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May 18, 2012 12:06 PM EDT
Updated: Jun 15, 2010 7:25 AM EDT  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,190.89 -20.18 -0.20%
S & P 1089.63 -1.97 -0.18%
NASDAQ 2243.96 +0.36 +0.02%
NYSE 6817.97 +3.21 +0.05%
Russell 2000 352.27 +3.27 +0.50%
10-Yr T-Yield 3.2529% +0.0183% +0.56%
FTSE 5221.85 +19.72 +0.38%
NIKKEI 225 9887.89 +8.04 +0.08%

 

The Euro moved back into being the main catalyst for the market on Monday, as Euro-zone Industrial Production rose 0.8%. The Euro pushed above some key trading resistance levels, starting with the 21-day Fibonacci trading moving average. That line was at 1.2222. After pushing to 1.23, the index faded to close right at 1.2221. The catalyst for the pullback was obviously the Moody’s downgrade of Greek government debt. Since the US averages all rallied on the strength of the Euro, the gains were given up as the Euro faded. However, I would point out that the rally in each of the major indices took aim at some key resistance levels. The S & P edged just pennies above its June 3rd high and a couple points below its 200-day moving average, which is at 1108. The Dow actually edged through its moving average of 10,313. This reinforces the technical resistance of these levels. It may have been slightly disappointing to see the gains erode, but unless the momentum builds, I think this will be part of the consolidation that we are hoping will come out of this week, as we prepare for the earnings season. Today, the Empire State Index on activity in the NY area for June is out. It is not nearly as important a survey as the Philly Fed later this week, but it is the first June reading on manufacturing. Expectations are for 20.06 versus 19.11 in May. What we want to see is that any weakness starts attracting buyers. If that’s the case this week, it will bode well for the anticipated summer rally.


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  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,191 9810 10,652 9428 10,871 ADV 1881 1452
S & P 1090 1040 1150 1005 1172 DECL 1189 1144
COMP 2244 2158 2367 2100 2417 TRIN 1.40 1.29
NDX 1845 1778 1900 1713 1975 UVOL 573,128k 940,148k
10-Yld 3.253 3.152 3.565 3.049 3.704 DVOL 507,279k 905,755k
RUT 652 617 686 599 708 TVOL 1,140,437k 1,894,166k