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May 18, 2012 12:31 PM EDT
Updated: Jun 18, 2010 6:31 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,434.17 +24.71 +0.24%
S & P 1116.04 +1.43 +0.13%
NASDAQ 2307.16 +1.23 +0.05%
NYSE 6982.04 +5.96 +0.09%
Russell 2000 665.85 -0.28 -0.04%
10-Yr T-Yield 3.1941% -0.0660% -2.02%
FTSE 5259.06 +5.17 +0.10%
NIKKEI 225 9995.02 -4.38 -0.04%

 

I didn’t think that yesterday’s data was quite as negative as the market took it at first. Sure, the weekly jobless claims were disappointing. The projections for 450,000 seem to be more “wishful thinking” than derived from any of the data we’ve seen from other areas. 472,000 is certainly negative news, but not all that surprising heading into summer. The drop in the Philly Fed Index to 8.0 from 21.4 was also disappointing, but the weakness was mostly in the price components. New Orders were higher, Production was stable, and Inventories were up only slightly. Even though companies aren’t running out hiring new workers, the data that would indicate better profit margins and slightly improved earnings continue to suggest a positive 2nd quarter. That has helped keep investors interested in buying the dips. Heading into another Friday afternoon, it’s a tough call as to whether the shorts rush to cover or traders look to get flat before the weekend. Last week favored the bulls. With the S & P up 7% since a week ago last Tuesday, the shorts should be worried. The S & P closed on top of its 200-day moving average for three consecutive days. A “high-tight” consolidation is typically a continuation pattern. However, today lacks a catalyst. There’s no economic data due out. The Fed meets next week. Trading has become notably light over the past two weeks. That is a trend I expect to continue. Overall, the momentum indicators are inching higher and the VIX fell to its lowest close in a month.


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click graph for larger image


  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,434 9810 10,652 9428 10,871 ADV 1489 1300
S & P 1116 1040 1150 1005 1172 DECL 1524 1252
COMP 1207 2158 2367 2100 2417 TRIN 1.54 0.86
NDX 1911 1778 1900 1713 1975 UVOL 452,335k 953,277k
10-Yld 3.194 3.152 3.565 3.049 3.704 DVOL 693,254k 778,342k
RUT 666 617 686 599 708 TVOL 1,158,737k 1,773,229k