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February 9, 2012 3:07 PM EST
Updated: Feb 16, 2010 6:30 AM EST  

Morning Comment

Close Change % Change
DJ Industrials 10,099.14 -45.05 -0.44%
S & P 1075.51 -2.96 -2.27%
NASDAQ 2183.53 +6.12 +0.28%
NYSE 2874.56 -24.16 -0.35%
Russell 2000 610.72 +5.26 +0.87%
10-Yr T-Yield 3.6909% -0.0019% -0.05%
FTSE 5210.59 +43.12 +0.83%
NIKKEI 225 10,034.25 +20.95 +0.21%

 

All things considered, I’d say Friday was a success. Clearly, the inclusion of Berkshire Hathaway into the S & P bolstered the volume. However, it was a solid performance in Technology, specifically Semiconductors, and a decent Retail Sales report for January that proved to be the comeback catalyst for the broader market. January Retail Sales rose more than anticipated, up 0.5%. Meanwhile, the data we’ve seen on inventories and from the regional Federal Reserves are that inventories are still being depleted, albeit at a slower pace. What this means is that we should still see an attempt at an inventory rebuild cycle being pushed out into the first quarter. Compare that with the circumstances in the first quarter of 2009. This should be a very positive comparison, but the focus on earnings really shouldn’t emerge until mid-March. That leaves us with the focus on housing, the dollar, and the global debt crisis. These issues remain at the forefront this week, as well as the FOMC minutes, which many will look through to see if there is any mention of an “exit strategy”. In addition, we are only now approaching technical resistance at Dow 10,270, S & P 1104, and NASDAQ 2200. Up until now, this has been the easy stuff. Last week was marred by bad weather. We would expect to see an increase in trading activity, as investors play catch-up to the news items out last week. Technically, this bounce has been weak, but the leadership has been positive. If we can’t get it in gear this week, I would look for a test soon.


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  Last Hrly Support Hrly Resist ST Support ST Resist   NYSE NASDAQ
INDU 10,099 9685 10,370 9487 10,513 ADV 1611 1537
S & P 1076 1035 1098 1019 1120 DECL 1396 1032
COMP 2184 2049 2227 2114 2021 TRIN 1.36 0.91
NDX 1779 1730 1821 1652 1862 UVOL 650,209k 1,303,552k
10-Yld 3.691 3.510 3.707 3.400 3.855 DVOL 758,737k 806,977k
RUT 611 567 617 552 633 TVOL 1,426,814k 2,256,618k