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February 9, 2012 3:03 PM EST
Updated: Feb 24, 2010 8:12 AM EST  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,282.41 -100.97 -0.97%
S & P 1094.60 -13.41 -1.21%
NASDAQ 2213.44 -28.59 -1.28%
NYSE 6974.60 -103.93 -1.47%
Russell 2000 625.07 -7.18 -1.14%
10-Yr T-Yield 3.6853% -0.1103% -2.91%
FTSE 5326.30 +11.21 +0.21%
NIKKEI 225 10,198.83 -153.27 -1.48%

 

The catalyst for the start of the “testing” phase was the lack of Consumer Confidence. The index for February fell to 46.0 from 56.5. Expectations were for 55.0. Every component in the index was worse off. There was no silver lining. That weighed on economically sensitive issues, such as the Retailers. Technology was also lower, strained by the disappointing forecast from Brocade. Financials were also lower. A little bounce in the concern over Greek debt pushed the Dollar Index back up. That weighed on Basic Material and Energy stocks. That pretty much sums up the leadership sectors in this most recent bounce. Without their support, the averages started to roll over. It didn’t take much before it seemed likely that we were headed down for a “test” of the recent low. Traders pointed out that the rally had very little volume, and therefore little conviction. That sent the VIX up 7.5%, bouncing off of the 20 level. There is also uncertainty ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony today. Now that the Fed has raised the Discount rate, the Fed cannot be accused of falling too far behind the curve. We would expect Bernanke to stress that the move was not intended to be the start of the “exit strategy”. However, it was the first step in that direction. If the economy falters, the Fed will need to find other means to support the markets, now that they have set in motion an unwinding of the quantitative easing strategies. All eyes will be on Bernanke today, but we’re entering the session flat and waiting.


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  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,282 10,044 10,603 9,835 10,730 ADV 938 862
S & P 1095 1060 1130 1035 1150 DECL 2127 1725
COMP 2213 2148 2282 2114 2321 TRIN
NDX 1794 1739 1865 1712 1900 UVOL 137,633k 402,939k
10-Yld 3.683 3.667 3.855 3.572 3.910 DVOL 935,501k 1,797,451k
RUT 625 600 633 586 650 TVOL 1,080,141k 2,257,266k