 1771
COMP 2289 2158 2367 2100 2417 TRIN .82 1.42
NDX 1896 1778 1900 1713 1975 UVOL 461,378k 489,039k
10-Yld 3.241 3.152 3.565 3.049 3.704 DVOL 5999,651k 1,375,365k
RUT 660 617 686 599 708 TVOL 1,067,466k 1,906,658k